???? 成熟經(jīng)濟體中,，消費支出往往在經(jīng)濟活動中占據(jù)相當大的比重，最顯著的例子就是美國：該國的消費支出約占經(jīng)濟總量的70%,。多年來,，備受指責的美國消費社會不僅支撐著美國經(jīng)濟，而且吸納了一大塊中國出口商品,，由此也協(xié)助驅(qū)動了中國經(jīng)濟的高速增長,。但現(xiàn)如今,，美國消費者一個子兒也沒有了，不能再指望他們吸收更多的中國商品,。同時,，歐洲的經(jīng)濟困局意味著，寄望歐洲人消化過剩的中國商品也是不現(xiàn)實的?，F(xiàn)在,，這份責任落在了中國消費者的肩上，他們目前的消費支出僅占中國GDP的44%,。
???? 為了提升中國消費者的購買力,，中國需要把更多的錢放進老百姓的口袋里，而且要讓他們放心大膽地把這筆錢花出去,。一條可行之策是通過減稅（比如標準稅率為17%的增值稅）降低商品價格,。增值稅往往會對消費支出產(chǎn)生負面影響，因為就本質(zhì)而言,，購物者是最終的納稅主體,。降低甚或取消增值稅、以及中央和地方政府征收的其他消費稅,，將對消費支出產(chǎn)生立竿見影的積極影響,。
????中國也應(yīng)該找出對策，遏制中國消費者在海外花錢的趨勢,。中國最大的信用卡發(fā)行商中國銀聯(lián)（China UnionPay）提供的數(shù)據(jù)顯示,，中國消費者去年在海外花費了近500億美元，較2010年飆升了66%,。中國同期的消費品零售總額僅增長了17%,，遠低于中國公民海外消費的增速。現(xiàn)在,，越來越多的中國人走出國門，但出國的主要原因之一在于,，他們想購買要么在國內(nèi)無法買到,，要么因沉重的進口關(guān)稅和其他稅收等因素導(dǎo)致國內(nèi)售價過于高昂的商品。根據(jù)中國商務(wù)部（the Chinese Ministry of Commerce）提供的數(shù)據(jù),，中國奢侈品的價格比美國高出了大約50% ,，比法國更是足足高出了72%。世界奢侈品協(xié)會（World Luxury Association）估計,，中國消費者去年的奢侈品購買開支約占歐洲奢侈品銷售總額的62%,。諷刺的是，他們所購買的許多商品其實都是在中國本土生產(chǎn)制造的,。
????但本文所說的中國消費者不只是那些有錢購買普拉達（Prada）皮包的富裕群體,。就算依靠微薄工資生活的10億左右中國人的消費支出僅僅出現(xiàn)小幅增長,，也足以對中國消費市場產(chǎn)生巨大的推動作用。中國政府或許可以效仿美國在上一輪經(jīng)濟衰退期間的做法,，向民眾派發(fā)“消費券”,，臨時推動一下消費支出。就長期而言,，政府應(yīng)允許全國各地的工資緩慢增長或制定最低工資制度,，從而讓更多的民眾能夠買得起這些年來他們一直在生產(chǎn)制造的商品。當然,，所有這些政策都應(yīng)該保持平衡,，逐步推行，以確保消費者購買力的增加部分不會被通貨膨脹吞噬,。
????最終,，中國人需要無憂無慮地花錢購物，以幫助中國經(jīng)濟進入下一個發(fā)展階段,。要讓中國老百姓更放心地增加開支,，減少儲蓄，中國社保體系還需經(jīng)歷一段漫長進程,，逐步改善,。消費支出增長的凈效應(yīng)可能是經(jīng)濟活動的顯著增長，它將幫助中國經(jīng)濟避免任何形式的著陸,，無論是硬著陸,，還是軟著陸。
????譯者：任文科 |
|
|
??? Consumer spending makes up the bulk of economic activity in mature economies, most notably in the U.S. where it is around 70% of the economy. The much-maligned American consumer society not only held up the U.S. economy for years, but also helped drive China's growth rate by absorbing a large chunk of its exports. But now, U.S. consumers are tapped out, and therefore cannot be counted on to suck up more Chinese goods. Meanwhile, Europe's economic malaise means that it cannot be counted on either to help mop up surplus Chinese goods. That duty now falls to the Chinese consumer, whose spending comprises just 44% of the country's GDP.
?? To empower the Chinese consumer, Beijing needs to put more money in people's pockets and make them feel comfortable enough to spend it. One way to do this is to make goods cheaper by lowering taxes, like the national 17% VAT tax. VAT taxes have a negative impact on consumer spending as they basically tax people for shopping. Lowering or removing the VAT, along with a number of other state and local consumption taxes, would have a direct and immediate positive impact on consumer spending.
????The country should also look for a way to keep Chinese consumers from spending money abroad. Chinese consumers spent nearly $50 billion overseas last year, which was up 66% from 2010, according to China UnionPay, the nation's largest credit card issuer. China's overall retail sales growth was up 17% during the same time, far less than the growth in foreign spending. The Chinese are traveling more than ever before, but one of the primary reasons is because they want to go shopping for goods that they either can't get in China or that are too expensive due to all the heavy taxes and import duties. Prices for luxury goods in China are around 50% higher than in the U.S. and a whopping 72% higher than in France, according to the Chinese Ministry of Commerce. The World Luxury Association estimates that the Chinese consumer made up around 62% of all luxury sales in Europe last year. Ironically, much of what they are buying was originally made in China.
????But it isn't just the well-off Chinese buying Prada purses that should be targeted here. The Chinese consumer market could get a huge boost from just a fraction of growth in spending by the billion or so Chinese who live on meager wages. The Chinese government may consider sending out stimulus checks like the U.S. did during its last recession to give a temporary boost to consumer spending. For a longer term fix, the government should allow wages to slowly rise across the country or possibly institute a minimum wage so that more people can afford to buy the things that they have been making all these years. Of course, these policies should be balanced and introduced gradually to ensure that the gains in consumer spending aren't eaten up by inflation.
????Ultimately, the Chinese need to feel comfortable spending to help China move into its next phase of economic growth. Improvements in the nation's social security system would go a long way to make it easier for Chinese people to spend more and save less. The net effect could be a strong increase in economic activity, which could help China avoid any sort of landing, be it hard or soft.? |
