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????如果你已經(jīng)不記得1986年庫(kù)爾特?拉塞爾主演的冒險(xiǎn)喜劇爛片《小中華里的大麻煩》（Big Trouble in Little China，又譯《妖魔大鬧唐人街》——譯注）,，沒(méi)有人會(huì)責(zé)怪你,。不過(guò)現(xiàn)在美國(guó)三大汽車廠商可能正在上演著它即將出爐的續(xù)集：《大中華里的大麻煩》。主演正是三巨頭的老板：通用汽車的丹?阿克森,、福特的艾倫?穆拉利和克萊斯勒的塞爾吉奧?馬基奧尼,。

????人們一直認(rèn)為中國(guó)很快就會(huì)成為全球最大的汽車消費(fèi)市場(chǎng)。但從最近的局勢(shì)發(fā)展來(lái)看,，這塊大蛋糕很可能會(huì)顯著縮水,，甚至就此化作泡影。徜若真是這樣,，通用（General Motors）,、福特（Ford）和克萊斯勒（Chrysler）必將遭受沉重的打擊。現(xiàn)在人們不僅在討論過(guò)熱的中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)是否會(huì)不可避免地走向冷卻,，就連中國(guó)政經(jīng)體系核心的那些復(fù)雜的社會(huì)和政治問(wèn)題,，也成了人們關(guān)注的焦點(diǎn)。以下就是中國(guó)近期出現(xiàn)的幾個(gè)危險(xiǎn)信號(hào)：

一月份中國(guó)汽車銷量顯著下降

????據(jù)LMC Automotive公司（前身為J.D. Power and Associates公司）報(bào)道,，2012年1月,，中國(guó)乘用車市場(chǎng)銷量下降了23%?！半m然之前已經(jīng)預(yù)料到市場(chǎng)會(huì)疲軟,，但這個(gè)消息還是令很多人深感震驚，因?yàn)槿藗兌颊J(rèn)為中國(guó)市場(chǎng)的強(qiáng)勁增長(zhǎng)是理所當(dāng)然的事,?！边@個(gè)消息同樣也令底特律的很多人震驚不已。比如通用汽車在中國(guó)的銷量大大超出其在美國(guó)的銷量,。雖然今年一月別克（Buick）品牌在華銷量上漲了2%,，但雪佛蘭（Chevrolet）這個(gè)通用近來(lái)正在全球各地大力推廣的品牌，銷量卻下跌了16%,。福特遭受的打擊更為沉重,，它的銷量猛跌了42%。

????雖然今年剩余月份的業(yè)績(jī)未必都會(huì)如此慘淡,，但這種趨勢(shì)還是讓人樂(lè)觀不起來(lái),。根據(jù)從13家汽車廠商匯總的銷售目標(biāo)來(lái)看，2012年中國(guó)汽車市場(chǎng)有望增長(zhǎng)13.5%,遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)低于一年前各廠商為2011年制定的20.4%的增長(zhǎng)目標(biāo),。LMC給2012年中國(guó)乘用車市場(chǎng)制定的目標(biāo)甚至更低,，只有9.2%。該公司表示：“我們相信,，市場(chǎng)在未來(lái)幾年里會(huì)回歸到一個(gè)更加有機(jī)的增長(zhǎng)途徑,。”潛臺(tái)詞就是：狂飆突進(jìn)的增長(zhǎng)時(shí)期已經(jīng)結(jié)束了,。

外資優(yōu)惠政策時(shí)代的終結(jié)

????中國(guó)政府正在取消對(duì)新開(kāi)工建設(shè)項(xiàng)目的補(bǔ)貼,，同時(shí)也提高了外國(guó)廠商在華擴(kuò)張的審批門檻，以限制外國(guó)廠商的擴(kuò)張,。中國(guó)政府曾經(jīng)給予通用和福特不少激勵(lì)政策,，比如生產(chǎn)設(shè)備可以獲得進(jìn)口關(guān)稅減免，外國(guó)廠商也可以通過(guò)建設(shè)新工廠來(lái)?yè)Q取較低的稅率等,。但這些優(yōu)惠政策已經(jīng)在1月31日到期了,。隨著增長(zhǎng)放緩，中國(guó)現(xiàn)在正著手保護(hù)苦苦掙扎的本土汽車廠商——據(jù)說(shuō)有70家之多,，而且據(jù)報(bào)道,，有些中國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)廠商2011年連一臺(tái)汽車也沒(méi)有生產(chǎn)。

????已經(jīng)在中國(guó)扎根的廠商在短期內(nèi)應(yīng)該不會(huì)受到影響,。

????福特進(jìn)入中國(guó)較晚,，但一直在全力追趕。福特正在亞太地區(qū)增加230萬(wàn)輛汽車的產(chǎn)能,，其中包括兩個(gè)新裝配工廠,、一個(gè)新發(fā)動(dòng)機(jī)工廠，并對(duì)另一個(gè)發(fā)動(dòng)機(jī)工廠進(jìn)行擴(kuò)建,，此外還有一個(gè)新的傳動(dòng)系統(tǒng)工廠它們?nèi)慷荚谥袊?guó),。目前通用汽車在中國(guó)也有全套的生產(chǎn)系統(tǒng)。政策調(diào)整后,，最大的受害者當(dāng)屬克萊斯勒,。全球知名汽車廠商中，克萊斯勒是少數(shù)幾個(gè)沒(méi)有在中國(guó)開(kāi)設(shè)工廠的廠商之一,，而現(xiàn)在克萊斯勒幾乎連補(bǔ)救的機(jī)會(huì)都沒(méi)有了,。

????分析人士早就料到中國(guó)會(huì)采取一些舉措來(lái)加強(qiáng)對(duì)外國(guó)汽車廠商的控制，但是對(duì)中國(guó)政府具體會(huì)怎樣做卻莫衷一是,。有些分析人士發(fā)現(xiàn),，中國(guó)正在加快將西方技術(shù)轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)樽杂屑夹g(shù)。的確,，通用汽車正是因?yàn)閾?dān)心技術(shù)轉(zhuǎn)移的問(wèn)題,，才沒(méi)有將破產(chǎn)的薩博（Saab）賣給一家中國(guó)廠商。其他觀察人士認(rèn)為,，中國(guó)可能會(huì)將某些設(shè)施或合資企業(yè)收歸國(guó)有,。但無(wú)論如何，中國(guó)發(fā)出的信號(hào)是明確的：我們?nèi)匀恍枰銈?，但不像過(guò)去那樣需要你們了,。

????No one can be blamed for forgetting Big Trouble in Little China, the 1986 adventure-comedy flop starring Kurt Russell. But U.S. automakers may be starring in its soon-to-be panned sequel: Big Trouble in Big China, with Dan Akerson, Alan Mulally, and Sergio Marchionne in leading roles.

????Recent developments suggest the bonanza promised by China becoming the world's largest auto market is in danger of shrinking dramatically -- or ending altogether. This could be a big blow to General Motors (GM, Fortune 500), Ford (F, Fortune 500), and Chrysler. At issue is the inevitable cooling of China's overheated economy -- but also complicated social and political problems that lie at the heart of the Chinese system. Here are just a few of the red flags:

January auto sales in China fell sharply

????LMC Automotive, the successor to J.D. Power and Associates, reports that passenger vehicle sales in China fell 23% for the first month of the year: "Although a weak market had been anticipated ... it has still come as a shock to many when solid growth has become a matter of course." That shock may include many in Detroit. GM, for instance, sells more cars in China than it does in the U.S. Sales of Buicks in China rose 2% in January, but volume for Chevrolet, a brand GM has been promoting heavily around the world, fell 16%. Ford took an even heavier beating: Its sales tumbled 42%.

????Results aren't expected to be this disturbing for the rest of the year, but the trend isn't encouraging. According to sales targets compiled from 13 manufacturers, the market is expected to grow 13.5% in 2012. That is well short of the 20.4% growth rate that was predicted by manufacturers a year ago for 2011. LMC has set an even lower target for 2012 passenger vehicles: 9.2%. "We believe the market will return to a more organic growth path in the coming years," it says. Translation: The boom years are over.

End of the government gravy train

????China is sharply curbing the expansion of foreign manufacturers by removing subsidies for new construction and making it more difficult for them to receive permits to expand. GM and Ford used to receive government incentives such as breaks on import duties for plant equipment and lower taxes in exchange for building new factories. But those deals expired on Jan. 31. With growth slowing, China is trying to protect its struggling domestic automakers, said to number about 70 -- some of whom reportedly made no cars at all in 2011.

????Automakers that already have a presence in China shouldn't be affected in the near future.

????Ford was late to the game, but it has been racing to catch up. The automaker is adding capacity for 2.3 million vehicles in the Asia Pacific region, including two new assembly plants, one new engine plant and the expansion of another one, and a new transmission plant -- all in China. Likewise, GM has a full plate in China -- for now. The biggest victim of this policy change is Chrysler. As one of a handful of global manufacturers who make nothing in China, the automaker now has even less of a chance of doing so.

????Analysts have long expected China to take steps to gain more control over foreign automakers but have differed on exactly how. Some saw the nation accelerating the transfer of Western technology to itself. Indeed, fears of technology transfer were the reason why GM blocked the sale of bankrupt Saab to a Chinese manufacturer. Other observers have expected China to simply nationalize some facilities or ventures. But in any event, the message it is sending is clear: We still want you here, but we don't need you as much as we used to.