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????摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）看到了中國(guó)市場(chǎng)的光明前景：衣著考究的中國(guó)男女人手一部iPhone。

????凱蒂?休伯蒂在周日致客戶的一份報(bào)告中援引摩根士丹利的AlphaWise調(diào)查,，描繪了蘋(píng)果（Apple）不負(fù)眾望,，最終與中國(guó)移動(dòng)（China Mobile）和中國(guó)電信（China Telecom）達(dá)成交易后，中國(guó)大陸智能手機(jī)市場(chǎng)的“錢(qián)途”,。AlphaWise的調(diào)查反映了中國(guó)迅速壯大的中產(chǎn)階層的購(gòu)買(mǎi)模式,。

????休伯蒂的觀點(diǎn)如下：

????? 目前中國(guó)大約有1.5億高端移動(dòng)用戶，其每月話費(fèi)至少為100人民幣（16美元）,。

????? 目前,，蘋(píng)果在中國(guó)的唯一官方運(yùn)營(yíng)商、中國(guó)聯(lián)通（China Unicom）擁有1,500萬(wàn)高端用戶,，約占中國(guó)高端用戶總數(shù)的十分之一,。

???? 今年年底或明年初，蘋(píng)果將開(kāi)始通過(guò)中國(guó)移動(dòng)（擁有1.2億高端用戶）和中國(guó)電信（擁有1,500萬(wàn)高端用戶）銷(xiāo)售新一代iPhone。

????? 五分之一的中國(guó)聯(lián)通高端用戶購(gòu)買(mǎi)了iPhone,，而其它兩家運(yùn)營(yíng)商的用戶預(yù)計(jì)也會(huì)步他們的后塵,。（8%的中國(guó)移動(dòng)高端用戶已經(jīng)在使用iPhone，雖然他們僅僅只能使用2G業(yè)務(wù),。）

????? 假設(shè)市場(chǎng)滲透率為20%,，那么到2013年，蘋(píng)果至少能多賣(mài)出2,400萬(wàn)部iPhone,，使該公司的每股收益增長(zhǎng)6.5美元,。

????? 隨著iPhone日益流行和（中國(guó)）中產(chǎn)階級(jí)隊(duì)伍的不斷壯大，到明年,，蘋(píng)果iPhone的銷(xiāo)售增量有望繼續(xù)上升,，達(dá)到近4,000萬(wàn)部，為其每股收益再添磚加瓦10美元,。

????Morgan Stanley has seen the future and it's a well-heeled Chinese man (or woman) with an iPhone.

????In a note to clients Sunday, Katy Huberty drew on Morgan Stanley's proprietary AlphaWise survey of buying patterns among China's rapidly growing middle class to paint a picture of the smartphone market on the mainland after Apple (AAPL), as widely expected, finally signs deals with China Mobile (CHL) and China Telecom (CHA).

????She assumes:

????? That there are roughly 150 million high-end subscribers in China currently paying at least RMB 100 ($16) per month for mobile phone service.

????? That China Unicom (CHU), currently Apple's only official carrier, has 15 million of those subscribers, or roughly 10%.

????? That late this year or early next, Apple will begin selling next-generation iPhones through China Mobile (120 million high-end subscribers) and China Telecom (15 million).

????? That because 20% of China Unicom's high-end subscribers buy iPhones, the other two carriers' subscribers will follow suit. (8% China Mobile's high-end customers already use iPhones, even though they get only 2G service.)

????? Assuming 20% penetration, Apple should see, at a minimum, 24 million addition iPhone sales in 2013, adding $6.5o per share to the company's bottom line.

????? As the iPhone catches on and the middle class expands, that number could grow to nearly 40 million next year, adding $10 to Apple's earnings per share.