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????美國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)泡沫破裂之后,，金融危機(jī)隨之呼嘯而來(lái)，自此之后,，許多美國(guó)人都覺(jué)得實(shí)現(xiàn)美國(guó)夢(mèng)的可能性變得越來(lái)越小,。居住在白色籬柵環(huán)繞的別墅之中，乃是許多人的夢(mèng)想,，然而次貸危機(jī)使這個(gè)夢(mèng)想成了鏡花水月,。不過(guò)，美國(guó)夢(mèng)遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)不只是擁有自己的房子,，眼前現(xiàn)成的例子就是證明——看看最近的占領(lǐng)華爾街運(yùn)動(dòng)吧,，大學(xué)生和年輕人有很充分的理由感到憤怒，從就業(yè)困難到助學(xué)貸款負(fù)擔(dān)沉重,，不一而足,。

????美國(guó)夢(mèng)是一種更寬泛的理念：當(dāng)前這代人會(huì)超越他們的父輩——這可以表現(xiàn)在掙更多錢，也可以是教育程度更高,，或者以其他方式提高自己在這個(gè)世界上的地位——無(wú)論你的起點(diǎn)是高還是低,。多年來(lái)，這一理念一直在遭到侵蝕,，而且看起來(lái)問(wèn)題不只是出在華爾街身上,。

????出人頭地為何越來(lái)越難？原因包括以下幾個(gè)方面：

薪水增長(zhǎng)停滯,，生產(chǎn)力提高

????崇尚人向高處走的美國(guó)夢(mèng)與下列理念不可分割：辛勤勞動(dòng)的人將享有他們用汗水澆灌的果實(shí),。可是,，最近幾年來(lái)這種理念得到驗(yàn)證的概率越來(lái)越小,。

????前國(guó)會(huì)預(yù)算辦公室（Congressional Budget Office）主任彼得?奧斯?jié)筛裆现茉谂聿┥纾˙loomberg）發(fā)表專欄文章，稱美國(guó)工人目前實(shí)際上每年損失數(shù)千億美元的薪水,，因?yàn)槠髽I(yè)所得中轉(zhuǎn)化為員工工資或其他形式薪酬的部分變少了,。他認(rèn)為，這一趨勢(shì)主要是技術(shù)革新和機(jī)械化降低了對(duì)工人的需求所致；此外,，全球化使全球勞工均可參與競(jìng)爭(zhēng),，擴(kuò)大了勞動(dòng)力的供給。

????上述下降趨勢(shì)令人觸目心驚：1990年,，私營(yíng)企業(yè)的收入中有63%最終成為員工的薪水和福利,；到了2005年，該比例已經(jīng)降到了61%,，而且仍在持續(xù)下降,，今年年中已降至58%。奧斯?jié)筛裉岢?，如果這種下降趨勢(shì)并未出現(xiàn),，那今年美國(guó)工人的總薪水將比實(shí)際多5000億美元。薪水的下降與美國(guó)勞動(dòng)生產(chǎn)力的提高相伴而行,，幾十年來(lái),，工資增長(zhǎng)速度一直落后于生產(chǎn)力。根據(jù)美國(guó)智庫(kù)經(jīng)濟(jì)政策研究所（EPI）2011年3月份發(fā)布的一份研究,，1989至2010年間,，美國(guó)生產(chǎn)力增長(zhǎng)了62.5%，遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)高于實(shí)際每小時(shí)平均薪酬的增幅——后者同期內(nèi)只增長(zhǎng)了12%,。

教育問(wèn)題重重

????長(zhǎng)期以來(lái),，教育被視為實(shí)現(xiàn)美國(guó)夢(mèng)的敲門磚。近一個(gè)世紀(jì)以前,，美國(guó)就幾乎在全民范圍內(nèi)普及了高中教育,，正如經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家克勞迪婭?戈?duì)柖『蛣趥愃?卡茨所說(shuō)，一茬茬畢業(yè)生引領(lǐng)美國(guó)走向了經(jīng)濟(jì)繁榮,。1947至1973年間,，美國(guó)家庭實(shí)際收入的中位數(shù)平均年度增幅達(dá)到2.64%，而且最貧困的家庭收入增幅超過(guò)巨富之家,。

????可是,，在此后的三十年中，上述趨勢(shì)遭到逆轉(zhuǎn)——幾乎在同一時(shí)刻,，美國(guó)人教育程度的提高也急劇放緩,。在高中畢業(yè)率方面，美國(guó)曾經(jīng)笑傲全球,，但最近已經(jīng)落后于其他一些發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家,。盡管近幾年來(lái)，美國(guó)高中畢業(yè)率有所回升,，但在20世紀(jì)后半葉,，這一比率曾持續(xù)下降,，影響了經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)，加劇了經(jīng)濟(jì)不平等,。

????“歸根結(jié)底，美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)不平等問(wèn)題的緩解以及整個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)前途,，都依賴于高教育水平勞工供應(yīng)的增長(zhǎng),，”上述兩位經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家寫(xiě)道?！疤嗄贻p人從高中就輟學(xué)了,，太多高中畢業(yè)生沒(méi)有為上大學(xué)做好準(zhǔn)備，大學(xué)學(xué)費(fèi)太高了,；而且比起家庭收入和學(xué)生所獲經(jīng)濟(jì)補(bǔ)助,，學(xué)費(fèi)增長(zhǎng)得更快?！?/p>

年輕的失業(yè)者

????過(guò)去,，對(duì)年輕人來(lái)說(shuō)，找一份送報(bào)紙的兼職,，或者放學(xué)后前往本地雜貨店打工,，往往被視為人生必經(jīng)階段。不管這份兼職到底是什么,，它往往能提供寶貴的學(xué)習(xí)機(jī)會(huì),，大多數(shù)最為知名的首席執(zhí)行官們對(duì)此仍有美好的回憶。戴爾（Dell）首席執(zhí)行官邁克爾?戴爾年方12歲時(shí),，就開(kāi)始在一家中餐館刷盤子,，每小時(shí)能賺2.30美元；沃爾瑪（Wal-Mart）國(guó)際業(yè)務(wù)首席執(zhí)行官道格?麥克米倫17歲時(shí)找到了第一份工作,，在這家大型連鎖超市的一個(gè)倉(cāng)庫(kù)里打雜,，每小時(shí)可獲6美元；谷歌（Google）負(fù)責(zé)搜索產(chǎn)品和用戶體驗(yàn)的副總裁梅麗莎?梅爾16歲時(shí)的首份工作,，是在威斯康辛州Wausau的集市上充當(dāng)收銀員,。

????可是，這些價(jià)格不可估量的體驗(yàn)越來(lái)越難得,。今年,，祖父擁有一份工作的概率已經(jīng)超過(guò)了孫子，這還是史上頭一遭,。從2000年期,，16至19歲年輕人的就業(yè)率持續(xù)下降，而60-64歲老年人的就業(yè)率反倒穩(wěn)步上升,。這部分是因?yàn)槔夏耆藟勖L(zhǎng),，且自愿工作更長(zhǎng)的年限,。可是,，經(jīng)濟(jì)大衰退加劇了這一趨勢(shì),，許多老齡工人發(fā)現(xiàn)自己的財(cái)富因?yàn)楣墒刑头康禺a(chǎn)市場(chǎng)崩盤而大幅縮水，因此寧愿推遲退休,，延長(zhǎng)職業(yè)生涯,，甚至去應(yīng)聘那些技能要求較低的工作崗位——傳統(tǒng)上這是年輕人的領(lǐng)地。

????根據(jù)皮尤研究中心（the Pew Research Center）的數(shù)據(jù),，2010年,，在年齡18-29歲的年輕人中，失業(yè)或不參加工作的人占到了38%,，創(chuàng)下了近40年來(lái)的最高水平,。

????沒(méi)錯(cuò)，比起那些沒(méi)有接受過(guò)四年制高等教育的人,，大學(xué)畢業(yè)生拿到較高薪水的可能性更大,，從長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)來(lái)看，這紙文憑的投資回報(bào)率要高于股市或其他投資渠道,。不過(guò),，早年的就業(yè)經(jīng)歷同樣至關(guān)重要，且可能影響到今后的工資水平,?？紤]到一些經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家預(yù)測(cè)失業(yè)率仍將維持在現(xiàn)在的高位，直到2017年才會(huì)回落至正常水平,，對(duì)當(dāng)今這代人來(lái)說(shuō),，前途未卜已成定論。

財(cái)富縮水

????直到美國(guó)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)崩潰之日,，多數(shù)家庭都將房產(chǎn)視為最大的財(cái)富,。如今，無(wú)力清償房貸,，只好違約,，讓銀行收回房產(chǎn)拍賣的例子仍層出不窮，繼續(xù)沖擊著房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng),，房?jī)r(jià)一蹶不振,，因此，年輕人對(duì)房產(chǎn)所有權(quán)的看法也與父輩截然不同,。根據(jù)波士頓聯(lián)儲(chǔ)（Federal Reserve Bank of Boston）本月公布的一份研究,，年齡超過(guò)58歲的人認(rèn)為在當(dāng)今的環(huán)境下，擁有房產(chǎn)是個(gè)更好的主意,，可年輕一代已失去了這種信心,。

????人人都在猜測(cè),，這種置業(yè)觀還能持續(xù)多長(zhǎng)時(shí)間，或者,，換句話說(shuō),，房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)何時(shí)才會(huì)復(fù)蘇。房產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)崩盤使美國(guó)家庭的大量財(cái)富瞬間蒸發(fā),，恢復(fù)之路并不平坦,。根據(jù)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)（the Federal Reserve）發(fā)布的資金流動(dòng)報(bào)告，連續(xù)回升三個(gè)季度之后,，今年春季美國(guó)家庭凈財(cái)富又出現(xiàn)了一年來(lái)的首次下降，相比此前一個(gè)季度,，下滑0.3%至58.5萬(wàn)億美元,。

????當(dāng)然，財(cái)富縮水不僅對(duì)青年家庭來(lái)說(shuō)是難以承受之災(zāi),，老年人看著自己的退休金因?yàn)榉慨a(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的崩潰和股市的波動(dòng)而大幅減值,，恐怕也不會(huì)好受。不過(guò),，對(duì)原本就深陷債務(wù)的當(dāng)今這代人來(lái)說(shuō),，踏上積累財(cái)富之路的時(shí)間看起來(lái)得比上一代人推遲了許多。

????勘誤：本文稍早的版本曾將道格?麥克米倫誤寫(xiě)為沃爾瑪首席執(zhí)行官,，現(xiàn)已糾正,，他實(shí)為沃爾瑪國(guó)際業(yè)務(wù)的首席執(zhí)行官。

????譯者：小宇

????Since the bust of the U.S. housing market and the subsequent financial crisis, many people in this country have jumped on the view that the American Dream is somehow deteriorating. Hope of living behind a white picket fence was dashed with the mortgage crisis, but the dream is about much more than homeownership. Look no further than the recent Occupy Wall Street movements for proof -- college students and young people are angry about everything from joblessness to student loan debt.

????The American Dream is the broader notion that the current generation will be able to outdo their parents' – whether by earning more or being more educated or other ways of moving up in the world no matter where you started. The concept has been eroding for years, and it appears much of the problems go beyond Wall Street.

????Here's why it's getting harder to get ahead:

Stagnant pay, higher productivity

????The American Dream of upward mobility is tied to the idea that those who work hard get to enjoy the fruits of their labor. But that's become true less frequently in recent years.

????In a Bloomberg op-ed last week, former Congressional Budget Office director Peter Orszag wrote that U.S. workers are effectively missing out on hundreds of billions of dollars a year in wages as less of what businesses earn are going to worker wages and other compensation. He blames the trend primarily on technological change and machines reducing demand for workers, as well as globalization that has widened the supply of labor globally.

????The declines are striking: In 1990, about 63% of private business income went to worker pay and benefits. By 2005, that fell to 61% and has continued to decline, falling to 58% by the middle of this year. If the decline hadn't happened, Orszag notes, workers would have earned $500 billion more this year.?The decrease comes even as the U.S. is increasingly productive. For decades, wages have lagged productivity. Between 1989 and 2010, U.S. productivity grew by 62.5% -- far outpacing real hourly wages, which grew by only 12% during the same period, according to a March 2011 study by the Economic Policy Institute.

Education under siege

????Education has long been the gateway to the American Dream. Nearly a century ago, the U.S. made high school nearly universal, and the crop of graduates led the nation to economic prosperity, economists Claudia Goldin and Lawrence Katz have written. Between 1947 to 1973, mean real family income rose by an average of 2.64% annually. Incomes of the poorest grew faster than those of the richest.

????But that trend reversed during the subsequent three decades – around the time when education attainment slowed sharply. Once the leader in high school graduation, the U.S. in recent years has fallen behind even other advanced countries. Though the U.S. high school graduation rate trended up recently, it had been declining during the latter part of the 20th century – spelling trouble for economic growth and economic inequality.

????"The bottom line is that the future of inequality and this nation depend on increasing the supply of highly educated workers," the economists write. "Too many youth drop out of high school; too many high school graduates are not college-ready. Tuition levels for college are high and have risen relative to family incomes and student financial aid."

Young and jobless

????It used to be that a paper route or an after-school job at the local grocer was viewed as a rite of passage for young people. Whatever the job, it's often a learning experience that even the most high-profile CEOs today recall. At 12 years old, Dell (DELL) CEO Michael Dell started working as a dishwasher at a Chinese restaurant for $2.30 an hour; Wal-Mart (WMT) International CEO Doug McMillon got his first job at one of the big box retail chain's warehouses when he was 17 for $6 an hour; at 16, Google (GOOG) vice president of search products and user experience Marissa Mayer got her start as a checkout clerk in the County Market in Wausau, WI.

????But those invaluable experiences are increasingly harder to come by. For the first time last year, grandpa was more likely to have a job than his grandson. Since 2000, employment among 16 to19-year olds has been declining, while that of 60 to 64-year olds has steadily risen. This is partly attributable to seniors living longer and voluntarily wanting to work longer. However, the Great Recession accelerated the trend. Older workers seeing their wealth decline with the plunge of the stock market and collapse of the housing market stayed at their jobs longer or took lower-skilled jobs ordinarily filled by younger workers.

????And among young adults 18 to 29, the share of unemployed or out of the work force in 2010 – 38% -- was the highest in nearly four decades, according to the Pew Research Center.

????True, college grads are more likely to earn more than those without a four-year degree, and that piece of paper returns more over the long-term than the stock market and other investments. But the early years of a career are also essential and could influence pay down the road. And with some economists predicting that today's high unemployment won't fall back to normal until 2017, this certainly is uncharted territory for today's generation.

Loss of wealth

????Up until the crash of the U.S. housing market, most considered their homes their biggest source of wealth. Needless to say, with the slump in prices as foreclosures and defaults continue to plague the market, younger people today have a very different view of homeownership. While those older than 58 think owning is an even better idea today, younger owners have lost confidence, according to a study by Federal Reserve Bank of Boston released this month.

????It's anyone's guess how long the view will hold, or for that matter, when the real estate market will rebound. But it has diminished much of Americans' wealth, which has seen a mixed recovery. After having risen for three straight quarters, household net worth this spring fell for the first time in a year, dropping 0.3 % to $58.5 trillion from the previous quarter, according to the Federal Reserve's Flow of Funds report.

????To be sure, the decline has also been incredibly tough not just on younger households, but also for seniors who have seen their retirement funds fall in tandem with not just housing but also the volatile stock market. But for the current generation, heavy in debt, the start of building wealth looks to be coming much later than in the previous generation.

????Update: An earlier version of this story misidentified Doug McMillon as CEO of Wal-Mart. He is CEO of Wal-Mart International.