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????7、投資者擔(dān)憂發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家貨幣供應(yīng)迅速增長(zhǎng),，合理管理本國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的國(guó)家,，貨幣將受到投資者的追捧。北歐貨幣,、澳元,、新加坡元和韓元將從中受益。

????8,、美國(guó)國(guó)會(huì)認(rèn)識(shí)到其職能紊亂對(duì)兩黨都不利,，并決定在11月總統(tǒng)選舉之前處理國(guó)會(huì)削減赤字聯(lián)席選擇委員會(huì)的問(wèn)題。這個(gè)委員會(huì)未能拿出方案,，在10年內(nèi)將美國(guó)預(yù)算赤字減少12,000萬(wàn)億美元,。國(guó)防和醫(yī)療預(yù)算大幅削減。農(nóng)業(yè)補(bǔ)貼減少,，針對(duì)石油,、天然氣和房地產(chǎn)合伙公司的減稅有所調(diào)整。奧巴馬承諾,，如若連任,，將繼續(xù)執(zhí)行布什減稅計(jì)劃的若干條款。

????9,、阿拉伯國(guó)家的春天終于來(lái)臨，阿薩德及其家族對(duì)敘利亞的統(tǒng)治終結(jié),。阿薩德政權(quán)倒臺(tái)不可避免,，在整個(gè)地區(qū)產(chǎn)生重要的連鎖反應(yīng)，削弱了哈馬斯和赫茲布拉派的勢(shì)力,，并進(jìn)一步孤立伊朗,。

????10,、新興市場(chǎng)股市在兩年的慘淡之后終于迎來(lái)了春天，經(jīng)濟(jì)增速接近10%,。雖然增長(zhǎng)稍稍趨緩,，但是積極的評(píng)估將使得中國(guó)、印度和巴西的指數(shù)增長(zhǎng)15-20%,。

????如下幾項(xiàng)未入選2012年十大預(yù)測(cè)之列,，主要是因?yàn)槲艺J(rèn)為其發(fā)生概率不到50%，或者其重要程度不如我最終選定的十項(xiàng)預(yù)測(cè),。

????11,、房市強(qiáng)勢(shì)反彈。經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)力與高購(gòu)買力這兩項(xiàng)因素共同促使消費(fèi)者回歸房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng),，并進(jìn)行長(zhǎng)期投資,。過(guò)剩的空置房屋將逐步得到消化。

????12. 十年期美國(guó)國(guó)庫(kù)券收益率提高到4%,，因?yàn)橹袊?guó)會(huì)持續(xù)在硬資產(chǎn)和原材料方面大量投資,，而不再大量將外匯儲(chǔ)備用于購(gòu)買發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家的債券。

????13. 金價(jià)在2011年底調(diào)整之后,，在2012年反彈至1,800美元/盎司,。發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家進(jìn)行的貨幣政策調(diào)整使得個(gè)人投資者和主權(quán)財(cái)富基金重新向硬資產(chǎn)方面傾斜。銀價(jià)也從中受益,，價(jià)格升至40美元/盎司,。

????14、國(guó)家和地方層面的財(cái)政紀(jì)律使得市政債券收益仍會(huì)繼續(xù)下降,。

????拜倫?維恩現(xiàn)任黑石顧問(wèn)合伙人公司副董事長(zhǎng),，曾任摩根斯坦利首席美國(guó)投資戰(zhàn)略家。

????譯者：李玫曉/汪皓

????7. Concerned over rapid money supply growth in the developed world, investors buy the currencies of countries that seem to be managing their economies sensibly. Scandinavian currencies, the Australian and Singapore dollar and the Korean won benefit.

????8. Congress decides its dysfunctionality is harmful to both parties and acts before the November election to deal with the failure of the Super Committee to develop a program to reduce the U.S. budget deficit by $1.2 trillion over ten years. Both defense and Medicare are cut significantly; subsidies for agriculture are reduced and tax deductions for oil, gas and real estate partnerships are modified. Obama pledges to let some aspects of the Bush tax cut program continue if he is reelected.

????9. The Arab Spring finally overcomes Bashar al-Assad and his family's rule over Syria ends. While Assad's fall might have been inevitable, it has important ripple effects throughout the region weakening Hamas, Hezbollah and further isolating Iran.

????10. After two years of poor stock market performance while their economies came through with high single-digit real growth the emerging markets finally have a good year. Growth slows somewhat but favorable valuations enable China, India and Brazil indexes to appreciate 15-20%.

????Below are several "also rans" which did not make the Ten Surprises list because (a) I did not think they had a more than 50% probability of happening and/or (b) they were not as important to investors as the ten I ultimately chose:

????11. Housing starts to pick up significantly. The strength in the economy coupled with record affordability encourages the consumer to come back into the market and make long term commitments. The overhang of vacant homes begins to be absorbed.

????12. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note rises to 4% as China continues to invest heavily in hard assets and raw materials and pulls back from putting reserves into the bonds of developed nations.

????13. After correcting sharply toward the end of 2011 gold rebounds to $1800 during the year. Accommodative monetary policies throughout the developed world cause a renewed migration to hard assets by individual investors and sovereign wealth funds. Silver benefits also, rising to $40.

????14. Fiscal discipline at the state and local level allows the drop in yields for municipal bonds to continue.

????Byron Wien is vice chairman of Blackstone Advisory Partners, and is the former chief U.S> investment strategist for Morgan Stanley.