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????航空公司通過控制成本和尋求額外收入來賺錢,。最近,，收取包裹費(fèi)、餐飲費(fèi),、座位選擇費(fèi)甚至是電話訂票費(fèi)幫助很多航空公司維持了盈利,。這些費(fèi)用在整個(gè)民航系統(tǒng)中都有觸及，看起來與并購狂潮也沒什么關(guān)聯(lián),。

????公平地講,，并購行動(dòng)剛完成時(shí)確實(shí)可以帶來一些好處。合并總部及削減管理成本的確對(duì)最終保留下來的民航公司起到作用,，不過,，效果可能有限,。例如，一位熟悉美聯(lián)航事務(wù)的人士向《財(cái)富》雜志（Fortune）透露,，為了吸引大陸航空的雇員從休斯敦搬到芝加哥,，美聯(lián)航被迫為其加薪20-30%. 就算考慮稅收減免的問題，將總部留在這樣一個(gè)成本高昂的城市,，理由也相當(dāng)奇怪,，這表明民航界的并購并不總是理性的。

????美國航空與美聯(lián)航合并的話,，顯得尤其不合理,。由于美聯(lián)航以匹茲堡、夏洛特,、費(fèi)城和鳳凰城等地為樞紐運(yùn)作,，其國際化努力頂多可說是邊緣性的。美國航空的網(wǎng)絡(luò)要發(fā)達(dá)得多,，其債權(quán)人也明白這一點(diǎn),，因此，美聯(lián)航要想完成任何交易,，都必須提供大量現(xiàn)金作為甜頭,，而它并沒有這種財(cái)力。

????從表面上看,，與達(dá)美合作要合理得多,，可仍然有一些重大障礙，可能導(dǎo)致交易失敗,。首先,，由于兩家公司在65個(gè)美國國內(nèi)城市航班中有重疊，這將引發(fā)反壟斷問題,，而美聯(lián)航與大陸航空提出合并時(shí),，雙方只有14個(gè)重疊的國內(nèi)直達(dá)航班，達(dá)美與西北航空合并時(shí)更是只有12個(gè)重疊航班,。這是個(gè)重大問題,，因?yàn)榉磯艛啾O(jiān)管部門傾向于重點(diǎn)分析各航班的市場(chǎng)占有率，而不是整體情況,。

????國際航線方面,，達(dá)美與美國航空分別隸屬天合聯(lián)盟（Sky Team）及寰宇一家（One World）這兩大國際飛行常客聯(lián)盟,，而且是各自聯(lián)盟在美國的支柱,，它們之間的合并將使謹(jǐn)慎追求平衡的聯(lián)盟系統(tǒng)遭到挑戰(zhàn)。如果一家放棄原有聯(lián)盟，轉(zhuǎn)投另一家,，將會(huì)嚴(yán)重打擊客流量,。

????此外，兩家公司與其各自聯(lián)盟的歐洲主航空公司之間的聯(lián)系超越了通常的伙伴關(guān)系,，因?yàn)閮烧叨荚诖笪餮蟊税东@得了反壟斷豁免,。美國航空實(shí)際上可以合法地與英國航空（British Airways）就利潤頗豐的紐約至倫敦航班合謀，而達(dá)美可以合法地與法航荷航集團(tuán)（Air France/KLM）就同樣利潤可觀的紐約至巴黎航班協(xié)同,。合并之后這些協(xié)議是否仍然有效,？目前還不得而知。

????歸根結(jié)底,，決定美國航空命運(yùn)的是其債權(quán)人,。無擔(dān)保債權(quán)人委員會(huì)的九名成員中，三名屬于工會(huì),，如果管理層降低勞動(dòng)力成本幅度太大,，工會(huì)很可能加以反對(duì)?？墒?，考慮到達(dá)美和美聯(lián)航的成本結(jié)構(gòu)更低,，合并很可能也無法解決他們?cè)诮?jīng)濟(jì)利益問題上的憂慮,。

????美國航空申請(qǐng)破產(chǎn)保護(hù)之時(shí)，銀行戶頭上還有40億美元現(xiàn)金,，使其有充裕的時(shí)間來權(quán)衡所有選項(xiàng),。目前，管理層有120天時(shí)間來向法院提交重組計(jì)劃,，法院還可以將該期限額外延長18個(gè)月,。因此，就算將來有任何交易,，那也還是很遙遠(yuǎn)的事情,。最大的可能性是，美國航空浴火重生,，維持獨(dú)立航空公司的地位,，同時(shí)資產(chǎn)負(fù)債狀況也會(huì)顯著改善。一旦理清頭緒,，美國航空或許還能召集銀行家來按照自己的條件做筆交易,。

????譯者：小宇

????Airlines have made money by controlling their costs and seeking additional revenue. Fees for bags, food, seat assignments and even for the cost of calling to book a ticket have helped keep many airlines in the black recently. Those fees have been instituted throughout the airline system and seem to have little to do with the consolidation craze.

????To be fair, there are some initial benefits to combining operations. Merging headquarters and slashing management costs does help the surviving airline, although it can be limited. For example, United has had to hike the pay of Continental employees by 20% to 30% to entice them to move up to Chicago from Houston, a person close to the company told Fortune. The bizarre reason to remain headquartered in such an expensive city, even with tax breaks, shows that airline mergers aren't always rational.

????An American combination with US Airways seems to be an especially irrational choice. Its attempts to grow its international business have been marginal at best as it operates from hubs like Pittsburgh, Charlotte, Philadelphia and Phoenix. American's network is far superior and its creditors know that. US Airways would therefore need to offer a lot of cash to sweeten any deal, something it doesn't have.

????A pairing with Delta on the surface seems like a more rational choice, but there are a few major obstacles that sour the deal. First, the merger could create an antitrust issue as the two overlap in 65 nonstop domestic city-pairs. United Airlines and Continental only shared 14 domestic city-pairs when they proposed their merger, while Delta and Northwest shared even less at 12 city-pairs. That's important as antitrust regulators tend to look at city-pair concentration as opposed to overall market concentration.

????On the international front, a Delta-American deal would upset the carefully balanced frequent flyer alliance system, since they are both the U.S. anchors for their respective alliances, Sky Team and One World. If one leaves to join the other it could be a big hit to passenger volume.

????And the connections that the two have with their respective European frequent flyer anchor airlines go beyond the typical partner arrangement as both have attained antitrust immunity over the Atlantic. American is effectively able to legally collude with British Airways on the lucrative New York to London route, while Delta is able to legally collude with Air France/KLM on the equally lucrative New York to Paris route. It's unclear if those contracts would continue after a merger.

????In the end it will be American's creditors that will decide the company's fate. Of the nine members on the unsecured creditors committee, three belong to labor unions. The unions will likely move against management of they cut too much. But given that the cost structures at Delta and US Airways are lower, it seems unlikely that a merger would solve their money worries.

????American's decision to go bankrupt with $4 billion in cash in the bank has given it enough time to weigh all its options. For now, management has 120 days to present a plan of reorganization to the court. A judge could extend that period out by an additional 18 months, so a deal, if any, is still a ways away. American will most likely emerge as an independent airline with a much stronger balance sheet. Once all cleaned up, it may be American calling the bankers to do a deal on their terms.