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????上月,，《財(cái)富》（Fortune）曾經(jīng)質(zhì)疑如果Facebook估值1000億美元，那么其股票是否還值得購(gòu)入,。當(dāng)時(shí)的結(jié)論是：或許值得購(gòu)買(mǎi),！昨天又傳來(lái)新消息：Facebook計(jì)劃將其首次公開(kāi)募股（IPO）發(fā)行股價(jià)定在28至35美元之間，這意味著這家年輕的科技巨頭有望實(shí)現(xiàn)770億至960億美元的估值。

????我們?cè)治鲞^(guò)如果Facebook估值達(dá)到1000億美元,，將會(huì)面臨哪些障礙,。不過(guò)，如果在首發(fā)日其股票的交易價(jià)接近最低定價(jià)區(qū)間,，比如說(shuō)為28美元,，而且當(dāng)日未實(shí)現(xiàn)反彈呢？那樣的情況將預(yù)示怎樣的前景,？

????按照EVA Dimensions公司【該公司提出了著名的經(jīng)濟(jì)增加值（EVA）理論——譯注】計(jì)算的數(shù)據(jù),，每股28美元意味著市場(chǎng)認(rèn)為Facebook營(yíng)收到2021年有望突破500億美元大關(guān)，換句話說(shuō),，F(xiàn)acebook營(yíng)收的年復(fù)合增長(zhǎng)率要達(dá)到30%,！這個(gè)數(shù)字令人驚訝，不過(guò),，相較于1000億美元估值,，即年?duì)I收達(dá)到680億美元，前者看來(lái)要容易實(shí)現(xiàn)得多,。上述營(yíng)收有一個(gè)前提條件：從現(xiàn)在起,，F(xiàn)acebook的利潤(rùn)率不會(huì)嚴(yán)重惡化。（考慮到Facebook的資金成本,，其利潤(rùn)率可謂高得嚇人,。去年，F(xiàn)acebook取得了37億美元營(yíng)收,，利潤(rùn)為10億美元——EVA Dimensions稱(chēng)之為“壟斷企業(yè)利潤(rùn)率”,。）

????我們之前提過(guò)，谷歌（Google）也曾碰到過(guò)類(lèi)似難題,，不過(guò)它最終發(fā)展到與其估值相符,，而其股價(jià)也扶搖直上，投資者們從85美元飛上云霄,，最終達(dá)到650美元,。

????Facebook股票將來(lái)的走勢(shì)很難預(yù)測(cè)。如果你認(rèn)為Facebook營(yíng)收將繼續(xù)瘋狂增長(zhǎng),，而利潤(rùn)率又不會(huì)急劇下滑的話,，那么現(xiàn)在似乎正是購(gòu)入良機(jī)。如果你質(zhì)疑其增長(zhǎng)態(tài)勢(shì),，那么請(qǐng)不要出手,。

????Last month, Fortune asked if Facebook's stock was worth buying if the company is valued at $100 billion. The conclusion: It might be! Then came news yesterday that Facebook will price its IPO between $28 and $35 a share, implying a valuation between $77 billion and $96 billion for the young tech giant.

????We've already said what kinds of hurdles Facebook faces with a $100 billion valuation. But what if shares trade near the low-end of the spectrum, say for $28, and don't bounce on the first day of trading? What kind of prospects does the stock offer then?

????According to the numbers crunchers at EVA Dimensions, a $28 share price means the market thinks Facebook will grow to sales of just over $50 billion in the year 2021. That's still an impressive 30% annual compound growth rate, but it seems much easier to achieve than the $68 billion in sales implied by a $100 billion valuation. Those sales figures assume that Facebook's margins don't deteriorate badly from here. (Facebook, it turns out, earns amazing profit margins when you consider its capital costs. Last year it earned $1 billion on just $3.7 billion in sales— what EVA Dimensions calls "monopoly-like margins.")

????We've said before, Google (GOOG) once faced the same hurdles but eventually grew into its valuation, and took stock investors on a ride from $85 to $650 along the way.

????There's no easy take on Facebook stock. If you believe it can continue its torrid sales growth without killing margins, the stock looks like an amazing opportunity. If you doubt it can continue boosting sales, stay away.