研究：iPhone普及需要擴(kuò)充運(yùn)營(yíng)商
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????摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）的凱蒂?休伯蒂通過(guò)一系列經(jīng)過(guò)精心研究的圖表發(fā)現(xiàn),，在其它條件都相同的情況下，真正拉動(dòng)智能手機(jī)銷(xiāo)量的一個(gè)因素是：銷(xiāo)售手機(jī)的無(wú)線(xiàn)運(yùn)營(yíng)商數(shù)目,。 ????休伯蒂分在上周日致客戶(hù)的報(bào)告中享了對(duì)225個(gè)國(guó)家760家運(yùn)營(yíng)商2007年到2011年之間的數(shù)據(jù)分析結(jié)果,。過(guò)去5年，總體用戶(hù)數(shù)年增長(zhǎng)率為17%,，其中與現(xiàn)有運(yùn)營(yíng)商簽約的新用戶(hù)同與新運(yùn)營(yíng)商簽約的用戶(hù)數(shù)量大致相當(dāng),。 ????休伯蒂稱(chēng)，這在很大程度上與蘋(píng)果（Apple）iPhone的情況相符,。iPhone從2007年的一家運(yùn)營(yíng)商——美國(guó)電話(huà)電報(bào)公司（AT&T）——增長(zhǎng)到如今的105個(gè)國(guó)家230家運(yùn)營(yíng)商,。（見(jiàn)上圖所示。） ????雖然如此,，但蘋(píng)果的簽約運(yùn)營(yíng)商數(shù)量仍然落后于競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手,。比如黑莓手機(jī)生產(chǎn)商RIM，在休伯蒂所列舉的760家運(yùn)營(yíng)商中,，79%已和黑莓（Blackberry）簽約,，而其中僅有30%是iPhone運(yùn)營(yíng)商。 ????休伯蒂認(rèn)為iPhone最大的增長(zhǎng)點(diǎn)將來(lái)自亞洲（蒂姆?庫(kù)克也贊同這種觀點(diǎn)）,，一方面由于亞洲擁有龐大的人口,；另一方面是許多消費(fèi)者沒(méi)有購(gòu)買(mǎi)iPhone的渠道，因?yàn)樗诘氐倪\(yùn)營(yíng)商還未有發(fā)售計(jì)劃,。參見(jiàn)下面的圖表,。 |
????In a series of well-researched charts, Morgan Stanley's Katy Huberty has put her finger on the one factor -- all others being equal -- that really drives smartphone sales: The number of cell phone operators that sell the thing. ????In a report issued to clients Sunday, Huberty shared the results of an analysis of 760 carriers in 225 countries from 2007 to 2001. Over the past five years, the growth in total subscribers per year (17%) was split roughly 50/50 between new subscribers on existing carriers and subscribers signed up on new carriers. ????This holds true in spades, Huberty suggests, for Apple's (AAPL) iPhone, which since 2007 has gone from one carrier -- AT&T (T) -- to nearly 230 carriers in 105 countries. (See chart above.) ????Despite those carrier agreements, Apple still trails its competitors. Research in Motion (RIMM), for example, has deals for the BlackBerry with 79% of the 760 operators Huberty identified. Only 30% carry the iPhone. ????The biggest opportunity for growth, according to Huberty (and, for that matter, Tim Cook) is in Asia, both in terms of total population and in terms of the number of subscribers who don't have access to the iPhone because their cellular provider doesn't sell it. See the charts below: |
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????下面一幅圖表的數(shù)據(jù)同樣對(duì)iPhone這樣定價(jià)相對(duì)較高的手機(jī)有利：在新興市場(chǎng),，購(gòu)買(mǎi)補(bǔ)貼手機(jī)的用戶(hù)數(shù)量（即所謂后付費(fèi)補(bǔ)貼計(jì)劃）最近已經(jīng)超過(guò)全額預(yù)付款購(gòu)買(mǎi)廉價(jià)智能手機(jī)的用戶(hù)數(shù)（被稱(chēng)為預(yù)付費(fèi)手機(jī)）,。 |
????One last chart that also works in favor of cellphones, like the iPhone, with a relatively high sticker price: The growth in the number of subscribers in emerging markets who buy subsidized cellphones (in so-called post-paid plans) has recently overtaken those who prefer to pay full price for cheap cellphones at the time of purchase (so-called pre-paid phones). |
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