????讓意大利慶幸的是以歐元區(qū)所有成員國為后盾的歐洲央行伸出了援手,。今年夏天，投資者開始停止買入意大利債券,，歐洲央行挺身而出,，在二級市場購入了意大利債券進行干預(yù)。歐洲央行這一前所未有的,、法律上仍存疑點的干預(yù)舉動幫助意大利債券的收益率降到了更可管理的水平,。歐洲央行表示，此次干預(yù)是“應(yīng)急之舉”,，一旦擴容后的歐洲救助基金,，即歐洲金融穩(wěn)定基金(The European Financial Stability Facility，簡稱EFSF)開始運轉(zhuǎn)，歐洲央行就會退到一邊,。
????經(jīng)過數(shù)月的政治磋商,，10月份歐元區(qū)所有成員國終于批準了EFSF擴容事宜。此后不久,，歐洲央行重申不會作為EFSF的后盾,，而且購買債券的職責(zé)也將很快移交給EFSF。
????市場可不喜歡聽到這些消息,。自從歐洲央行做出上述聲明,，意大利債券收益率穩(wěn)步上升，即便是在歐元區(qū)成員國同意通過借力民間,，將新擴容的EFSF基金規(guī)模（4,400億歐元）再度擴大2-3倍.之后,，上升的趨勢也沒有發(fā)生改變。
????與此同時,，歐洲央行仍在默默買入意大利債券,。上周它買入了約95億歐元的意大利債券，購買額是之前一周的兩倍,。歐洲債券交易員告訴《財富》雜志（Fortune）,，如果沒有歐洲央行的持續(xù)干預(yù)，意大利債券收益率可能早已升至兩位數(shù),。由于有太多不確定因素，私人投資者對意大利債券的需求少之又少,。歐洲央行可能撒手不管以及意大利政府可能換屆的傳言推動周二早間意大利債券收益率升至歷史高點6.74%,。
????意大利債券不可持續(xù)的高收益率無疑是在告訴羅馬和布魯塞爾：市場還是不相信你們。市場不相信意大利政府——無論是由貝盧斯科尼,、還是技術(shù)官員領(lǐng)導(dǎo)——會實施必要的嚴厲改革整頓意大利的財政狀況并幫助其走向經(jīng)濟繁榮,。市場不相信EFSF僅憑一己之力就能撐起意大利脆弱的債券市場，以及希臘,、葡萄牙,、愛爾蘭和西班牙的債券市場。市場也不相信EFSF通過金融工程安排的擴容新計劃能夠取得成功,。
????明年意大利有約3,000億歐元的舊債需要換成新債,。EFSF根本沒有能力消化這么多債券，同時支持歐元區(qū)其他邊緣國家,。歐盟和意大利需要重新贏得私人市場的信賴,。要實現(xiàn)這一點，投資者要看到或聽到的可不只是金融上的小花招和酸掉牙的意大利情歌,。 |
|
|
????Lucky for Italy, the European Central Bank, which is backed by all members of the euro zone, came riding to the rescue. When investors stopped buying Italian debt this summer, the ECB stepped in and bought Italian bonds on the secondary markets. This unprecedented, and legally questionable, intervention by the ECB helped bring in Italian bond yields to more manageable levels. The ECB said the intervention was an "emergency measure" and that it would be suspended once the recently enlarged European bailout fund, The European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), was up and running.
????After several months of political haggling, the newly enlarged EFSF was finally agreed to by all the members of the euro zone in October. Soon after, the ECB reiterated that it would not be backing the fund and that it would be transferring bond buying duties to the EFSF in short order.
????The market did not like that at all. Italian bond yields have steadily increased since the ECB made that announcement and have continued to do so even after euro zone nations agreed to lever up the fund by two to three times its newly enlarged size of 440 billion euros.
????Meanwhile, the ECB has still been quietly buying up Italian debt. Last week it bought around 9.5 billion euros worth of Italian debt, double what it purchased during the previous week. Without the continued ECB intervention, Italian bond yields would have probably blown out into the double digits, European debt traders tell Fortune. There is still very little private demand for Italian paper given all the uncertainty in the market. The threat of an ECB pullout combined with talk of a government change helped push Italian bond yields to a record high 6.74% this morning.
????This unsustainably high yield for Italian debt is the market's way of telling Rome and Brussels: We still don't believe you. It doesn't believe that the Italian government, whether it is led by Berlusconi or technocrats, will make the tough changes necessary, to not only get Italy's fiscal house in order, but to also help grow its way to prosperity. It doesn't believe that the EFSF has the power to prop up Italy's fledgling debt market -along with that of Greece, Portugal, Ireland and Spain - all on its own. And it doesn't believe that the new plan to "lever up" the fund through clever financial engineering will work, either.
????The Italians have around 300 billion euros worth of debt that it needs to roll over next year. The EFSF simply doesn't have the ability to absorb that much debt and support the rest of the euro zone periphery. The EU and Italy need the private market to trust it once again. For that to happen, investors will need to be offered more than financial trickery and cheesy Italian love songs. |
