????第二項(xiàng)金融投資是50億美元購(gòu)入美國(guó)銀行（Bank of America）優(yōu)先股,，附帶期權(quán)允許伯克希爾在2021年9月2日前以每股7.14美元的價(jià)格購(gòu)買7億股普通股。美國(guó)銀行當(dāng)前股價(jià)約8美元/股,。巴菲特對(duì)這項(xiàng)投資的評(píng)價(jià)是“我們的期權(quán)在到期前有望達(dá)到極高的價(jià)值”,。
????至于第三項(xiàng)投資，巴菲特能說(shuō)的只有抱歉,。在公開信中,，他承認(rèn)幾年前自己投資約20億美元，買入公用事業(yè)公司Energy Future Holdings（在被KKR等私有化前,，前身是TXU）的幾只高收益率債券,，完全是個(gè)錯(cuò)誤。假如這幾年天然氣價(jià)格上漲,，EFH有機(jī)會(huì)在火電廠項(xiàng)目上大賺一筆,，投資它的債券也會(huì)不賴。但事實(shí)上,，氣價(jià)急劇下降,，EFH也陷入了財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)。
????伯克希爾2010年將EFH投資減記10億美元,，2011年再次減記3.90億美元,。巴菲特并不諱言自己在這項(xiàng)投資上判斷失誤：“不管事情最終將怎樣變化，我當(dāng)初買入債券時(shí)完全算錯(cuò)了盈虧概率,。用網(wǎng)球比賽的行話來(lái)說(shuō),，這是我作為董事長(zhǎng)犯下的一個(gè)非受迫性失誤?！?/p>
????本文作者是《財(cái)富》雜志的資深特約編輯卡羅爾?盧米斯,，她是沃倫?巴菲特的老朋友，也是伯克希爾哈撒韋的股東,。她已經(jīng)連續(xù)35年義務(wù)擔(dān)任沃倫?巴菲特致股東公開信的編輯,。 |
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????A second financial investment was $5 billion of preferred stock in Bank of America (BAC) that came with warrants allowing Berkshire to buy 700 million common shares at $7.14 per share anytime before September 2, 2021. Bank of America stock is currently selling at about $8 per share. Says Buffett of this investment: "Our warrants will likely be of great value before they expire."
????Of the third Berkshire investment, Buffett has absolutely nothing good to say. In his letter, he concedes that he completely blew things a few years ago by putting around $2 billion into several high-yield bond issues of utility operation Energy Future Holdings (which in its former life, before it was taken private by KKR and others, was called TXU). Had the price of natural gas risen and given EFH an opportunity to make good money off its coal-burning plants, the company's bonds would have been golden. Instead, the price of natural gas has nosedived and turned EFH into a financial disaster.
????Berkshire wrote down its EFH investment by $1 billion in 2010 and by another $390 million in 2011. Buffett is blunt in assessing his judgment in this matter: "However things turn out, I totally miscalculated the gain/loss probabilities when I purchased the bonds. In tennis parlance, this was a major unforced error by your chairman."
????The writer of this article, FORTUNE senior editor-at-large Carol Loomis, is a longtime friend of Warren Buffett's and a shareholder of Berkshire Hathaway. She has been the pro bono editor of Buffett's annual letter to shareholders for 35 years. |
