????在東京，一下飛機(jī),，過(guò)完海關(guān)和移民局的檢查,，地震造成的破壞就隨處可見(jiàn)，至少電視中隨時(shí)都在報(bào)道,。在成田國(guó)際機(jī)場(chǎng)的到達(dá)大廳,，我在等候購(gòu)買(mǎi)機(jī)場(chǎng)班車(chē)車(chē)票時(shí)，留意到一臺(tái)巨大的平板高清電視上,，正在播出沿海城鎮(zhèn)和村莊遭受巨大破壞后的殘敗景象,。比起我上海家中那臺(tái)普通小電視，這個(gè)畫(huà)面看起來(lái)更有震撼力,。日本國(guó)家廣播公司NHK記錄下了被海嘯徹底摧毀的日本東北沿海城鎮(zhèn)的情況,。這些觸目驚心的鏡頭，令所有人駐足,。無(wú)論日本人還是外國(guó)人,，所有人都悄無(wú)聲息地盯著電視屏幕。
????周一，臨近交通高峰時(shí)段,，進(jìn)城的車(chē)很少,。這場(chǎng)堪稱(chēng)有史以來(lái)最大的地震之一的災(zāi)難剛剛過(guò)去3天，許多人都將政府的告誡謹(jǐn)記在心,，待在家里。東京在這場(chǎng)8.9級(jí)的大地震中幾乎毫發(fā)未損,。這一方面是由于它距震中還有相當(dāng)一段距離,；另一方面，它有可能是世界上防震工作做得最好的地方,。盡管如此,，這座城市仍處于一片默哀之中。地震過(guò)去才三天,，這亦在情理之中,。
????在日本，幾乎人人都明白,，與其他大多數(shù)人相比,，他們的命運(yùn)更大程度上與自己國(guó)家的地質(zhì)概況綁在一起。1995年,，神戶大地震中有6,000人喪生,，日本政府花費(fèi)了1,000億美元才重建了整座城市。彼時(shí),，我正住在日本,。我清楚地記得，我當(dāng)時(shí)采訪的人中,，沒(méi)有一個(gè)認(rèn)為：事情已經(jīng)過(guò)去了,，這會(huì)是最后一回。
????正相反,。1923年的關(guān)東大地震（The Great Kanto quake）中,，東京死了13萬(wàn)人。神戶大地震,，死了6,000人,。自那以后，日本的地質(zhì)概況未曾改變,。但是,，如你可能預(yù)料的一樣，日本在處理地震災(zāi)情方面,，日益積累了大量經(jīng)驗(yàn),，成熟了許多，這是因?yàn)檫@里的每個(gè)人都深知,，地震隨時(shí)都會(huì)再來(lái),。當(dāng)我住在日本時(shí),，我一次又一次地認(rèn)為,，“大地震”來(lái)了。我不是鉆到桌子底下，就是從床上跳起來(lái),，迅速地跑到外面去，結(jié)果只發(fā)現(xiàn),，我原以為將是一場(chǎng)“大地震”的地震,，在東京簡(jiǎn)直不足掛齒。
????在3月11日這場(chǎng)大地震和隨后的海嘯中,，到底有多少人喪生,？目前尚不確切知曉。但是,，鑒于這次地震的規(guī)模之大,，死者一定遠(yuǎn)不止6,000人。與這場(chǎng)地震相比,，神戶大地震的里氏等級(jí)或者其他任何等級(jí),，簡(jiǎn)直都不足掛齒。到3月14日,，“官方”公布的死亡人數(shù)約為1,800人,。“簡(jiǎn)直是開(kāi)玩笑,。每個(gè)人都知道這不可能,。實(shí)際數(shù)字可能有1萬(wàn)人，或者2萬(wàn)人,，或者更多,。可眼下誰(shuí)又有可能知道呢,？”
????顯而易見(jiàn),，日本為其地質(zhì)概況付出了慘痛的代價(jià)——鮮血和財(cái)富。這場(chǎng)大災(zāi)難造成的破壞,，將遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過(guò)神戶震后重建的1,000億美元的費(fèi)用,。而且，現(xiàn)如今日本的經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況已遠(yuǎn)不如從前,。據(jù)美國(guó)中央情報(bào)局（CIA）的世界各國(guó)概況統(tǒng)計(jì),，日本國(guó)債已經(jīng)約為相當(dāng)于其國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值（GDP）的200%，僅次于津巴布韋,，位居世界第二,。日本首相菅直人領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的民主黨的力量因丑聞事件遭到了削弱，但他一直以來(lái)都在不遺余力地縮減開(kāi)支，以避免日本陷入財(cái)政深淵,。但是,，現(xiàn)在他的世界徹底被顛覆了。日本政府將拿出巨額開(kāi)支用于震后重建工作,，它別無(wú)選擇,。而且，與這筆開(kāi)支相比,，無(wú)論如何節(jié)省預(yù)算,，省下來(lái)的錢(qián)也會(huì)顯得微不足道。
????我還要說(shuō),，接下來(lái)，就好像過(guò)萬(wàn)圣節(jié)一般,，日本央行行長(zhǎng)白川方明會(huì)戴上本?伯南克的面具,，并竭盡模仿之能事，推行量化寬松（QE）政策,。事實(shí)上,，這類(lèi)事已然發(fā)生了。白川之所以模仿伯南克,，是因?yàn)樗仨毜眠@么干：日本銀行（Bank of Japan）已經(jīng)向各類(lèi)資金市場(chǎng)投入了15萬(wàn)億日元（約合1,830億美元）,，以便在股票狂跌、信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)驟增的情況下,，確保金融穩(wěn)定性,。本周一，白川方明表示,，“需要時(shí),，日本政府還會(huì)進(jìn)一步投入大量現(xiàn)金”。
????全球各地的市場(chǎng)已經(jīng)“預(yù)見(jiàn)”到此次日本大地震的經(jīng)濟(jì)影響,，而且隨著這場(chǎng)災(zāi)難造成的破壞會(huì)逐漸完全顯現(xiàn)出來(lái),，它們將繼續(xù)保持這種態(tài)度。周日晚上,，我和一位老友,，在東京一家經(jīng)常有銀行家和金融交易員光顧的餐廳里，共進(jìn)了一頓簡(jiǎn)短而安靜的晚餐,。他是一位數(shù)量分析師,，曾效力于摩根士丹利公司（Morgan Stanley），眼下在一家對(duì)沖基金公司供職,。他妻子的娘家在仙臺(tái),。那一帶被地震和海嘯摧毀得最厲害。在杳無(wú)音信整整兩天之后，周一早上,，他們聽(tīng)說(shuō)他妻子的母親與姐姐均幸免于難,。
????“就在昨天，我們連想都不敢想這種結(jié)果,?！彼硎尽Ｍ瑫r(shí),，他也深知,，他的工作將很快變成，要想方設(shè)法,、竭盡全力,，用最佳的方法買(mǎi)賣(mài)走強(qiáng)的日元，并應(yīng)對(duì)疲軟的股票市場(chǎng),。不過(guò),，“今晚還不會(huì)，至少還得有一陣兒,?！?/p>
????譯者：大海 |
|
|
????Once you get off the plane in Tokyo and past customs and immigration, the wreckage is everywhere to be seen -- on television, at least. In the arrivals hall of Narita airport, on a huge flat screen high definition television, I watched scenes of the extraordinary devastation from coastal towns and villages as I waited for my bus ticket. My ordinary little TV screen in Shanghai, where I live, didn't do it justice. The stunning images from NHK, Japan's national broadcaster, of the northeastern coastal towns completely destroyed by the tsunami that devastated them, had everyone's attention. People -- Japanese and foreigners alike -- were quiet, watching.
????The traffic into town on Monday, slightly before rush hour, was thin. Just three days after one of the biggest earthquakes in recorded history, a lot of people took to heart the government's admonishment to stay home. Though Tokyo was practically untouched by the magnitude 8.9 earthquake -- a function both of its distance from the epicenter and the fact that it's perhaps the most earthquake proof place in the world -- it's a city in mourning. And just three days after the fact, that's as it should be.
????There are very few people in this country who are unaware that their fate is, to a greater degree than most others, tied to geology. In 1995 the earthquake in Kobe killed 6000 people, and it cost Japan about $100 billion to rebuild. I lived here then, and I don't remember anyone I interviewed who thought, well that's it, this will be the last one.
????Quite the contrary. The Great Kanto quake of 1923 killed about 130,000 people in Tokyo. The Kobe quake, 6000. The geology since then hasn't changed; but Japan, as you'd expect, got much better at dealing with earthquakes, because everyone here knows damn well that they're coming. There was any number of instances, when I lived here, that I thought the "Big One" had come. I would dive under a desk, or jump up from bed and start to run outside, only to learn that what I thought was a "Big One'' was relatively minor in Tokyo.
????How many have been killed in this quake and the tsunami that followed? No one knows yet, but given the size, it's going to be a LOT more than 6000. This will make the Kobe quake look like a blip on the Richter scale -- or pretty much any other scale. A Japanese friend I spoke to tonight knows that. The "official'' death toll now -- roughly 1800 -- is "a joke. Everyone knows this. It's going to be 10,000, or 20,000 or more. Who knows at this point?"
????That its geology comes at a huge cost to Japan is obvious. It pays in blood and in treasure. The damage from this catastrophe will well exceed the $100 billion it cost to rebuild after Kobe. And Japan today is in far worse shape to cope with it. Its national debt already is roughly 200% of GDP -- second only to Zimbabwe, according to the CIA factbook. Prime Minster Naoto Kan -- his party weakened by scandal -- had been pushing for cuts in spending in order to try to avoid the fiscal abyss. But now his world has been upended. The Japanese government is going to spend huge sums on reconstruction -- it has no choice -- and whatever budget cuts that may come will be trivial by comparison.
????I was going to say that what comes next is that Japanese central bank chief Masaaki Shirakawa will put on his Ben Bernanke mask, as if it were Halloween, and do his best "QE" (quantitative easing) imitation. But that already happened. Today. Shirakawa did his Bernanke imitation, because he had to: the Bank of Japan pumped 15 trillion yen ($183 billion) into money markets to assure financial stability amid a plunge in stocks and surge in credit risk. The BOJ chief told reporters today that cash injections will "continue as needed."
????Markets around the world are already "discounting" the economic impact of the Great Tohoku earthquake, as they will continue to as the extent of the damage unfolds. In a Tokyo restaurant usually packed with bankers and traders, I had a quick, quiet dinner this evening with a guy I've known for a long time; a "quant'' who used to work for Morgan Stanley (MS, Fortune 500), and is now with a hedge fund. His wife's family is from Sendai, where the damage from the quake and tsunami are most pronounced. After two days of not hearing anything, they heard this morning that his sister-in-law and mother-in-law had both survived.
????"Wouldn't have bet on that yesterday," he said. He knows his professional life will soon enough be about figuring out how best to trade a strengthening Yen and a weakening stock market. But not yet, he said. "Not tonight. Not for awhile." |
