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????Facebook即將啟動(dòng)的首次公開募股發(fā)行,，或許是硅谷周圍這些日子以來信心爆棚的標(biāo)志,。很可能在幾周之后，許多技術(shù)人員將由此變成大富豪,，這是毫無疑問的,。但這次IPO還產(chǎn)生了一個(gè)相對(duì)較小且鮮有人關(guān)注的效應(yīng)：本已緩過氣的硅谷房地產(chǎn)市場正在陷入瘋狂。

????雖然與Facebook有實(shí)際聯(lián)系的潛在購房者僅占硅谷全部買家的一小部分,，但他們對(duì)市場的心理影響卻是毋庸置疑的,。特別是在被馬克?扎克伯格稱為家的Facebook總部所在地帕洛阿爾托（Palo Alto），賣家們要么選擇在IPO之前暫停銷售房屋,，要么大幅提升了他們的期望值,。房產(chǎn)中介機(jī)構(gòu)BrokerMetrics公司提供的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，在2012年第一季度,，帕洛阿爾托市獨(dú)戶型住宅的中間價(jià)上漲了11%,，庫存則下降了57%。

????房產(chǎn)經(jīng)紀(jì)人邁克爾?德雷福斯講了這樣一個(gè)故事,。一位客戶在帕洛阿爾托老城（帕洛阿爾托市最好的社區(qū)之一,，史蒂夫?喬布斯曾居住于此）擁有一套住宅。幾個(gè)月前,，他在向這位客戶提供咨詢時(shí)表示,，這套住宅的售價(jià)很可能在280萬到300萬美元之間。這位客戶認(rèn)為這個(gè)價(jià)位太過保守,，隨后將售價(jià)確定為350萬美元,。2個(gè)月后，這棟看起來非常普通,，面積為3,500平方英尺的住宅最終以390萬美元的價(jià)格成功售出,?！癋acebook的上市讓當(dāng)?shù)厝说男判目涨芭蛎洠麄儓?jiān)信自己的房子會(huì)賣一個(gè)非常好的價(jià)格,，”德雷福斯說,。“他們目前不愿出售房屋,，坐等其升值,。”

????這反過來產(chǎn)生了一個(gè)庫存問題,，進(jìn)而驅(qū)動(dòng)房屋售價(jià)進(jìn)一步上漲,。“去帕洛阿爾托淘金,！”今年初,，德雷福斯供職的精品住宅經(jīng)紀(jì)公司的網(wǎng)站上出現(xiàn)了這樣一條留言。德雷福斯表示,，“城里每家房產(chǎn)經(jīng)紀(jì)公司都握有一長串買家清單,，你幾乎能感受到即將在春天到來的火熱景象。大批買家將蜂擁而至,，少得可憐的房源根本無法滿足他們的需要,。”

????但如果Facebook的募股表現(xiàn)低于市場預(yù)期（Facebook本周發(fā)布公告稱該公司營收下降）,，房地產(chǎn)市場就有可能面臨“一場大崩潰,，”德雷福斯如是說。倘若如今持觀望態(tài)度的房主由于擔(dān)心房價(jià)進(jìn)一步下跌,，依然決定出售其房屋,，房市的行情就將進(jìn)一步走低。如果這一幕發(fā)生,，那可能預(yù)示著早有預(yù)言的硅谷房市泡沫或許已經(jīng)出現(xiàn),，并隨之破裂了。

????Facebook效應(yīng)正在硅谷周圍創(chuàng)造另一個(gè)新興的景象：秘密出售,。美國房地產(chǎn)房源共享系統(tǒng)(Multiple Listing Service,，簡稱MLS)一直是美國人出售房屋的主流渠道。但許多富裕的房主不想在屋前草坪上豎起“待售”標(biāo)牌,，也不想把房屋地址公開在經(jīng)紀(jì)公司的房源清單上或者在網(wǎng)上發(fā)布自家臥室的照片,。因此,，一些經(jīng)紀(jì)公司繞過MLS系統(tǒng),，轉(zhuǎn)而使用自己的渠道搜尋潛在買家?！昂佟覟槟銣?zhǔn)備了一套房子,！”《帕洛阿爾托周報(bào)》（Palo Alto Weekly）最近發(fā)布的一則消息使用了這樣一個(gè)毫無諷刺意味的標(biāo)題,。這篇報(bào)道配發(fā)了大量住宅照片，其中一棟位于扎克伯格的新家不遠(yuǎn)處,，是一套7,732平方英尺的殖民地風(fēng)格住宅（“售價(jià)還不到900萬美元,！”），另一棟建于1929年,，售價(jià)1,150萬美元的地中海風(fēng)格住宅則位于喬布斯家正對(duì)面,，

????德雷福斯目前有一套打算在私人市場銷售的房子，售價(jià)在1,500萬美元以上,。他說這套房子將成為帕洛阿爾托市最昂貴的房產(chǎn),。他或許想透露更多信息，但他不能這樣做,，甚至連具體的價(jià)格都不能隨便向外界公開,。

????譯者：任文科

????Facebook's looming public offering may mark high water in confidence around Silicon Valley these days. And it is surely is going to make a lot of techies very rich, likely in a few weeks. But there's a smaller, barely noticed effect of the IPO: an already hyperventilating local real estate market that's now going bonkers.

????Though the number of actual prospective home buyers with Facebook connections is only a fraction of all buyers in the Valley, their psychological effect on the market is unmistakable. In Palo Alto, in particular -- which Mark Zuckerberg calls home --sellers are either keeping their homes off the market until the IPO or ramping up expectations. For the first quarter of 2012, according to BrokerMetrics, the median price of a single-family P.A. home went up 11%, whereas inventory declined 57%.

????One broker, Michael Dreyfus, tells a story. He had a client with a house in Old Palo Alto -- one of the town's best neighborhoods (where Steve Jobs lived) -- and advised the client a few months ago the house would likely sell between $2.8 million and $3 million. Thinking that too conservative, the client priced it at $3.5 million. The unexceptional 3,500-square-foot home sold two months later for nearly $3.9 million. "The locals are all gaga over Facebook and how much their houses are going to be worth," Dreyfus says. "And they're holding their houses off the market."

????That in turns generates an inventory problem, which drives prices up further. "Palo Alto Gold!" declared a post earlier this year on the website of Dreyfus's boutique residential brokerage. "Every real estate agent in town has a long list of buyers and you can almost feel the preparation for a spring frenzy. The hordes of buyers are going to overwhelm our meager supply."

????But if the Facebook offering doesn't perform as well as expected -- and this week the company reported revenues were down -- then the housing market could face "a great big crash," according to Dreyfus. If the homeowners who are now waiting put their homes on the market anyway, worried over further declines, the market would go down more. If that happened, it could be the sign that the long-prognosticated bubble in the Valley may finally have appeared -- and burst.

????The Facebook effect may be creating another burgeoning phenomenon around the Valley: secret sales. The Multiple Listing Service (MLS) has always been the mainstream way to sell your house in the U.S. But many wealthy homeowners don't want FOR SALE signs up on the front lawns or their addresses in public brokerage listings—or photos online of the master bedroom. So some brokers bypass MLS and use their own contacts to hunt for possible buyers. "Pssst…Have I got a house for you!" reads a recent unironically intended headline in the Palo Alto Weekly, The story comes complete with unprivate photos of that lovely 7,732-square-foot Colonial not far from Zuck's new place ("just under $9 million"!) or the 1929 Mediterranean for $11.5 million just across the street from Jobs's house.

????One estate currently for sale by Dreyfus is on the private market for what he says will be the most expensive ever sold in Palo Alto -- more than a record $15 million. He might want to tell you more about it, but he can't. Even the price is private.