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中國樓市只會降溫,，不會崩盤
作者:
Nin-Hai Tseng
時(shí)間:
2012年02月08日
來源: 財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)
位置：
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2012年，中國經(jīng)濟(jì)面臨嚴(yán)峻挑戰(zhàn),，有太多理由相信中國房價(jià)將出現(xiàn)下跌,。預(yù)計(jì)未來一年半，中國全國房價(jià)可能下跌5%至10%,；房價(jià)上漲過快的地區(qū),，預(yù)計(jì)房價(jià)下跌幅度將高達(dá)20%，但樓市絕不會崩盤,。
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????而且,，需求不只是來自不斷壯大的中產(chǎn)階層，還來自于富豪階層,。隨著中國收緊購房貸款政策,，很多投資者已轉(zhuǎn)向國外。雷小山指出,，由于中國投資者大批買入加拿大,、美國加州等地住宅，世界其他一些地區(qū)也有房地產(chǎn)泡沫形成,。
????塔夫斯大學(xué)（Tufts University）下屬全球商學(xué)院（Institute for Business in the Global Context）的常務(wù)主任巴思卡?查克勒佛提稱,，即使中國房價(jià)大跌20%，也不太可能引發(fā)災(zāi)難,，畢竟過去房價(jià)漲得太快了,。房價(jià)下跌將為那些一年前、甚至幾個(gè)月前還買不起房的人們提供了買入的機(jī)會（想想中國人數(shù)多達(dá)約3億的中產(chǎn)階層）,。
????“從根本上講,，這是一個(gè)很有深度的市場，”查克勒佛提近日在紐約出席彭博中國研討會Bloomberg Link China并在中國房地產(chǎn)市場小組討論上發(fā)言后表示,。
中國政府不會讓樓市崩盤
????中國中央政府向來善于對經(jīng)濟(jì)進(jìn)行適時(shí)的微調(diào),。政府察覺到房價(jià)上漲過快后已經(jīng)收緊了貸款政策。因此,，我們看到的房價(jià)下跌正是政府所樂于見到的,，是中國政府樓市調(diào)控方案的一部分,，目的是為樓市降溫，讓更多中國人買得起房,。
????但摩根大通指出,，問題是隨著樓市投資放緩，中國官員的樓市調(diào)控政策還會持續(xù)多久,？該行預(yù)計(jì)未來一年半,，中國全國房價(jià)可能下跌5%至10%；過去房價(jià)上漲過快的地區(qū)（該行指出,，2007-2010年間,，中國35個(gè)大城市的平均房價(jià)漲了82%），預(yù)計(jì)房價(jià)下跌幅度將高達(dá)20%,。
????“這可能會減緩中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增速，但不會導(dǎo)致硬著陸,，”摩根大通分析師們表示,。
????摩根大通去年11月的報(bào)告指出，如果要從全局來看中國的房價(jià)泡沫問題,，需要指出的是,，中國主要城市的房價(jià)增速顯著快于國內(nèi)其他地區(qū)，這一點(diǎn)很重要,。而且,，大城市在全國房地產(chǎn)市場所占的份額相對較小。舉例來說,，2011年大部分時(shí)候,，北京、上海和廣東的房地產(chǎn)投資總額只占到全國的16%,，房地產(chǎn)銷售額占比達(dá)到20%,，銷售面積占比也只有10%。
????因此,，在地區(qū)房價(jià)引發(fā)全國樓市崩盤之前,，中國政府有足夠的時(shí)間來調(diào)整政策。 |
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????The demand, however, isn't just coming from the growing middle class but also the very rich. With tighter lending rules placed on Chinese buyers at home, many investors have gone abroad. Rein points to the formation of property bubbles in other parts of the world, as Chinese investors buy up homes in places such as Canada and California.
????Even if home prices fall by 20% in China, it's unlikely that would spell disaster given that prices had surged so rapidly, says Bhaskar Chakravorti, executive director of Tufts University's Institute for Business in the Global Context. Lower prices would offer an opening to those who couldn't afford to buy a year or a few months ago (think about the 300 million middle class Chinese).
????"Fundamentally, it's a deep market," says Chakravorti, after speaking recently on a panel about China's property market at the Bloomberg Link China conference in New York City.
The government won't let prices crash
????China's central government has been known to tweak its economy as it goes. When officials saw property prices rising too rapidly for its tastes, it tightened lending rules. So the declines we have seen are welcome and are part of the government's plans to cool down its hot real estate market, making it more affordable for more Chinese to buy property.
????The tricky part is in knowing how long officials adjust housing policies as the real estate market slows, according to JP Morgan. The bank adds that over the next year and a half, prices could fall 5% to 10% at the national level. At the regional level, where prices have risen much more rapidly ((it notes prices surged an average of 82% between 2007 to 2010 in 35 major Chinese cities), prices are expected to fall by 20%.
????"This will likely slow the pace of economic growth but not lead to a hard landing," say JP Morgan's analysts.
????To put China's property bubble in context, it's important to note that prices in major cities have risen much faster than the rest of the country, according to JP Morgan's November report. And major cities make up a relatively small portion of the national housing market. For instance, Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangdong's markets combined account for 16% of total real estate investment, 20% of the buildings sold (in value), and 10% of the floor space sold for the majority of 2011.
????So before home prices at the regional level trigger a national market crash, the Chinese government should have enough time to change its game. |
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