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????上周三晚些時(shí)候,，凱蒂?休伯蒂在一份向客戶(hù)提交的報(bào)告中稱(chēng),，由AlphaWise在感恩節(jié)后的一周為摩根士丹利公司（Morgan Stanley）所做的美國(guó)消費(fèi)者調(diào)研中充滿(mǎn)了令人驚喜的發(fā)現(xiàn)。

????? iPhone正在大賣(mài),，勢(shì)頭令人驚訝,。基于本次調(diào)研和上周由美國(guó)電話(huà)電報(bào)公司（AT&T）發(fā)布的評(píng)論，休伯蒂估測(cè),，本財(cái)季蘋(píng)果公司（Apple）iPhone的出貨量將在3,100萬(wàn)到3,600萬(wàn)部之間——這比她自己通過(guò)建模估算的3,000萬(wàn)部要高出20%,，比華爾街估測(cè)的2,800萬(wàn)臺(tái)要高出近30%,。

????? 對(duì)iPhone的需求正在加速增長(zhǎng)。休伯蒂寫(xiě)道：“令人驚訝的是,，美國(guó)消費(fèi)者在2012年第1財(cái)季的iPhone購(gòu)買(mǎi)量預(yù)計(jì)將比2011年第4財(cái)季更多,。（著重處為分析師本人所加）”。即便將該調(diào)研的結(jié)果打折10%,，這也意味著下一財(cái)季蘋(píng)果公司將在美國(guó)售出1,300萬(wàn)部iPhone,，在全球售出4,100萬(wàn)部。而摩根士丹利公司通過(guò)建模估測(cè),，蘋(píng)果將在2012年第1財(cái)季售出3,000萬(wàn)部iPhone,。

????? “也許最令人驚訝的是，”對(duì)平板電腦的需求毫無(wú)減弱的跡象,。據(jù)該調(diào)研稱(chēng),，目前只有8%的美國(guó)消費(fèi)者擁有一臺(tái)平板電腦，但是27%的人計(jì)劃購(gòu)買(mǎi)一臺(tái),。按照休伯蒂的估測(cè),，如果蘋(píng)果“適度地”將4%的市場(chǎng)份額拱手讓給亞馬遜公司（Amazon）的Kindle Fire，蘋(píng)果明年將在全球售出8,100萬(wàn)臺(tái)iPad,。而摩根士丹利公司建模估測(cè)的結(jié)果是,，2012年蘋(píng)果將僅能售出5,200萬(wàn)臺(tái)iPad，其中在美國(guó)的銷(xiāo)量約為2,000萬(wàn)臺(tái),，美國(guó)之外約為3,200萬(wàn)臺(tái),。

????? 如果降價(jià)100美元，蘋(píng)果將能多售出1,500萬(wàn)臺(tái)iPad,。休伯蒂估測(cè),，即便該調(diào)研結(jié)果打30%的折扣（她是從哪兒弄到這些數(shù)據(jù)的？）,，如果蘋(píng)果能將目前售價(jià)最低的iPad 2的價(jià)格降至399美元,，2012年iPad就能在全球售出9,000萬(wàn)臺(tái)，約比蘋(píng)果供應(yīng)商據(jù)稱(chēng)按訂貨要求生產(chǎn)的數(shù)量還多1,000萬(wàn)臺(tái),。

????譯者：清遠(yuǎn)

????The results of an AlphaWise survey of U.S. consumers conducted for Morgan Stanley the week after Thanksgiving was full of surprises, reports Katy Huberty in a note to clients issued late Wednesday.

????? iPhones are selling surprisingly briskly. Based on the survey and last week's comments from AT&T (T), Huberty estimates that Apple (AAPL) could ship anywhere from 31 to 36 million iPhones this quarter -- as much as 20% higher than the 30 million she's modeling and nearly 30% higher than the 28 million Wall Street is expecting.

????? iPhone demand is accelerating. "Surprisingly," she writes, "US consumers expect to buy more iPhones in C1Q12 than C4Q11" (emphasis hers). Even discounting the survey results 10%, that suggests Apple could sell 13 million iPhones in the U.S. and 41 million worldwide next quarter. Morgan Stanley's model has Apple selling 30 million iPhones in calendar Q1 2012.

????? "Perhaps most surprising," demand for tablets shows no sign of weakening. Only 8% of US consumers own a tablet today but 27% plan to buy one, according to the survey. If, as Huberty expects, Apple gives up "a modest" 4 points of market share to Amazon's (AMZN) Kindle Fire, Apple could sell 81 million iPads worldwide next year. Morgan Stanley is modeling only 52 millon iPads for 2012, roughly 20 million in the U.S. and 32 million overseas.

????? With a $100 price cut Apple could sell 15 million more iPads. Even after applying a 30% discount to the survey results (where does she get these numbers?), Huberty estimates that if Apple were to reduce the price of the cheapest iPad 2 to $399, it could sell 90 million iPads worldwide in 2012, roughly 10 million more than its suppliers have reportedly been asked to build.