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????獨(dú)立分析師與華爾街專(zhuān)業(yè)分析師都在跟蹤蘋(píng)果公司（Apple）的表現(xiàn),，而這兩者的最大區(qū)別在于，獨(dú)立分析師們更重視預(yù)測(cè)的準(zhǔn)確性,。

????恕我直言,，專(zhuān)業(yè)人士看來(lái)相當(dāng)保守，總是擔(dān)心脫離主流,、標(biāo)新立異。（請(qǐng)看鏈接1,2,3中的例子,。）

????本周末就是蘋(píng)果公布2012年第二財(cái)季財(cái)報(bào)的時(shí)間了,。所以，希望得到消息靈通人士指點(diǎn)或提前了解蘋(píng)果財(cái)報(bào)情況的投資者們最好仔細(xì)聽(tīng)聽(tīng)Asymco網(wǎng)站的賀拉斯?德迪歐的意見(jiàn),，因?yàn)樗亲詈玫莫?dú)立分析師之一,。他對(duì)蘋(píng)果的預(yù)測(cè)不僅經(jīng)常勝過(guò)專(zhuān)業(yè)分析師，而且還會(huì)清楚而詳細(xì)的解釋自己得出這些預(yù)測(cè)數(shù)字的根據(jù),。

????上周三，德迪歐在個(gè)人網(wǎng)站Asymco.com上公布了對(duì)蘋(píng)果2012年第二財(cái)季的預(yù)測(cè)，同時(shí)還在《關(guān)鍵路徑》（The Critical Path）里詳細(xì)討論了預(yù)測(cè)情況,。《關(guān)鍵路徑》是德迪歐發(fā)布在丹?本杰明的5by5 Network上的播客,，每周更新,。

????德迪歐表示，對(duì)iPhone銷(xiāo)量的預(yù)測(cè)相對(duì)比較明了,。iPhone在過(guò)去幾年一直保持著100%的年增長(zhǎng)率,。根據(jù)對(duì)蘋(píng)果資本開(kāi)支計(jì)劃的分析，以及對(duì)手機(jī)市場(chǎng)的深入理解【德迪歐曾在諾基亞（Nokia）工作過(guò)八年】,，德迪歐預(yù)測(cè),，iPhone在2012年銷(xiāo)量有望再度翻番,。

????至于iPad,，德迪歐認(rèn)為,，其銷(xiāo)量預(yù)測(cè)要困難得多,。雖然當(dāng)前的平板電腦市場(chǎng)完全是蘋(píng)果在兩年前一手打造的,，而蘋(píng)果現(xiàn)在還繼續(xù)把持著霸主地位，但這一市場(chǎng)的年增長(zhǎng)率已達(dá)到150%,。依據(jù)全新iPad在首周末的銷(xiāo)售情況,，德迪歐目前認(rèn)為這一瘋狂增速在今年仍可能會(huì)得到延續(xù)。

????對(duì)比第一代和第三代iPad的首發(fā)情況,，德迪歐指出,，后者銷(xiāo)量是前者的28倍,。不過(guò),，全新iPad的首發(fā)國(guó)家數(shù)量要多很多,，如果剔除這一因素,，這一數(shù)字則只有大約3倍。

????德迪歐預(yù)測(cè),，iPad在2012年第二財(cái)季銷(xiāo)量有望達(dá)到1,220萬(wàn)部,。這一數(shù)字比華爾街的平均預(yù)測(cè)高出120萬(wàn)部，不過(guò)這還不是最為大膽的預(yù)測(cè)。上周,，花旗集團(tuán)（Citigroup）的理查德?加德勒和投資銀行Evercore的羅伯特?希拉一致預(yù)測(cè),，iPad在第二財(cái)季銷(xiāo)量或?qū)⑦_(dá)到1,300萬(wàn)部。

????譯者：項(xiàng)航

????The chief difference between the independent analysts who follow Apple (AAPL) and their counterparts on Wall Street is that the independents put a premium on being right.

????The professionals, with all due respect, seem to care more about not over-promising or straying too far from the consensus. (See here, here and here, for example.)

????So investors who want informed guidance about what Apple is likely to announce when it reports its earnings for the second fiscal quarter of 2012, which ends next week, would do well to listen closely to Asymco's Horace Dediu, one of the best of the independents. Not only do his Apple forecasts regularly beat the professionals', but he explains how he gets his numbers clearly and in great detail.

????On Wednesday, Dediu published his Q2 2012 estimates on Asymco.com and discussed them at some length on The Critical Path, his weekly podcast on Dan Benjamin's 5by5 Network.

????Predicting how many iPhones Apple will sell, Dediu says, is relatively straightforward. Sales have been growing 100% per year, and based on his analysis of Apple's capital spending plans and his deep knowledge of the mobile phone market (he worked for Nokia for eight years), they seem poised to do it again this year.

????Predicting iPad sales is far more difficult, he explains, because contemporary tablet computers are a market that Apple created out of whole cloth two years ago. But that market -- which Apple continues to dominate -- has been growing at the rate of more than 150% per year, and based on first weekend sales of the new iPad, Dediu now believes that rate may be sustainable.

????The difference between the launch performance of the first iPad and the third, he points out, is a factor 28. Adjusted for the number of countries where each device was launched, that boils down to roughly 3 to 1.

????Dediu is calling for Q2 iPad sales of 12.2 million. That's more than 1.2 million units higher than Wall Street's current consensus, but it's hardly the biggest estimate out there. This week, Citigroup's Richard Gardner and Evercore's Robert Cihra both issued notes predicting Q2 iPad sales of 13 million.