????如果你相信很大程度上是企業(yè)盈利在推動股市的表現(xiàn),，那么股市的好光景可能會在今年某個時候戛然而止。S&P Capital IQ預(yù)計今年標(biāo)普500家公司的盈利增幅將僅為6%,，低于2011年全年的16%,。而且，企業(yè)盈利放緩的跡象早已顯現(xiàn),，2011年第四季度同比僅增長了8%,。
????確實(shí)，上周三美聯(lián)儲主席本?伯南克對美國經(jīng)濟(jì)的看法也不是很樂觀,。他說,，美國樓市依然疲弱，就業(yè)市場還“遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)沒有恢復(fù)正?！?。另外，天然氣價格的上漲也已威脅到消費(fèi)者的購買力,。
????美聯(lián)儲預(yù)計今年美國經(jīng)濟(jì)將僅增長2.2%- 2.7%,，略快于2011年下半年。當(dāng)然,，過去伯南克的預(yù)測也有過嚴(yán)重失誤的時候,，但光憑美國經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)強(qiáng)就能最終撐起股市嗎？我們顯然有理由對此持懷疑態(tài)度,。
????譯者：早稻米 |
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????If you believe that corporate profits largely drive the performance of the stock market, then it's likely that the good times in equities could come to a halt this year. Earnings for the S&P 500 are expected to rise just 6% this year, down from 16% in 2011, according to S&P Capital IQ. And profits have already shown signs of a slowdown, growing just 8% in the fourth quarter of 2011 compared with the same period in 2010.
????Indeed, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke on Wednesday offered a tempered view of the U.S. economy. The housing market remains a drag, while the job market has been "far from normal," he says. All the while, rising gas prices threaten consumers' buying power.
????The Fed predicts the economy will grow only 2.2% to 2.7% this year, only slightly faster than it grew in the second half of 2011. Admittedly, Bernanke has been outrageously wrong before but it would only be fair for us to question if the basic ingredients that make a strong economy could, in the end, really prop up the stock market on its own. |
