????實(shí)際上，很多巴菲特的忠實(shí)粉絲稱,，如今市場(chǎng)給予這位奧馬哈先知的總估值為零,。他們?nèi)绾蔚玫竭@樣的結(jié)論呢？經(jīng)營(yíng)Wintergreen Advisors的巴菲特投資者戴維?溫特斯稱,，如果將伯克希爾分拆出售,，并將所得分給投資者，每股將獲得16萬(wàn)美元,，比當(dāng)前股價(jià)119,650美元高出約33%,。（伯克希爾還有便宜一些的B股，股價(jià)79.76美元,。拆賣價(jià)值略高于106美元,。）溫特斯說(shuō)，“（這等于說(shuō)）投資者分文不花就得到了巴菲特的投資頭腦,?！?/p>
????但這并不意味著如果巴菲特突然宣布離職，伯克希爾股價(jià)不會(huì)下跌,。像伯克希爾這樣的企業(yè)集團(tuán),，股價(jià)往往低于部分加總估值，有時(shí)折價(jià)幅度可能高達(dá)50%,。
????對(duì)沖基金經(jīng)理,、巴菲特投資者惠特尼?蒂爾森就曾經(jīng)說(shuō)過(guò)，市場(chǎng)低估了伯克希爾的價(jià)值,。但他同意,，如果巴菲特的癌癥診斷結(jié)果是他只剩下4個(gè)月生命，伯克希爾的股價(jià)將至少下跌10%,，市值縮水110億美元,。或許，巴菲特對(duì)于伯克希爾的最大價(jià)值是他選擇業(yè)務(wù)和項(xiàng)目能拿到更有利的條款,，因?yàn)樗前头铺?。蒂爾森舉例說(shuō)，2006年巴菲特收購(gòu)以色列金屬公司Iscar的價(jià)格只有其他人可能須付價(jià)格的一半,。金融危機(jī)期間,，巴菲特購(gòu)入高盛（Goldman Sachs）股票的條件甚至優(yōu)于美國(guó)政府。很多公司,，特別是那些似乎遇到了麻煩的公司,，都希望宣稱，巴菲特對(duì)它們抱有信心,。所有這些都反映在了伯克希爾的股價(jià)中,，但具體幾何卻很難講?！鞍头铺厥莻€(gè)做聰明事的聰明人,，”溫特斯說(shuō)?！皼](méi)人知道他還能活多久,，還會(huì)做多少聰明事?！?/p>
????但有一點(diǎn)很清楚,，巴菲特眼下不會(huì)采取什么行動(dòng)。
????譯者：早稻米 |
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????In fact, a number of Buffett's ardent fans say that the value that the market puts on the Oracle of Omaha these days is grand total of zero. How do they get at that conclusion? They say if you were to split up Berkshire and sell if off for parts, and then split up the proceeds to investors the product would be $160,000 a share, according to Buffett investor David Winters, who runs the Wintergreen Advisors, or roughly 33% more than the just over $119,650 the shares trade at now. (Berkshire also has a class of cheaper B shares (BRKB) shares that trade for $79.76. The break-up value for those shares is just over $106.) Says Winters, "You are getting Buffett's brain for free."
????But that doesn't mean that Berkshires stock is unlikely to drop if Buffett were to suddenly announce he was leaving the company. Conglomerates, which is what Berkshire is now, often trade a discount to the sum of their parts, sometimes as large as 50%.
????Whitney Tilson, a hedge fund manager and Buffett investor, has said it the past that the market is undervaluing Berkshire. Still, he agrees that if Buffett's cancer prognosis was that he had four months to live, the stock would at least drop by 10%, or roughly $11 billion. Perhaps, the biggest value that Buffett adds to Berkshire is his ability to pick up businesses and investments at better terms than others because he is Buffett. Tilson says, for example, Buffett was able to buy Israeli metal company Iscar in 2006 at a 50% discount to what others might have had to pay. During the financial crisis, Buffett was able to pick up shares in Goldman Sachs at better terms than were even secured by the U.S. government. Companies, particularly ones seemingly in trouble, want to be able to say that Buffett believes in them. All that is certainly baked into the value of Berkshire's shares but how much is hard to tell. "Buffett is a smart guy who does smart things," says Winters. "No one knows how long he is going to live and how many more smart things he will do."
????But what is clear is that Buffett's window for smart moves is far more closed than open. |
