????如果弗爾南德斯一意孤行,，除YPF外，其他幾家能源公司也將難以幸免,，陸續(xù)面臨著資產(chǎn)被迅速國(guó)有化的風(fēng)險(xiǎn),。雪佛龍（Chevron）、道達(dá)爾（Total）和?？松梨冢‥xxonMobil）是在阿根廷開(kāi)展業(yè)務(wù)的三大國(guó)際能源公司,，但是與自身規(guī)模相比，它們?cè)诎⒏⒌漠a(chǎn)量則顯得微不足道,。道達(dá)爾在阿根廷日產(chǎn)石油約86,000桶,，占總產(chǎn)量的4%，在阿根廷的投入最大,。雪佛龍位居第二,，日產(chǎn)石油約27,000桶，占總產(chǎn)量的1%,。?？松梨谖垂计湓诎⒏⒌漠a(chǎn)量，但它最近與加拿大的美洲天然氣公司（Americas Petrogas）簽署了協(xié)議,，在頁(yè)巖氣項(xiàng)目上投資7,600萬(wàn)美元,。
????另外,，一些小型石油企業(yè)也將遭殃。阿帕奇（Apache）在阿根廷的產(chǎn)量占其總量的6.4%,。巴克萊銀行（Barclays）分析師指出,，2012年，阿帕奇的產(chǎn)量將增長(zhǎng)12%,。本周一,，受雷普索爾國(guó)有化消息影響，阿帕奇股價(jià)大幅跳水,，但此后又出現(xiàn)小幅回升。幸運(yùn)的是,，阿帕奇在阿根廷的產(chǎn)量只占去年總收入的3%,。總體看來(lái),，阿帕奇在阿根廷的資產(chǎn)占其總儲(chǔ)量的4%左右,。位于俄克拉荷馬州的WPX能源公司是另外一家在阿根廷開(kāi)展業(yè)務(wù)的美國(guó)公司，在阿根廷日產(chǎn)石油9,500桶,，占公司總產(chǎn)量的4.1%,。
????加拿大能源公司Azabache Energy和Madalena Ventures的損失最為慘重，因?yàn)樗鼈儙缀鯇⑷磕茉促Y產(chǎn)都集中在了阿根廷,。雷普索爾國(guó)有化公告發(fā)出后,，這兩家規(guī)模相對(duì)較小的能源公司股價(jià)暴跌。Azabache的憂慮最深——與雷普索爾的遭遇類似,，阿根廷政府已經(jīng)對(duì)它發(fā)出警告,，要求它加大油田投資，否則油田將面臨著被國(guó)有化的風(fēng)險(xiǎn),。美洲天然氣公司位于阿根廷南部油氣資源豐富的內(nèi)烏肯省,，占地面積達(dá)210萬(wàn)英畝，是加拿大在阿根廷的又一家單一業(yè)務(wù)公司,，規(guī)模超過(guò)上述兩家公司,。上述幾家公司表示，它們并不擔(dān)心土地被收回,，但是從本周的股價(jià)可以看出,，投資者對(duì)這番表態(tài)并不買賬。
????此外,，阿根廷邊境線以南的許多拉丁美洲石油公司也在為他們的阿根廷資產(chǎn)擔(dān)驚受怕,。墨西哥國(guó)有石油公司墨西哥國(guó)家石油公司（Pemex）擁有雷普索爾10%的股份，他們已經(jīng)受到?jīng)_擊,。私人企業(yè)布里達(dá)斯能源公司（Bridas Energy）借助其泛美洲能源（Pan American Energy）分支機(jī)構(gòu),，成為緊隨YPF之后的阿根廷第二大能源公司,。雖然布里達(dá)斯能源公司是私有企業(yè)，但是其50%股份由中國(guó)大型國(guó)有能源公司中國(guó)海洋石油公司（Cnooc）公司擁有,。此外,，上個(gè)月，阿根廷某省因?yàn)橥顿Y匱乏,，撤銷了油田特許,，使巴西國(guó)家石油公司（Petrobras）的子公司——巴西國(guó)家石油公司阿根廷分公司陷入恐慌，造成當(dāng)月股價(jià)下降約9%左右,。
????或許,，阿根廷的國(guó)有化目標(biāo)遠(yuǎn)不止勘探和生產(chǎn)企業(yè)。阿根廷最大的管道運(yùn)營(yíng)商Transportadora de Gas del Sur似乎也將成為費(fèi)爾南德斯在能源野心驅(qū)使下的又一塊“肥肉”,。與YPF類似,，TGS此前也是政府控股的公司，于二十世紀(jì)九十年代末被私有化,，擁有數(shù)條天然氣出口的重要管道,。由于擔(dān)心成為下一個(gè)被國(guó)有化的目標(biāo)，本周TGS公司股份下跌了10%,。
????最終,，費(fèi)爾南德斯將控制阿根廷的整個(gè)石油行業(yè)；但是,，她無(wú)須立即采取行動(dòng),。在對(duì)目標(biāo)下手之前，她可以不動(dòng)聲色地等著這些公司自己完成所有艱難的前期工作,，然后再突然動(dòng)手,，發(fā)動(dòng)致命一擊。有報(bào)告稱,，政府官員已經(jīng)給其他能源公司吃了定心丸,，但實(shí)際上政府的保證已大打折扣。如果阿根廷的參議院就國(guó)有化雷普索爾所持股權(quán)投票,，未來(lái)十年,，全世界的能源公司都會(huì)對(duì)在阿根廷開(kāi)展業(yè)務(wù)喪失安全感。
????譯者：?jiǎn)虡?shù)靜/汪皓 |
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????Beyond YPF there is a smattering of energy companies that could soon find their properties suddenly taken away from them in the next few months if Fernandez has her way. Chevron (CVX), Total (TOT) and ExxonMobil (XOM) are the three major international energy companies with activities down in Argentina, but their exposure to the country is pretty small compared to their size. Total has the biggest exposure as it produces 86,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, which represents around 4% of the company's total production. Chevron is next with 27 Kboe/d, representing around 1% of its production. ExxonMobil doesn't show any production from Argentina but it did recently sign a deal with Canada's Americas Petrogas to spend up to $76 million for a stake in a shale gas project.
????Outside the majors there are a number of smaller oil companies that could get burned by Argentina. Apache (APA) derives 6.4% of its production from its Argentine assets. Production is slated to grow by 12% in 2012, according to the analysts at Barclays. Its shares fell hard Monday on the Repsol news but have since recovered slightly. Luckily for Apache, its Argentine production made up just 3% of the firm's total revenue last year. Overall, its Argentine assets make up around 4% of its reserves. Oklahoma-based WPX Energy (WPX) is another U.S. independent with exposure to Argentina. It produces around 9.5 Kboe/d in the country, making up 4.1% of its production.
????The Canadian energy companies Azabache Energy (AZBCF) and Madalena Ventures (MDLNF) have the most to lose as they basically have all their energy holdings wrapped up in Argentina. The two relatively tiny energy companies saw their stocks collapse this week following the Repsol expropriation announcement. Azabache has the most to be worried about -- it has been warned by the government, as had Repsol, to increase spending on its fields or risk losing them. Americas Petrogas is another Canadian pure play in Argentina. It is larger than the other two Canadian pure plays with a 2.1 million-acre position in Argentina's prolific Neuquén Basin in the south of the country. The companies have said that they are not worried about having their lands expropriated, but judging by their stock prices this week, investors aren't buying it.
????South of the border, there are number of Latin American oil companies that should be concerned about their Argentine assets. Pemex, Mexico's state-owned oil company, owns 10% of Repsol, so it is already feeling the heat. Privately-held Bridas Energy, through its Pan American Energy affiliate, is the second-largest energy company in Argentina behind YPF. While it is privately held, half of the company is owned by Cnooc, one of the large state-controlled Chinese energy companies. Meanwhile, Petrobras Argentina, a subsidiary of Brazil's Petrobras, was dealt a scare when an Argentine province last month revoked one of their oilfield concessions due to lack of investment. Its stock is down around 9% for the month.
????Argentina may not stop at just the exploration and production companies. Transportadora de Gas del Sur (TGS), Argentina's largest pipeline operator, seems like a tasty target for Fernandez's energy ambitions. Like YPF, TGS also was a former government-controlled company, which was privatized in the late 1990s. It operates several key pipelines that are critical to moving gas out of the country for export. The company's stock is down 10% this week on fears that it could be next.
????Fernandez could eventually wrest control of Argentina's entire oil industry, but she doesn't have to do it tomorrow. She could wait for the target companies to do all the initial hard work before swooping in for the kill. There are reports that government officials have reassured other energy companies that they are safe, but the government's word has been compromised. If the Argentine Senate votes to expropriate Repsol's holdings, the truth is that no energy company will ever feel safe to operate in Argentina for decades to come. |
