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????上周末,，意大利總統(tǒng)任命馬里奧?蒙蒂為新一屆總理,，希望他能帶領(lǐng)這個(gè)國(guó)家走出歐債危機(jī)。這位新任領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人取代了意大利歷史上任職時(shí)間最長(zhǎng)的總理西爾維奧?貝盧斯科尼,，擺在他面前的是步步逼近的金融崩潰威脅以及一場(chǎng)似乎每周都在不斷惡化的危機(jī),。如何能讓意大利安然渡過(guò)難關(guān)，他肩負(fù)的使命無(wú)疑艱巨而嚴(yán)峻,。

????上周隨著意大利政壇出現(xiàn)動(dòng)蕩以及外界呼吁意大利控制其快速膨脹的2.6萬(wàn)億美元債務(wù),，意大利債券的收益率飆升，達(dá)到了曾迫使其他歐元區(qū)國(guó)家尋求金融救助的水平,。這是歐債危機(jī)出現(xiàn)的一個(gè)令人憂心的變化,。意大利債臺(tái)高筑，經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)緩慢。它的經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模讓它的問(wèn)題對(duì)全球金融體系構(gòu)成了相當(dāng)?shù)耐{,。而且作為歐元區(qū)第三大經(jīng)濟(jì)體,，意大利也被認(rèn)為規(guī)模太大而無(wú)法救助。

????不用說(shuō),，投資者完全有理由擔(dān)心,。但他們也有理由相信意大利有能力自己走出金融危機(jī)。意大利的經(jīng)濟(jì)不像希臘或其他被救助的歐元區(qū)國(guó)家那樣慘淡,。意大利的公共財(cái)政可能確實(shí)一團(tuán)糟,，但私營(yíng)部門卻相對(duì)強(qiáng)勁——投資者們可能忽略了這一點(diǎn)。誠(chéng)然,，正如《華爾街日?qǐng)?bào)》（The Wall Street Journal）所指出的那樣,，意大利私營(yíng)部門的主體是一些看似缺乏成長(zhǎng)性的小企業(yè)。不過(guò),，意大利人也是出了名的愛(ài)存錢,。因此，和政府不同,，意大利家庭和許多私營(yíng)企業(yè)的債務(wù)都相對(duì)較低,。

????彼得森國(guó)際經(jīng)濟(jì)研究所（Peterson Institute for International Economics）客座研究員胡安?卡羅斯?馬第尼斯?奧利維亞的研究顯示，截至2010年底,，意大利居民家庭和非金融公司的金融負(fù)債占GDP比例為126%,，而歐元區(qū)為168%，美國(guó)為166%,，英國(guó)更是超過(guò)了200%,。而且，意大利從根本上講也遠(yuǎn)比其他邊緣國(guó)家富?！獯罄辈渴菤W洲最富的地區(qū)之一,。而且，目前對(duì)海外投資者的凈負(fù)債也僅及GDP的24%,。馬第尼斯?奧利維亞稱這一比例雖然高于歐元區(qū)13%的均值,，但仍大大低于那些焦頭爛額的邊緣經(jīng)濟(jì)體——葡萄牙為107%，希臘為96%,，愛(ài)爾蘭為91%,，西班牙也達(dá)到了89%。

????意大利新一屆政府目前面臨的挑戰(zhàn)是如何將財(cái)富留在國(guó)內(nèi),。雖然現(xiàn)在還沒(méi)有任何銀行擠提的跡象，但更大的經(jīng)濟(jì)恐慌可能會(huì)嚇得意大利人把財(cái)富轉(zhuǎn)移到海外,。

????“如果意大利人對(duì)他們的政府足夠有信心,，相信政府能阻止金融崩潰，就會(huì)有足夠的國(guó)內(nèi)財(cái)富來(lái)幫助政府來(lái)做到這一點(diǎn)，” 彼得森研究員雅各布?芬克?科克加德寫道,。

????上周末,，意大利國(guó)會(huì)通過(guò)了歐盟敦促的財(cái)政緊縮法案，計(jì)劃縮減開(kāi)支,，刺激經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng),。法案從出售資產(chǎn)，市政服務(wù)私有化,，2026年起推遲退休年齡,，再到為雇傭年輕人的公司提供稅收優(yōu)惠等無(wú)所不包。

????科克加德認(rèn)為,，意大利新一屆政府在規(guī)劃下一步舉措時(shí),，或許可以考慮吸引一部分民間資金來(lái)購(gòu)買主權(quán)債券。但這要看意大利新總理能不能說(shuō)服民眾做出短期財(cái)務(wù)犧牲——他認(rèn)為這是有可能的,，因?yàn)楹芏嘁獯罄挟a(chǎn)人士正在邁入老年,，將越來(lái)越依賴政府提供的醫(yī)療保健服務(wù)。

????意大利的這些改革能否讓它回復(fù)正軌仍有待觀察,。但即使有這樣一天,，它也不會(huì)是歐元區(qū)率先擺脫危機(jī)、讓投資者相信未來(lái)更美好的國(guó)家,。

????目前的情況依然不是很樂(lè)觀,，但看看愛(ài)爾蘭吧。在銀行業(yè)危機(jī)迫使愛(ài)爾蘭于去年尋求救助之前,，凱爾特之虎的經(jīng)濟(jì)基本面相對(duì)強(qiáng)勁,。自那以來(lái)，隨著有兩個(gè)季度愛(ài)爾蘭的出口增速都好于預(yù)期,，愛(ài)爾蘭債券的收益率已下降近半,。確實(shí)，和愛(ài)爾蘭類似,，意大利經(jīng)濟(jì)的未來(lái)很大程度上取決于危機(jī)將如何蔓延及其對(duì)歐元區(qū)的影響,。上周歐盟警告稱歐元區(qū)可能陷入“深度而持續(xù)的衰退”，類似這樣的消息自然不會(huì)有幫助,。

????眼下需要指出的是,，意大利新一屆政府要改善局勢(shì)，手頭要做的工作可不少,。

????Over the weekend, Italy's president tapped Mario Monti to lead the country out of Europe's sovereign debt crisis. The new leader, who replaces Silvio Berlusconi, one of Italy's longest-serving prime ministers, now faces the arduous task of defending the country from financial collapse and a crisis that seems to get worse every week.

????Last week, following political uncertainty and calls for Italy to control its soaring $2.6 trillion debt, yields on Italian bonds soared to levels that previously sent other euro zone nations scrambling for financial help. This marked a scary new development in Europe's ongoing crisis. Italy is plagued by massive debts and slow growth. Its economic weight makes its problems quite threatening to the world's financial system. And as the euro zone's third-largest economy, it's said to be too big to bail out.

????Needless to say, investors have every reason to fret. But they also have reason to hope that Italy is well-equipped to dig out of its financial hole. Its economy is not nearly as dire as Greece or other bailed-out euro zone nations. Italy's public finances might be a mess, but its private sector is relatively strong -- something investors may be overlooking. Admittedly, as The Wall Street Journal pointed out, its private sector is made up of mostly small mom-and-pop shops that seem unable to grow. However, Italy is known to be a nation of savers. So unlike its government, Italy's households and many private businesses have relatively low debt.

????At the end of 2010, financial debt of households and non-financial firms amounted to 126% of GDP, compared with 168% in the euro area, 166% in the United States, and more than 200% in the United Kingdom, writes Juan Carlos Martinez Oliva, visiting fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. Also, Italy is fundamentally a far richer country than any of the other peripheral countries – Northern Italy is among the richest regions in Europe. And net debts owed to investors abroad is equal to only 24% of GDP, which Martinez Oliva notes is higher than the euro area's average of 13% but still well below levels for the troubled peripheral economies of Portugal at 107%, Greece at 96%, Ireland at 91% and Spain at 89%.

????The challenge now for Italy's new government is to preserve the country's wealth. Though there haven't been any signs of bank runs, the risk is that a bigger economic panic could scare Italians into putting their money elsewhere.

????"If Italians trust their government enough to prevent it from financially collapsing, there should be ample domestic wealth to do so," writes Jacob Funk Kirkegaard, research fellow with Peterson.

????Over the weekend, the Italian Parliament approved austerity measures sought by the European Union to cut spending and stimulate growth. They include everything from selling assets and privatizing municipal services to raising the retirement age by 2026 and offering tax breaks to companies that hire young workers.

????As Italy's new government plots its next steps, Kirkegaard says officials could tap parts of its citizens' wealth to buy up sovereign debt. But this will depend largely on whether Italy's new leader can convince them to accept short-term financial sacrifices – a possibility, he notes, given that most well-to-do Italians are getting older and will increasingly turn to government-run health care services.

????It remains to be seen if any of Italy's reforms will steer it down the right financial path, but if it does, it wouldn't be the first bailed out euro zone nation to convince investors that brighter days are ahead.

????It's not quite a rosy picture yet, but take a look at Ireland. The Celtic Tiger had relatively strong economic fundamentals before a banking crisis forced it seek a bailout last year. Since then, yields on Irish bonds have fallen nearly half after two quarters of better-than expected export growth. Indeed, similar to Ireland, much of Italy's economic future depends how the crisis might spread and impact the euro zone. And it doesn't help that the European Union last week warned that the euro zone could fall into a "deep and prolonged recession."

????For now, it's worth noting that Italy's new government has a few things to work with as it tries to make things right.