????即使是在美國(guó),，政府強(qiáng)烈希望維持本幣穩(wěn)定，但是,，我1965年接管伯克希爾哈撒韋以來(lái),，美元也已貶值高達(dá)86%。當(dāng)年花1美元能買到的東西,，今天至少要花7美元,。因此，這些年來(lái),，一個(gè)免稅機(jī)構(gòu)須取得4.3%的債券投資年收益,，才能保持購(gòu)買力不變。假如管理層還將一切利息收入視為“收益”,，他們一定是在開玩笑,。
????對(duì)于像你我這樣的應(yīng)稅投資者，情況就更糟了,。過(guò)去的四十七里,，美國(guó)國(guó)債不斷地滾動(dòng)，年回報(bào)率5.7%,。聽起來(lái)好像還不錯(cuò),。但對(duì)于個(gè)人所得稅率平均為25%的的個(gè)人投資者而言,，這5.7%的回報(bào)率所能帶來(lái)的實(shí)際收益是零。投資者繳納的,、可見的所得稅將拿走上述回報(bào)率中的1.4個(gè)百分點(diǎn),，通脹因素這個(gè)隱形的“稅種”將吞噬其余4.3個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。值得指出的是,，盡管投資者可能認(rèn)為顯性的所得稅是主要的負(fù)擔(dān),，但其實(shí)，隱形的通脹“稅”是 所得稅的三倍還多,。沒(méi)錯(cuò),，每張美元上都印著“我們信仰上帝”這句話，但啟動(dòng)美國(guó)政府印鈔機(jī)的是凡夫俗子的手,。
????當(dāng)然,，高利率能彌補(bǔ)依托于貨幣的投資工具所帶來(lái)的通脹風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。而且,，20世紀(jì)80年代初時(shí)的利率確實(shí)很好地做到了這一點(diǎn),。不過(guò)，要抵消消費(fèi)者購(gòu)買力面臨的風(fēng)險(xiǎn),，當(dāng)前的利率水平還差得遠(yuǎn),。因此，眼下應(yīng)謹(jǐn)慎投資債券,。 |
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????Even in the U.S., where the wish for a stable currency is strong, the dollar has fallen a staggering 86% in value since 1965, when I took over management of Berkshire. It takes no less than $7 today to buy what $1 did at that time. Consequently, a tax-free institution would have needed 4.3% interest annually from bond investments over that period to simply maintain its purchasing power. Its managers would have been kidding themselves if they thought of any portion of that interest as "income."
????For taxpaying investors like you and me, the picture has been far worse. During the same 47-year period, continuous rolling of U.S. Treasury bills produced 5.7% annually. That sounds satisfactory. But if an individual investor paid personal income taxes at a rate averaging 25%, this 5.7% return would have yielded nothing in the way of real income. This investor's visible income tax would have stripped him of 1.4 points of the stated yield, and the invisible inflation tax would have devoured the remaining 4.3 points. It's noteworthy that the implicit inflation "tax" was more than triple the explicit income tax that our investor probably thought of as his main burden. "In God We Trust" may be imprinted on our currency, but the hand that activates our government's printing press has been all too human.
????High interest rates, of course, can compensate purchasers for the inflation risk they face with currency-based investments -- and indeed, rates in the early 1980s did that job nicely. Current rates, however, do not come close to offsetting the purchasing-power risk that investors assume. Right now bonds should come with a warning label. |
