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????如果YPF被國(guó)有化，雷普索爾公司將蒙受損失。

????阿根廷即將國(guó)有化雷普索爾（Repsol）在阿根廷的子公司YPF可能預(yù)示著阿根廷能源產(chǎn)業(yè)全面國(guó)有化的開(kāi)始,。

????誰(shuí)會(huì)是這場(chǎng)行動(dòng)的最大受害者,？大多數(shù)情況下，大型跨國(guó)能源公司受損不會(huì)過(guò)于嚴(yán)重,。由于阿根廷政府拿走了能源項(xiàng)目利潤(rùn)的大頭,，它們刻意避免在阿根廷大舉投資。誠(chéng)然,，阿根廷政府通過(guò)激勵(lì)方案吸引了數(shù)家國(guó)內(nèi)外能源公司,，但大多數(shù)激勵(lì)方案已在今年早些時(shí)候取消。而現(xiàn)在,，當(dāng)初“上鉤”的公司面臨著失去一切的危險(xiǎn),。

????阿根廷以其歐式氣息引以為傲。美麗的學(xué)院派建筑和寬闊的大道使阿根廷不斷擴(kuò)張的首都布宜諾斯艾利斯獲得了“南美巴黎”的稱號(hào),。雖然阿根廷的文化,、建筑、飲食和語(yǔ)言與歐洲類似,，但是在過(guò)去十年中,，其經(jīng)濟(jì)和政府行事風(fēng)格更像香蕉共和國(guó)（中、南美洲發(fā)展中國(guó)家－－譯注）,，而不象歐盟成員國(guó),。從過(guò)去十年令人震驚的政府債務(wù)違約，到近期國(guó)有化240億美元規(guī)模的養(yǎng)老基金,，阿根廷正千方百計(jì)地疏遠(yuǎn)國(guó)內(nèi)外的投資者,。

????阿根廷政府讓投資者倍感挫敗的一個(gè)領(lǐng)域就是能源行業(yè)。阿根廷擁有龐大的石油和天然氣儲(chǔ)備,，足以滿足國(guó)內(nèi)需求,，同時(shí)還有大量油氣產(chǎn)品可以用于出口。但阿根廷卻是天然氣和石油產(chǎn)品的凈進(jìn)口國(guó),。這主要是因?yàn)檫^(guò)去十年政府債務(wù)違約期間,，能源價(jià)格飛漲，致使一系列法律出臺(tái),。阿根廷政府采取措施,，控制能源產(chǎn)品價(jià)格，限制天然氣的出口,，以安撫不安的民眾,。這樣一來(lái)，能源公司若想贏利就變得異常艱難,。而一旦它們真正實(shí)現(xiàn)贏利,，政府又會(huì)征收35%的利潤(rùn)稅,，并根據(jù)石油產(chǎn)品價(jià)值額外征收12%的特許權(quán)使用費(fèi)。

????那些不熱衷在阿根廷投資的國(guó)外能源公司以及YPF等國(guó)內(nèi)能源公司都減少了油氣產(chǎn)量,。1998年至2011年間,，阿根廷的能源產(chǎn)量驟降了三分之一。阿根廷政府深知,，必須采取措施刺激生產(chǎn),，于是在2006至2008年間，向從頁(yè)巖等非傳統(tǒng)來(lái)源提取油氣產(chǎn)品的公司提供價(jià)格激勵(lì),。如此一來(lái),，許多公司開(kāi)始在阿根廷尋找新的石油和天然氣來(lái)源。

????但是,，正當(dāng)有些公司取得一定進(jìn)展時(shí)，阿根廷政府卻改變了策略,。自克莉絲蒂娜?費(fèi)爾南德斯?德基什內(nèi)爾去年取得壓倒性勝利,，再次當(dāng)選阿根廷總統(tǒng)以來(lái)，能源公司的運(yùn)營(yíng)變得舉步維艱,。她首先要求國(guó)內(nèi)外能源公司返還其利潤(rùn)所得,，對(duì)阿根廷進(jìn)行再投資。今年2月,，她突然取消了使鉆探具備商業(yè)價(jià)值的激勵(lì)方案,。隨后，又提出將能源行業(yè)“收歸人民所有”,。

????YPF是阿根廷有史以來(lái)最大的能源公司,，也被外界視為這次國(guó)有化行動(dòng)的頭號(hào)目標(biāo)。二十世紀(jì)九十年代末,，YPF被私有化并被公開(kāi)出售,。目前，西班牙雷普索爾擁有YPF約57%的股份,，但是如果阿根廷政府成功使其資產(chǎn)國(guó)有化,，雷普索爾在YPF的控股權(quán)將銳減到6%。YPF是雷普索爾能源產(chǎn)品的主要組成部分,，占其總儲(chǔ)量的42%,。

????Argentina's impending expropriation of Repsol's Argentine subsidiary, YPF, could signal the start of a total takeover of the nation's energy industry.

????Who will be hurt most? The large multi-national energy companies will, for the most part, come out relatively unscathed. They had shunned making large investments in the country due to the government's high profit take on energy projects. But the government did manage to lure in a few domestic and international energy companies through incentives, most of which were canceled earlier this year. Those companies that took the bait now stand to lose everything.

????Argentina prides itself as being very European. Its sprawling capital, Buenos Aires, is known as the Paris of South America for its beautiful beaux-arts buildings and wide boulevards. But while Argentina's culture, architecture, food and language may be very European, its economy and government in the past decade has functioned more like a banana republic than a member of the European Union. From its shocking government debt default last decade to the recent $24 billion expropriation of the nation's pension funds, Argentina has gone out of its way to alienate investors, both foreign and domestic.

????One area where the government has failed investors is in its energy industry. Argentina has sizable oil and natural gas reserves, enough to meet its own demand and still have more than enough to export abroad. Nevertheless, the country is a net importer of natural gas and oil products. Much of this discrepancy derives from a series of laws instituted during the default last decade when energy prices skyrocketed. The government moved to cap energy product prices and restrict the export of natural gas to appease a restless population. This made it very hard for energy companies to make a profit. When they did, the government would tax profits by 35% and take an additional 12% royalty fee on the value of oil production.

????Foreign energy companies where not enthused about investing in the country and domestic energy companies, like YPF, decreased their production. From 1998 to 2011, Argentina's energy output plummeted by a third. Knowing that they needed to do something to spur production, in 2006 and 2008, the government offered pricing incentives to companies that produced oil and gas from unconventional plays, like shale. This induced many companies to start looking for new sources of oil and natural gas in the country.

????But just when some companies were showing some success, the government changed tack. Since winning reelection in a landslide last year, Argentina's President, Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, has been making life hard for the energy companies. She first ordered that domestic and foreign energy companies repatriate all the proceeds from their profits and reinvest them back into the country. In February, she abruptly canceled the incentives that had made it worthwhile to drill. Then came talk of taking the industry "back for the people."

????YPF was seen as the most at risk for expropriation as it is by far the largest energy company in Argentina. YPF was privatized in the late-1990s and sold off to the public. Spain's Repsol currently owns around 57% of the company, but could be left with just 6% if the government is successful in expropriating its assets. YPF is a major part of Repsol's energy portfolio, making up 42% of its reserves.