????近三個(gè)月來每周的財(cái)經(jīng)報(bào)紙新聞標(biāo)題都是歐元區(qū)正處于災(zāi)難的邊緣。迄今為止,，這場(chǎng)危機(jī)中倒下的犧牲品已經(jīng)囊括了意大利總理,、希臘總統(tǒng)、法比銀行Dexia和最近的美國(guó)證券經(jīng)紀(jì)公司明富環(huán)球金融（MF Global）,。雖然上周有多國(guó)央行聯(lián)手釋放流動(dòng)性,，但一些分析師仍認(rèn)為歐元難逃消亡命運(yùn)。標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾（Standard and Poor's）將歐元區(qū)15國(guó)列入負(fù)面觀察名單,，更是雪上加霜,。
????整場(chǎng)危機(jī)中最令人意外的是危機(jī)并沒有導(dǎo)致歐元對(duì)美元和英鎊的匯率大幅下跌；美國(guó)和英國(guó)是歐元區(qū)最緊密的伙伴國(guó),。11月21日，瑞士信貸（Credit Suisse）的研究報(bào)告稱,，就我們目前掌握的情況來看,，歐元“已經(jīng)來日無多”。但是,，目前歐元兌美元匯率為1.34美元,，同2007年的水平大致相當(dāng)，離今年年初的水平也不遠(yuǎn),。
????對(duì)于歐元的相對(duì)堅(jiān)挺,，有多種解釋。最顯而易見的是缺乏好的替代性選擇,。美國(guó)利率接近零,，使得美元投資無利可圖，因此,，大型退休基金和其他必須分散投資的儲(chǔ)備基金不能將所有的資產(chǎn)置于美元投資,。而且,，美國(guó)和英國(guó)政府也有各自的債務(wù)問題，導(dǎo)致投資者保持了適度的謹(jǐn)慎,。
????與此同時(shí),，瑞士和日本政府入市干預(yù)瑞郎和日元上漲的行動(dòng)也使得這兩種貨幣退出了這場(chǎng)交易游戲。一位外匯交易員稱：“目前,，歐元區(qū)仍然是投資者能夠獲取收益的一個(gè)主權(quán)債務(wù)市場(chǎng),，這些投資推高了歐元?！?/p>
????另一種理論是,，投資者只是將大部分歐元投資轉(zhuǎn)移到該地區(qū)財(cái)政狀況良好的國(guó)家，如德國(guó)和荷蘭,，還未將大量資金從歐元轉(zhuǎn)出,。上周，由于有傳言稱歐元即將崩解,，驚恐的投資者將資金投到他們認(rèn)為最安全的避風(fēng)港,，德國(guó)一年期債券收益率有史以來首現(xiàn)負(fù)值。
????中國(guó)對(duì)歐元匯率保持相對(duì)堅(jiān)挺也起了一定作用,。美元在中國(guó)外匯儲(chǔ)備中的占比一直很高,，為降低畸高的美元敞口風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，一段時(shí)間以來中國(guó)一直在努力將這些投資轉(zhuǎn)換為有機(jī)會(huì)染指的任何其他資產(chǎn),。渣打銀行（Standard Chartered）的研究顯示,，2011年以來中國(guó)一直在努力將新增的外匯儲(chǔ)備從美元轉(zhuǎn)換為歐元。 |
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????Every week for the past three months, headlines in financial newspapers have announced that the eurozone is on the brink of disaster. The casualties, thus far, include the leaders of Italy and Greece; Dexia, the French-Belgian bank, and most recently MF Global, the American brokerage. Despite last week's coordinated actions by central banks to free up transatlantic capital, some analysts still forecast a calamitous outcome. Standard and Poor's move to put 15 eurozone countries on notice for a possible debt downgrade doesn't help.
????Perhaps the most surprising aspect of the crisis is the fact that it has not prompted the euro, the currency that holds the continent together, to fall significantly against the U.S. dollar and British pound, its closest international counterparts. On November 21, research from Credit Suisse said that the euro is entering "its last days as we currently know it." Yet the euro currently trades at $1.34 against the dollar, which is roughly where it was trading in 2007, and not far off from where it was at the beginning of this year.
????There are several explanations for this resilience. The most obvious is a lack of good alternatives to the euro. Near-zero interest rates in the U.S. make dollar investments unprofitable, so large pension funds and other reserve funds that must diversify their portfolio can't put all their assets in dollar-denominated investments. The American and British governments have their own debt problems, too, and this has kept investors duly wary.
????Meanwhile, interventions by the Swiss and Japanese governments to prevent the franc and yen from rising have taken those respective currencies out of the trading game. "The eurozone is one part of the sovereign debt market where investors can still get yield," says one FX trader, "and these investments are propping up the currency."
????Another theory is that investors are merely shifting most euro investments to the region's fiscally healthiest countries, like Germany and the Netherlands, but haven't on balance moved much money out of the euro. Last week, German one-year bond yields turned negative for the first time on record, as panicked investors put their money in what they perceived as the safest haven, amid rumors that the euro was about the unravel.
????China may also be playing a part in the resilience of the euro. Concerned about its disproportionate dollar holdings, Beijing for some time has tried to diversify into whatever other asset classes it can get its hands on. Research from Standard Chartered says that during 2011, China has been attempting to shift its accumulation of new foreign currency reserves from dollars to euros. |
