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????鯊魚們已經(jīng)開始圍著美國航空（American Airlines）打轉(zhuǎn),，但各位不必期待會(huì)有什么結(jié)果——至少短期內(nèi)不會(huì)。當(dāng)前的形勢(shì)下,，美國航空不論是與達(dá)美航空（Delta Air Lines）還是與全美航空（US Airways）合并,，不僅缺乏戰(zhàn)略意義，還可能給所有卷入的公司都帶來巨大的麻煩,。同時(shí),，美國航空也并不需要來自德太投資（TPG）或其他私募股權(quán)公司注資來走出破產(chǎn)困境尚。

????美國航空于去年11月申請(qǐng)了破產(chǎn)保護(hù),，以其為主角的各種傳言紛紛開始涌現(xiàn)——這只是時(shí)間問題。據(jù)報(bào)道,，達(dá)美航空已經(jīng)聘請(qǐng)了黑石集團(tuán)（Blackstone Group）研究交易的可能性,，而全美航空也聘請(qǐng)巴克萊（Barclays）銀行從事同樣的工作。同時(shí),，總部位于達(dá)拉斯的私募股權(quán)公司德太投資顯然也在考慮將該航空公司私有化或分拆的可能性,。

????美國航空母公司AMR的新任首席執(zhí)行官湯姆?霍頓去年12月曾警告員工，稱可能會(huì)出現(xiàn)“機(jī)會(huì)主義者”,，威脅公司重組的努力,。這番嚴(yán)厲的辭令乃是為了向市場(chǎng)發(fā)出明確信息：我們打算獨(dú)自完成重組工作。至此以后,，還沒發(fā)生什么可能促使霍頓改變主意的事情,，恐怕需要重大的變故才會(huì)出現(xiàn)這種情況。

????交易背后的理由本身也值得懷疑,，媒體舉出的最大理由是：美國航空不知怎的“錯(cuò)過了”過去十年左右民航界格局的并購狂潮,，如果這家公司想要實(shí)現(xiàn)盈利的話，必須擴(kuò)大規(guī)模,。這當(dāng)然完全站不住腳,。事實(shí)上，正是美國航空2011年收購環(huán)球航空公司（TWA）的交易引爆了這一輪并購風(fēng)潮,。這宗收購造就了當(dāng)時(shí)全球最大的航空公司,，直到2008年達(dá)美與西北航空（Northwest Airlines）合并及2010年美聯(lián)航（United Airlines）與大陸航空（Continental Airlines）合并后，美國航空才失去了這個(gè)地位,。

????美國航空之所以沒有再進(jìn)行其他并購,，是因?yàn)槠湟?guī)模已經(jīng)足夠龐大。事實(shí)上,，過去十年來該公司多數(shù)時(shí)間都在削減運(yùn)力,，以求提高脆弱的利潤率。

????實(shí)際上,，美國航空正是因?yàn)榇蝽懥嗣窈讲①彂?zhàn)的第一槍才吃盡了苦頭,。美國航空的對(duì)手在并購時(shí)都嘗到了節(jié)約成本的甜頭,，而美國航空卻未能獲得這樣的好處，在勞動(dòng)和飛機(jī)租賃合同方面的問題尤其嚴(yán)重,。與競爭對(duì)手達(dá)美和美聯(lián)航不同,，美國航空收購環(huán)球航空之前，并未通過破產(chǎn)保護(hù)重組成本結(jié)構(gòu),，意味著該公司成本高昂的勞動(dòng)合同仍然有效,，甚至還拓展到了覆蓋環(huán)球航空的全部員工。此外,，美國航空也未能就其他高價(jià)合同——比如價(jià)格過高的飛機(jī)租賃合同——重新談判,，結(jié)果被迫繼續(xù)為相對(duì)較老且油耗更高的機(jī)型買單。

????分析人士和媒體描繪了一幅美好的畫卷,，仿佛只要美國航空與規(guī)模更大的達(dá)美或稍小的美聯(lián)航合并,，利益就會(huì)滾滾而來?？墒?，他們恰恰弄反了。美國航空只有通過破產(chǎn)保護(hù)程序削減成本,，而不是進(jìn)行并購,，才能得到這些好處。沒有證據(jù)表明民航公司的并購確實(shí)能夠提高營收,，事實(shí)上,，排除通貨膨脹因素影響后，現(xiàn)在機(jī)票價(jià)格反而比2001年便宜了20%. 這意味著,，民航公司通過并購行動(dòng)顯著增長營收的嘗試已經(jīng)歸于失敗,。

????The sharks have started to circle American Airlines, but don't expect anything to come of it -- at least in the near term. A tie up involving American with either Delta Air Lines or US Airways makes little strategic sense at this point and would end up creating major headaches for all the parties involved. Meanwhile, a cash infusion from either TPG or another private equity firm isn't needed for the airline to work its way through bankruptcy.

????It was just a matter of time before rumors would start about American Airlines being in play following its trip to the bankruptcy court in November. Delta has reportedly hired the Blackstone Group (BX) to look into a possible deal while US Airways (LCC) has hired Barclays (BCS) to do the same. Dallas-based private equity firm TPG is also apparently looking into the possibility of taking the airline private or splitting it up.

????Tom Horton, AMR's new chief executive, warned employees in December that there would be "opportunists" who would threaten to destabilize the airline's attempt at reorganization. Such harsh language was meant to send a clear message to the markets: we are going to do this alone. Nothing has changed so far to alter Horton's thinking and it would probably take a lot to do so.

????The rationale behind the deal talk is itself questionable. The biggest one touted in the media was that American somehow "missed out" on the airline merger mania over the last decade or so and that they need to be bigger if they ever want to be profitable. This, of course, is a total fallacy. American actually set off the consolidation craze by acquiring rival TWA in 2001. This merger created what was the largest airline in the world until Delta merged with Northwest Airlines in 2008 and United Airlines merged with Continental Airlines in 2010.

????American chose to stay out of the other mergers because it was already big enough. In fact, it has spent much of the last decade paring down its capacity in order to boost its fledgling profit margins.

????In fact, American has suffered because it was the first mover in the airline consolidation game. It did not attain the cost savings its rivals received when pairing up, especially when it came to labor and lease agreements. Unlike rivals Delta (DAL) and United (UAL), American acquired TWA before it was able to reorganize its cost structure in bankruptcy. That meant that American's expensive labor contracts remained intact and were then extended to all TWA employees. The airline wasn't able to renegotiate other high-priced contracts like its expensive airline leases. It was stuck paying off planes that were older and less fuel efficient.

????Analysts and the media paint a picture of merger bliss if American would just pair up with larger rival Delta or smaller rival US Airways. But they seem to have it backwards. The bliss will come when American slashes its costs in bankruptcy, not if it merges. There is no evidence that airline mergers actually enhance revenue. In fact, airline travel is actually 20% less expensive than it was in 2001, after adjusting for inflation. That means that airlines have failed in their attempt to achieve any meaningful top-line growth by combining operations.