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????我們大多數(shù)人都不愿支付更高的價(jià)格，但近來(lái)關(guān)于“我們是否應(yīng)當(dāng)允許通脹小幅走高以幫助美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)”的爭(zhēng)論逐漸升溫,。

????本周早些時(shí)候,，獲得諾貝爾獎(jiǎng)的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家羅伯特?恩格爾與另一名諾貝爾獎(jiǎng)得主保羅?克魯格曼共同分析了物價(jià)快速增長(zhǎng)的情景。他們認(rèn)為,，這將幫助降低失業(yè),。而且克魯格曼認(rèn)為，為提振經(jīng)濟(jì),，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)（Federal Reserve）需要容忍最高4%的通脹率,。這是美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)主席本?伯南克所設(shè)定通脹目標(biāo)的近兩倍。伯南克一直表示,，高于這一水平將“十分危險(xiǎn)”,，可能折斷美國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇之路。

????伯南克也許說(shuō)得對(duì),，但經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家們呼吁提高通脹的觀(guān)點(diǎn)也值得考慮,。

????房屋和公寓租金上漲將成為推動(dòng)通脹的一大動(dòng)力。畢竟,，房租在消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)中占比相對(duì)較高（31%）,。在剔除價(jià)格波動(dòng)較大的食品和能源商品的核心通脹率中，房租占比就更高了,，達(dá)到41%左右,。

????從全美范圍來(lái)看，由于擁有自有住房的家庭減少,，房租已經(jīng)快速上漲,。美國(guó)商務(wù)部（U.S. Commerce Department）本月早些時(shí)候發(fā)布的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，今年前3個(gè)月,，房租要價(jià)中位值為每月721美元——較上年同期上漲5.6%,。與此同時(shí)，即便當(dāng)前是買(mǎi)房最便宜的時(shí)期,，住房自有率已跌至65.5%,，低于2005年的峰值69.2%。

????確實(shí),，房屋租賃市場(chǎng)可以很快推高通脹,。如果有可能，當(dāng)然沒(méi)人愿意多付錢(qián)給房東,。但房租上漲的確可能有利于房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)和整體經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng),。正如一些經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家所指，房租應(yīng)漲至令購(gòu)房相對(duì)更便宜的水平,。一旦這種情況發(fā)生,，可以幫助扭轉(zhuǎn)房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的頹勢(shì)。

????但Trulia最新的租買(mǎi)指數(shù)顯示,，這種情況事實(shí)上在美國(guó)很多城市早就發(fā)生了,。房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)的確在恢復(fù)，但遠(yuǎn)未復(fù)蘇,，房?jī)r(jià)仍在下跌,，銀行繼續(xù)收緊放貸標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。

????當(dāng)然,，通脹加速分析并不限于房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng),。如果價(jià)格小幅攀升，這些資產(chǎn)的價(jià)值理論上也會(huì)增長(zhǎng),。工資也是一樣,，可以讓消費(fèi)者感覺(jué)更富有一些。而且,，收入增加可以讓家庭更容易償還債務(wù),。另外，由于企業(yè)和家庭都預(yù)計(jì)價(jià)格上漲,，些許通脹可以讓他們提早（而不是延后）支出和投資,。等等，諸如此類(lèi),。

????但經(jīng)濟(jì)不是這樣簡(jiǎn)單地運(yùn)行,。鑒于一系列不利于市場(chǎng)的因素，顯然這樣的理論是基于一些非常大膽的假設(shè)之上。比如,，《財(cái)富》（Fortune）雜志的史蒂芬?甘德?tīng)柋局茉缧r(shí)候就指出,，去年大部分時(shí)間都保持增長(zhǎng)的美國(guó)大銀行放貸在2012年前3個(gè)月出現(xiàn)了下降,。

????所有這些都使得伯南克的工作錯(cuò)綜復(fù)雜（仿佛這還不夠明顯一樣）,。即便如今經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)看來(lái)有了更為堅(jiān)實(shí)的基礎(chǔ)，這位央行行長(zhǎng)仍堅(jiān)持至少在2014年底前保持超低短期利率,。當(dāng)然,，如果房租上漲開(kāi)始把通脹推高至2%的目標(biāo)水平之上,，超低短期利率將更難保持。

????在這一點(diǎn)上,，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)可能需要問(wèn)的是,，如果允許物價(jià)上漲，失業(yè)率有望下降多少,？或者,，更重要的是，這樣做會(huì)有什么風(fēng)險(xiǎn),？

????譯者：早稻米

????Most of us don't want to pay higher prices, but there's a growing debate over whether we should allow inflation to edge a little higher to help the U.S. economy grow.

????Earlier this week, Nobel Prize-winning economist Robert Engle joined fellow prize winner Paul Krugman in building the case for rapidly rising prices. They say it could help reduce joblessness, with Krugman suggesting that the Federal Reserve tolerate inflation of up to 4% to boost the economy. That's about double what Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke has been targeting. Anything higher than that, Bernanke has said, would be "very reckless" and could potentially derail the economic recovery.

????He might be right, but economists urging higher prices also have a point worth considering.

????Increased rates for rental homes and apartments will serve as a big drive of a rise in inflation. After all, rents make up a relatively significant share (31%) of the consumer price index. And when it comes to core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy items, rents make up an even larger share of about 41%.

????Nationwide, the price for rentals has risen rapidly as fewer people own homes. During the first three months this year, the median asking price for rentals was $721 per month -- up 5.6% from a year earlier -- the U.S. Commerce Department reported earlier this week. Meanwhile, even as it's one of the cheapest times to buy, homeownership has fallen to 65.5% from its 2005 peak of 69.2%.

????Indeed, the rental market could soon push inflation higher. Nobody wants to pay their landlords more if they can avoid it. But higher rents could actually be a good thing for both the housing market and the broader economy. As some economists see it, the price of rentals would rise to the point where it becomes cheaper to buy. And if that happens, that could help reverse the housing market's malaise.

????But that has already happened across many U.S. cities, according to Trulia's latest rent vs. buy index. And the housing market, while indeed healing, is still far from revived, as home prices continue to fall and banks tighten their lending standards.

????Of course, the case for more inflation goes beyond the real estate market. If prices rise by just a little, the value of those assets would theoretically rise too. And so could wages, which could leave consumers feeling a little richer. And such a pay bump could make it a little easier for households to pay down their debts. What's more, as businesses and households expect prices to rise, a little inflation could get them to spend and invest sooner rather than later. And so on.

????But the economy doesn't work this neatly. Given the litany of factors working against the market, it's easy to see how such theories are based on some very bold assumptions. For instance, as Fortune's Stephen Gandel highlighted earlier this week, lending by the big banks dropped during the first three months of 2012 after rising for most of last year.

????All this makes Bernanke's job terribly complicated (as if that wasn't already obvious). Even as the economy appears to be on firmer footing, the central banker has held his course toward keeping short-term interest rates ultra low until at least the end of 2014. Of course, this might be harder to do if higher prices for rentals start pushing up inflation beyond his 2% target.

????At that point, the Fed will probably need to ask how much unemployment might fall if they allowed prices to rise. And, perhaps more importantly, what are the risks of such a move?