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2011年10大脫靶商業(yè)預言
作者:
SCOTT CENDROWSKI
時間:
2012年01月05日
來源: 財富中文網(wǎng)
位置：
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從預言“市政債券暴跌”到“銀行股反彈”,，再到“雅虎咸魚翻身”，今天我們來回顧一下2011年最不靠譜的十大商業(yè)預言,。
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Netflix值得買入
????我們不會一一列出所有栽在網(wǎng)絡影片租賃公司Netflix手里的人——幾乎所有看好這支股票的人都看走了眼。但華爾街分析師們自然是最惹眼的,。2011年夏季 Netflix見頂于304美元時其靜態(tài)市盈率已達到80倍,，但幾乎所有跟蹤該股的分析師還是給出了買入建議。Piper Jaffray的邁克?奧森全年都維持“超配”評級,，只是在Netflix股價暴跌后將目標價從263美元調低至了100美元,。2011年12月30日，Netflix收于69.11美元,。
????回過頭來,，不難理解為何這么多人看好Netflix?！敦敻弧冯s志將Netflix的創(chuàng)始人里德?哈斯廷斯評為2010年度首席執(zhí)行官,，理由是這家在線影片租賃公司的用戶增速驚人,。而2011年,，客戶們發(fā)現(xiàn)有更多電影可以在網(wǎng)上觀看。但Netflix的股價反映了最完美的前景，太多人卻沒有看清這一點,。 |
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Netflix stock is a buy
????We won't pick through all the losers on Netflix -- almost everyone was wrong on this stock. But Wall Street analysts were certainly the most vocal. Consider that when shares reached their peak of $304 in the summer, Netflix traded for 80 times trailing 12-month earnings yet it still garnered buy recommendations from nearly every analyst covering the stock. Mike Olson of Piper Jaffray kept his overweight rating on shares all year, only changing his target price from $263 to $100 after they crashed. (Today they trade around $70 a share.)
????In retrospect, it's easy to see why so many fell in love with Netflix. Fortune named founder Reed Hastings CEO of the year in 2010 as the movie rental company added subscribers at a torrid pace. And this year customers were finding even more movies to watch online. But Netflix's stock was priced for perfection, and too many people missed that. |
Twitter找到生財之道
????如果說2010年的主題是增長,，2011年Twitter理應開始賺錢?？萍冀绲却@個擁躉者眾多（從美國脫口秀主持人奧普拉到美國總統(tǒng)奧巴馬）的新秀企業(yè)能將數(shù)以億計的Twitter消息轉化為可持續(xù)的買賣,。“2011年,，他們必須證明自己確實是一樁生意,，”2011年1月一位分析師告訴《洛杉磯時報》。
????2012年會嗎,？2010年底當?shù)峡?科斯多羅取代共同創(chuàng)始人埃文斯?威廉姆斯出任Twitter首席執(zhí)行官時,，旁觀者期待這位曾經的即興喜劇演員能與廣告主們建立更緊密地合作。在一定程度上,，他是成功的,。Twitter贏得了星巴克（Starbucks）、可口可樂（Coca-Cola）等超級品牌的廣告,。但問題是廣告主們發(fā)現(xiàn)可選余地仍然很小,。有些項目設計糟糕，看來幾乎不可能達到Twitter用戶中的目標受眾,。所有這些不禁讓旁觀者質疑Twitter 80億美元的估值,，以及該公司能否在IPO前真正成為一樁生意。 |
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Twitter finds a business plan
????If 2010 was about growth, 2011 was the year Twitter was going to become a business. The tech world waited for the upstart with fans from Oprah to President Obama to turn those hundreds of millions of tweets into something sustainable. "2011 will be the year that they have to prove they are a business," an analyst told the Los Angeles Times in January.
????Make that 2012? When Dick Costolo replaced co-founder Evans Williams as CEO in late 2010, watchers expected the former improv comedian to work closely with advertisers. And to some extent he's been successful. Twitter has attracted business from mega-brands like Starbucks and Coca-Cola. But the problem is that advertisers are still offered limited options. Some programs seem poorly constructed and reaching a target audience among tweeters can be almost impossible. It's all made outsiders question Twitter's $8 billion valuation and whether it can get its act together to resemble a true business before it can hit the public market. |
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