????顯然,，管理著全球最大共同基金Pimco Total Return的比爾?格羅斯不僅有挑投資產(chǎn)品的眼光,，也有挑電影的眼光。
????格羅斯素以離奇古怪的致投資者信而著稱,。他在信中曾給出過愛的建議（特別是針對歐洲）,，也談過為什么討厭自動沖水馬桶,。本月的致投資者信于周二發(fā)布，這次給出的卻是電影建議,。格羅斯推薦的大銀幕之作是《大逃亡》（The Great Escape）,。
????這部1963年上映的電影講的是二戰(zhàn)期間，囚禁在德國戰(zhàn)俘營內(nèi)的一隊(duì)美國士兵在史蒂夫?邁奎因扮演的男主角帶領(lǐng)下如何逃離的故事,。格羅斯稱,，這部電影讓他聯(lián)想到了當(dāng)今很多投資者的感受。天哪,。只是這次扮演納粹角色的是債務(wù),。如果不挖一條大地道，你都不知道能不能撐到退休,。聽起來可不太妙,。
????基本上格羅斯的觀點(diǎn)是未來數(shù)年，市場以及投資者將陷入一個(gè)低回報(bào)的世界,，不得脫身,。因?yàn)閹资陙硖嵴袷袌龅乃幸蛩丶磳⒛孓D(zhuǎn)，包括債務(wù)上升,，低通脹,，低利率等。隨著這一切徐徐展開,，特別是杠桿率下降,，格羅斯預(yù)計(jì)市場將遭遇強(qiáng)勁的逆風(fēng)。至少根據(jù)我這15年來對市場的觀察,，增長一直是決定一只股票價(jià)值的最重要因素之一,。格羅斯認(rèn)為，未來這種聯(lián)系將弱化,，因?yàn)樵鲩L將變得不再那么可預(yù)測,，增速將放緩，而利率和通脹將上升,，導(dǎo)致未來現(xiàn)金流的現(xiàn)值下降（可以問問你的MBA朋友們,，這些意味著什么）。格羅斯表示,，鑒于未來可能發(fā)生的情況,，公司可獲得的溢價(jià)將減少，他預(yù)計(jì)目前盈利及派息的公司將具有更高的估值,，這也會成為一大變化,。
????那么，格羅斯的建議是什么呢？總體而言,，格羅斯認(rèn)為債券優(yōu)于股票,，這一點(diǎn)完全在意料之中。即便他說債券平均回報(bào)率可能只有4%,。如果打算買股票,，格羅斯建議遠(yuǎn)離像蘋果公司（Apple）這樣所謂的成長型股，買入?？松梨冢‥xxon Mobil）等持續(xù)派息的股票,。也就是說，安全第一,。此外,，格羅斯預(yù)計(jì)中國、巴西等新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體的公司股票走勢將優(yōu)于歐美國家的股票,。最后,，他建議在投資組合中加入大宗商品，幫助抵御通脹,。
????格羅斯此番市場前景預(yù)測存在的問題是,，他描述的“大逃亡”情形聽起來與他所謂的“新常態(tài)”并無太大區(qū)別。三年前,，他創(chuàng)造了這個(gè)新詞,，來描述當(dāng)時(shí)的市場走向。但在經(jīng)過2008年底和2009年初的市場調(diào)整后,，投資股市并沒有給我們坐牢之感,。去年市場震蕩。但總體而言,，本輪市場反彈表現(xiàn)不錯(cuò),，好于整體經(jīng)濟(jì)的復(fù)蘇情況。而且,，今年以來股市繼續(xù)延續(xù)了顯著回升的態(tài)勢。 |
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????Apparently, Bill Gross picks movies as well as investments.
????Bond investor Gross, who runs the world's largest mutual fund Pimco Total Return (PTTRX), is known for his quirky letters to investors. In the past he has dispensed love advice (specifically for Europe) and written about why he hates automatic flush toilets. His letter this month, which came out on Tuesday, instead offers movie advice. Gross' big screen pick is The Great Escape.
????The movie came out in 1963, is about World War II and stars Steve McQueen as the head of a group of American soldiers trapped in a German POW camp. Gross says the movie reminds him a lot of what it feels like to be an investor today. Ouch. Except it's debt that is playing the role of the Nazis. And if you don't dig a really big tunnel it's not clear you will ever afford to retire. Not encouraging stuff.
????Basically, Gross' thesis is that the market, and investors, will be trapped in a low-return world for the next few years. That's because all the things that have been boosting the market for the past few decades - rising debt, low inflation, low-interest rates - are about to reverse. And as all that unwinds, particularly the leverage, Gross sees some pretty strong headwinds for the market. Growth, at least in the 15 years that I have been watching the market, has always been one of the biggest factors in determining what a stock is worth. Less so, in the future Gross says. Because growth is going to be less predictable, and slower, and interest rates and inflation will be higher, lowering the present value of those future dollars (ask your MBA friends what that means), Gross says companies will get less of a premium for what might happen in the future. Instead he thinks companies that generate earnings now, and pay dividends now will get higher valuations, which again would be a big shift.
????So what does Gross suggest you do? Generally, Gross, unsurprisingly, likes bonds over stocks. Even though he says bonds on average may only produce 4% returns. But if you are going to buy stocks, Gross says stay away from so-called growth stocks, like say Apple (AAPL), and instead buy consistent dividend paying stocks, like Exxon Mobil (XOM). So go for safety. And he says the shares of companies located in nations with emerging economies like China and Brazil should do better than American or European stocks. Lastly, Gross recommends adding commodities to your portfolio that can protect you from inflation.
????The problem with Gross' prediction of where the market is headed is his "Great Escape" scenario doesn't sound all that different from his so-called "new normal," a phrase Gross helped coin three years to describe where the market was headed at the time. And yet, once we got past the correction of late 2008 and early 2009, being invested in the stock market has felt nothing like being in jail. Last year, was a rocky ride. But in general the market has done pretty well in this recovery, better than the economy in general. And stocks are up pretty significantly again this year. |
