????過去幾年，我們的很多關(guān)鍵投資主題和宏觀資產(chǎn)配置一直與美元走向息息相關(guān),。涉及到大宗商品,，向來是美元漲，大宗商品就跌,。但最近,，石油與美元的這種關(guān)聯(lián)卻被打破了，布倫特原油價(jià)格和美元都在上漲,。
????鑒于近期伊朗在霍爾木茲海峽問題上的強(qiáng)硬言辭,，油價(jià)的強(qiáng)勢(shì)并非完全出乎意料。去年12月份,，伊朗威脅稱，如果遭到石油禁運(yùn)制裁,，伊朗將封閉霍爾木茲海峽,。這項(xiàng)聲明發(fā)布后，伊朗舉行了為期十天的一系列海軍演習(xí),，地點(diǎn)就在霍爾木茲海峽的東部水域,。
????上周四,，又傳來一條對(duì)伊朗石油出口不利的消息。日本政府在與美國(guó)財(cái)長(zhǎng)蒂姆?蓋特納會(huì)晤后表示,，日本打算減少伊朗石油進(jìn)口,，伊朗石油現(xiàn)占日本總進(jìn)口量的10%左右。日本是伊朗石油第二大進(jìn)口國(guó),，約占伊朗總出口量的17%,，僅次于中國(guó)（20%）。而中國(guó)一直不愿減少伊朗石油進(jìn)口,，雖然中國(guó)總理溫家寶上周末首次訪問沙特阿拉伯,，可能被視為是對(duì)伊朗的冒犯。
????霍爾木茲海峽的戰(zhàn)略重要性在于,，全球有超過1/5的石油運(yùn)輸都要經(jīng)過這里,。從波斯灣運(yùn)出的石油要先通過這個(gè)最窄處僅34英里的霍爾木茲海峽，然后才能進(jìn)入阿拉伯海,。每天有約14艘油輪裝載1,550萬(wàn)桶原油穿過這個(gè)海峽,。
????美國(guó)參謀長(zhǎng)聯(lián)席會(huì)議主席馬丁?登普西將軍1月8日在（哥倫比亞廣播公司）《面對(duì)全國(guó)》（Face the Nation）的電視節(jié)目中，非常明確地表示,，如果伊朗試圖封鎖霍爾木茲海峽,，美國(guó)將積極采取行動(dòng)。他說：“他們有能力將霍爾木茲海峽封鎖一段時(shí)間,，我們有能力確保,，一旦發(fā)生這種情況，我們就能挫敗這種企圖,?！?/p>
????美國(guó)國(guó)防部長(zhǎng)里昂?帕內(nèi)塔也做了類似表態(tài)，并指出,，伊朗建造核武器的努力將跨越美國(guó)的“紅線”,，這意味著美國(guó)可能會(huì)“實(shí)施報(bào)復(fù)”。
????談到核武器問題,，據(jù)伊朗官方日?qǐng)?bào)《世界報(bào)》（Kayhan）的報(bào)道,，伊朗已開始在福爾多鈾濃縮廠生產(chǎn)濃縮鈾。福爾多核設(shè)施依山而建,，臨近德黑蘭南邊的穆斯林圣城庫(kù)姆,。（具有諷刺意味的是，福爾多據(jù)信也是兩伊戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)期間死傷人數(shù)最多的地點(diǎn),。）2009年,，福爾多核設(shè)施曝光，此后一直是爭(zhēng)論的焦點(diǎn),，因?yàn)閺?fù)發(fā)確定伊朗到底是在朝著發(fā)展核武器的道路前行,，還是僅僅為了獲取能源而進(jìn)行鈾濃縮,。
????美國(guó)國(guó)防部長(zhǎng)和美國(guó)聯(lián)席參謀長(zhǎng)會(huì)議主席上周末在（全國(guó)廣播公司）《會(huì)見新聞界》（Meet the Press）節(jié)目中措辭強(qiáng)硬。無獨(dú)有偶,，美國(guó)外交關(guān)系協(xié)會(huì)（Council on Foreign Relations）的刊物《外交事務(wù)》（Foreign Affairs）也刊登了美國(guó)國(guó)防部前防務(wù)規(guī)劃員馬修?克羅尼格的文章《進(jìn)攻伊朗的時(shí)機(jī)到了》（Time to Attack Iran）,。他的結(jié)論簡(jiǎn)單來講就是，除了進(jìn)攻,，美國(guó)別無選擇,，而時(shí)機(jī)就是現(xiàn)在。 |
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????Many of our key investment themes and macro asset allocations over the past couple of years have been related to the direction of the U.S. dollar. As it relates to commodities, the trend has been dollar up, commodities down. Recently that correlation has weakened with oil, as both Brent crude and the U.S. dollar have moved in the same direction.
????Given the recent rhetoric from Iran related to the Strait of Hormuz, the strength in the price of oil is not totally surprising. In December, Iran threatened to shut the Strait of Hormuz if sanctions were imposed on its oil exports. Subsequent to that announcement, Iran held a series of naval maneuvers over a period of ten days, just east of the strait.
????On Thursday, the latest gauntlet was thrown down over Iranian oil. After meetings with U.S. Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner, the Japanese indicated that they intend to reduce their imports of Iranian oil, which stand at roughly 10% of their total imports. Behind China at 20%, Japan is the second-largest importer of Iranian oil at approximately 17% of total Iranian exports. China, on the other hand, has been reluctant to cut its use of Iranian oil, though Premier Wen Jiabao is making his first trip to Saudi Arabia this weekend, which can be seen as an affront to Iran.
????The strategic relevance of the Strait of Hormuz is that more than one-fifth of the world's oil is transported through it. As oil is transported out of the Persian Gulf it passes through the Strait of Hormuz, which is 34 miles wide at its narrowest, before crossing in the Arabian Sea. Every day, about 14 tankers carrying 15.5 million barrels of crude oil pass through the strait.
????On Face the Nation this past Sunday, Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman General Martin Dempsey was very specific in stating that the U.S. was prepared to act aggressively should Iran attempt to block the strait. "They've invested in capabilities that could, in fact, for a period of time block the Strait of Hormuz," he said. "We've invested in capabilities that ensure if that happens, we can defeat that."
????Defense Secretary Leon Panetta echoed these comments and also indicated that efforts by Iran to build a nuclear weapon would also constitute a "red line," which implies potential the need for U.S. retaliation.
????On the subject of nuclear weapons, according to the Iranian newspaper Kayhan, Iran has started to enrich uranium at its Fordo production facility. The Fordo plant is built into the side of a mountain near Qom, a Muslim holy city, which is located just south of Tehran. (Ironically, the Fordo location is also believed to be the site of the largest number of fatalities in the Iran-Iraq war.) This site was disclosed in 2009 and has been at the epicenter of the debate over whether Iran is on the path to nuclear weapons, or merely using this enrichment for energy purposes.
????Coincident with the strong language voice this weekend on "Meet the Press" by the Secretary of Defense and the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the Council on Foreign Relations publication, Foreign Affairs, featured an article by former Pentagon defense planner Matthew Kroenig titled, "Time to Attack Iran." His conclusion is simply that the U.S. has little choice but to attack, and the time to do so is now. |
