????蓋茨的回歸或許有助于提高微軟傳遞訊息的效率,，但哈福德指出，甚至蘋果公司的史蒂夫?喬布斯也需要一位得力干將（現(xiàn)任CEO蒂姆?庫克）幫助他處理公司日常的繁雜事務(wù),。目前還不清楚蓋茨是否能留住他的“左膀右臂”鮑爾默,，抑或找到一位替代人選。而且必須指出的是,，蓋茨在任職期間所闡述的愿景也不止一次地?zé)o疾而終,。
????分析人士表示，無論是誰執(zhí)掌微軟,，都將面前嚴(yán)峻的挑戰(zhàn)——即便那個人是比爾?蓋茨,。鮑爾默執(zhí)掌期間，微軟在遭受災(zāi)難性的Windows Vista帶來的打擊之后,，重新振作,，成功地發(fā)布了Windows 7 操作系統(tǒng)。現(xiàn)在,，該公司正積極籌備Windows 8系統(tǒng),，并希望將其應(yīng)用于平板設(shè)備領(lǐng)域。但微軟必須把開發(fā)商吸引到它的平臺上,，還要跟亞馬遜（Amazon）,、蘋果和谷歌等公司一決雌雄?！皠?chuàng)始人回歸之后,，幫助公司在特定市場迎頭趕上的例子寥寥無幾，” 艾維克合伙人公司(Evercore Partners)的柯克?蒙特尼警告說,。他所在的公司為微軟實施投資銀行業(yè)務(wù),。“當(dāng)微軟還在市場上占據(jù)主導(dǎo)地位的時候,，蓋茨做得很不錯,。”蒙特尼警告說,，即便是蓋茨,，也將面臨挑戰(zhàn)。
????哈福德和其他分析家認(rèn)為,，鮑爾默在微軟的地位非常牢固,，他依然是蓋茨的密友,。他們表示，最大的可能是,，在該公司于2012年及以后推出新產(chǎn)品期間,，鮑爾默將繼續(xù)留任，至少要到2016年他滿60歲的時候,。微軟的一位發(fā)言人指出,，該公司并沒有法定的退休年齡，而且確實制定了繼任計劃,，但他不愿意透露具體的細(xì)節(jié),，也沒有就蓋茨回歸一事發(fā)表評論。在馬奎爾看來,，微軟的內(nèi)部人士,，Windows系統(tǒng)負(fù)責(zé)人史蒂文?西諾夫斯基或許最有可能成為CEO接班人——“他甚至穿了一件黑色的高翻領(lǐng)毛衣?！惫５卤硎?，無論繼任計劃何時實施，它都會跟蓋茨當(dāng)年單方面地把權(quán)杖交給好友鮑爾默的時候大不相同,，因為公司的董事會將擁有更大的發(fā)言權(quán),。
????即使不可能，“假使蓋茨回歸,，微軟將會怎么樣,？”也是一個很有可能不斷浮現(xiàn)的問題，特別是在微軟股價長期低迷的情況下,。但如果比爾?蓋茨真的回歸了,，“我絕不會草率地認(rèn)定他也無力回天，”蒙特尼說,。有這種想法的或許并不只有他一人,。
????譯者：任文科 |
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????Gates' return could help streamline Microsoft's message, but Harford notes that even Steve Jobs at Apple (AAPL) had current CEO Tim Cook at his side to handle the nitty-gritty. It's unclear whether Gates could keep his old right-hand man, Ballmer, or find a replacement. And, it must be noted that, during his tenure, Gates articulated more than one vision that went nowhere.
????Analysts say that whoever is in charge at Microsoft will face serious headwinds -- even Gates. Under Ballmer, the company picked itself up after the disastrous Windows Vista, launching Windows 7 successfully. Now, it is preparing Windows 8, which the company hopes will launch it into tablets. But it must draw developers to its platforms and duke it out with with Amazon (AMZN), Apple and Google. "There are very few examples of where returning founders had to come from behind in their certain market," warns Kirk Materne of Evercore Partners, which carries out investment banking services for Microsoft. "Gates was great at Microsoft when Microsoft was the dominant player." Even Gates, Materne warns, would face challenges.
????Analysts and Harford agree that Ballmer's position at Microsoft is well established, and he remains a close friend of Gates. It's most probably, they say, that Ballmer stays in charge as the company brings its new products to bear in 2012 and beyond, at least until Ballmer turns 60 in 2016. A Microsoft spokesman noted the company does not have a fixed retirement age and that the company does have a succession plan in place but would not provide details. (He declined to comment on a Gates return to the company.) Insider Steven Sinofsky, who heads up Windows, might be the company's best bet for a high-profile scion -- "he even wears the black turtlenecks," Maguire notes. Harford says that whenever the succession is, it will differ greatly from when Gates unilaterally passed control to his buddy Ballmer, as the board will have a much greater say.
????Even if unlikely, Gate's return is a "what if?" that's likely to have life, especially as long as the company's stock price languishes. But if he did return? "I wouldn't hasten to bet against Bill Gates," Materne says. He's probably not the only one. |
