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????科技公司首次公開(kāi)募股最近比較少見(jiàn)，可一旦出現(xiàn)就是大動(dòng)作,。團(tuán)購(gòu)網(wǎng)站Groupon公開(kāi)募股的規(guī)模就是最大的一次（Groupon是否屬于“科技公司”尚值得商榷,，但人們就是這么認(rèn)為的，這一點(diǎn)很重要）,。當(dāng)前的經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境被緊張氣氛所籠罩,，這也是導(dǎo)致科技股首次公開(kāi)募股非常少見(jiàn)的原因之一，在這種氛圍中,，投資者的情緒通常都是緊張兮兮,，至少可以說(shuō)是謹(jǐn)小慎微。

????科技公司首次公開(kāi)募股可能在一段時(shí)間內(nèi)會(huì)呈現(xiàn)出某種歡樂(lè)的懷舊情緒,，但在散戶(hù)投資者們加深對(duì)抵押貸款衍生品的了解之后,，樂(lè)觀的情況將不會(huì)持續(xù)。

????迄今為止,，Groupon仍在既定軌道內(nèi)運(yùn)行,。其股票發(fā)行價(jià)定為20美元，為公司募集到了約7億美元,，公司總價(jià)值評(píng)估為127億美元,，僅次于谷歌公司（Google）2004年首次公開(kāi)募股之后的評(píng)估價(jià)值231億美元。交易剛開(kāi)始,，Groupon的股價(jià)就上漲了40%,，達(dá)到28美元，幾分鐘后達(dá)到30美元,。隨后股價(jià)開(kāi)始下探,，但仍然比發(fā)行價(jià)高出很多，大約在28美元左右,。

????《大西洋報(bào)》（The Atlantic）資深編輯德里克?湯姆森表示,，目前促使人們買(mǎi)進(jìn)Groupon股票有兩種可能因素。一是他們“真的認(rèn)為存在一種商業(yè)模式支撐著Groupon這類(lèi)公司,，二是他們認(rèn)為自己比其他投資者更聰明,，能夠在首次公開(kāi)募股之后的數(shù)周和數(shù)月內(nèi)比那幫傻瓜更早地將Groupon股份脫手變現(xiàn)?！?/p>

????鑒于Groupon公司的歷史,、商業(yè)模式以及類(lèi)似IPO的近況,，后一種動(dòng)機(jī)似乎更靠譜。確實(shí)有些人非?？春肎roupon,，但他們中的多數(shù)為Groupon公司員工或者公司投資人。而其他大部分人都關(guān)注該公司面臨的無(wú)窮無(wú)盡的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和警示,，包括：Groupon依然虧損,；收益增長(zhǎng)平平；公司會(huì)計(jì)實(shí)務(wù)遭受質(zhì)疑（并進(jìn)行了修正）,；公司很明顯違反了“靜默期”慣例（公司在首日上市交易前的一段時(shí)期內(nèi)或上市后幾周內(nèi)對(duì)外不發(fā)布任何信息,，保持靜默——譯者注）；首席運(yùn)營(yíng)官瑪戈?喬治亞迪斯在任職僅五個(gè)月后就突然辭職,，轉(zhuǎn)投谷歌,。

????更重要的是，Groupon公司的前景一片迷茫,。有些商業(yè)業(yè)主已經(jīng)開(kāi)始抱怨,，網(wǎng)上團(tuán)購(gòu)優(yōu)惠券讓他們賠了錢(qián)（有點(diǎn)切中要害了），但并沒(méi)有使團(tuán)購(gòu)券買(mǎi)家們成為回頭客并以全價(jià)購(gòu)買(mǎi)商品（這應(yīng)該就是要害所在）,。此外,，進(jìn)入團(tuán)購(gòu)業(yè)務(wù)領(lǐng)域的門(mén)檻也越來(lái)越低，這意味著競(jìng)爭(zhēng)者蜂擁而入時(shí)Groupon必須嚴(yán)重依賴(lài)品牌營(yíng)銷(xiāo),。（看看Groupon的市場(chǎng)追隨者們）

????該股開(kāi)盤(pán)日大漲的另一個(gè)原因是：簡(jiǎn)單的供需關(guān)系,。公司發(fā)行了3,500萬(wàn)股，僅僅是公司總價(jià)值的4.7%,。在需求迅速增加的時(shí)候,，股價(jià)當(dāng)然大幅上漲。

????然而現(xiàn)在的情況又如何呢,？彭博社（Bloomberg）選擇了最近兩年它認(rèn)為“大熱”的25家首次公開(kāi)募股公司,。其中有20家公司的股價(jià)已經(jīng)跌破發(fā)行價(jià)，而且大多遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)低于發(fā)行價(jià),。另一家互聯(lián)網(wǎng)公司迪蒙德傳媒（Demand Media）的業(yè)務(wù)也不穩(wěn)定，初始投資者占有的股份很多,，其股價(jià)在首次公開(kāi)募股之后已經(jīng)暴跌68%,。如果說(shuō)到目前為止，Groupon公司的發(fā)展尚在正軌的話,，它最好還是根據(jù)形勢(shì)隨機(jī)應(yīng)變,。

????譯者：李玫曉/汪皓

????Tech IPOs are infrequent enough these days that when one happens, it's a big deal. Groupon (GRPN) is turning out to be the biggest of big deals (whether Groupon is a "tech company" is open to question, but it's perceived that way, and that's what counts). The very infrequency of tech IPOs is among the factors drawing capital to them in an otherwise fear-gripped economy where the people deploying capital are generally skittish and -- seemingly at least -- careful.

????Maybe it's just that "tech IPO" carries a certain happy nostalgia for a time before many retail investors knew much about mortgage derivatives.

????So far, Groupon is staying on script. The stock priced at $20, raising about $700 million for the company and valuing it at $12.7 billion. That's second only to Google (GOOG), which was valued at $23.1 billion upon its 2004 IPO. Groupon shares opened 40% higher, at $28, and hit $30 just a few minutes after trading started. They have drifted down from that, but are still well above their open price, at around $28.

????The Atlantic's Derek Thompson says there are two possible factors motivating people buying Groupon today. Either they "really do believe that there is a business model at the bottom of the heap of Groupons, or else they think they're smarter than the rest of the market and can spin off Groupon shares on a bunch of suckers in the weeks and months after the IPO."

????Given Groupon's history and its business model, and the recent history of similar IPOs, the latter motive seems the more likely. There are some true believers in Groupon, but many of them seem to work for either Groupon or its investors. Much of the rest of the world appears focused on the seemingly endless list of red flags and caveats: Groupon still loses money; revenue growth is flat; the company's accounting practices have been questioned (and revamped); the company apparently violated "quiet period" rules; COO Margo Georgiadis abruptly left the company to work for Google after just five months.

????More fundamentally, Groupon's prospects are far from predictable. There have been complaints from business owners that online coupons lose them money (which is sort of the point) but don't bring coupon users back to buy at full price (which is supposed to be the point.) Further, there are few barriers to entry in Groupon's business, which means that it must rely heavily on branding even as competitors pile in. (Meet Groupon's groupies)

????Another reason for the stock's opening-day pop: simple supply and demand. The company issued 35 million shares, or just 4.7% of the total. Add in the buzz-propelled demand and there couldn't help but be a huge price spike.

????But what happens now? Bloomberg picked 25 IPOs over the past two years that it labeled "hot." Of those, 20 have sunk below their opening price - often well below. Demand Media (DMD), another Internet company with a shaky business and lots of initial investor interest, is down 68% since its IPO. If Groupon has followed the script so far, it had better start improvising soon.