????除了盈利增長，當(dāng)然還有盈利質(zhì)量,。上周四,，摩根大通（J.P. Morgan）公布的每股收益為1.02美元，掀開了盈利數(shù)據(jù)之爭——該數(shù)據(jù)初看似乎穩(wěn)穩(wěn)高于市場普遍預(yù)期的0.92美元,。但一如既往的是,，問題在于盈利質(zhì)量。摩根大通每股收益中有0.29美元是“由于公司信貸利息擴(kuò)大,，投行業(yè)務(wù)的借方估值調(diào)整（DVA）盈利,。”因此,，如果我們剔除信貸利差擴(kuò)大對摩根大通盈利的貢獻(xiàn),，該公司每股收益同比就會(huì)下降27%。這就是爭議所在,！
????全球宏觀情況方面,，更迫在眉睫的問題是中國可能難以維持對歐洲的高出口。公平而言,，9月份中國出口總額增長17.1%,，這是一個(gè)很高的數(shù)字。不幸的是,，對歐洲出口（歐洲是中國最大的貿(mào)易伙伴）大幅下滑,，從8月份的同比增長22%繼續(xù)下降至9月份的9.8%，創(chuàng)下18個(gè)月來中國對歐洲出口同比增幅的次低,。
????中國的經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)顯然在放緩,，但在我們看來,，目前斷言中國經(jīng)濟(jì)將大幅放緩仍為時(shí)過早。正如我的同事達(dá)瑞斯?戴爾上周寫到：
????“全盤考慮,，中國啟動(dòng)貨幣寬松政策可能仍需一段時(shí)間,。以2008年為參照，我們可以看到,，中國整整等了6個(gè)月才確認(rèn)了CPI增速為持平至下降,，CPI同比下降380個(gè)基點(diǎn)后，中國才在當(dāng)年9月初宣布降息,?！?/p>
????當(dāng)然了，經(jīng)濟(jì)增速不會(huì)永遠(yuǎn)放緩,，而且不管是通過貨幣政策刺激,，還是內(nèi)生性增長，我們期待看到的積極催化劑是經(jīng)濟(jì)增長加速,。但到目前為止,，這一點(diǎn)仍難有定論。 |
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????Alongside earnings growth, there is of course the quality of earnings. J.P. Morgan (JPM) kicked off the earnings debate yesterday with earnings of $1.02 per share -- at first blush, it seemed solidly above consensus of $0.92. The question as always, though, relates to the quality of earnings, and $0.29 of EPS was a "benefit from debit valuation adjustment ("DVA") gains in the investment bank, resulting from widening of the Firm's credit spreads." So, if we back out the benefit to JPM's earnings from widening of their credit spreads, EPS declined -27% year-over-year. Yikes !
????The more pressing failure in global macro land is the failure of the Chinese to maintain high exports to Europe. To be fair, in aggregate Chinese exports overall were up 17.1% in September, which is a formidable number. Unfortunately, exports to Europe, Chinese largest trading partner, declined substantially, sequentially from 22% year-over-year in August to 9.8% in September. This is the second-slowest year-over-year growth rate of Chinese exports to Europe in 18 months.
????Chinese economic activity is clearly slowing, but in our purview it is still too early to call for massive Chinese easing. As my colleague Darius Dale wrote this week:
????"All things considered, it could be a while before China pulls the trigger on the monetary easing front. Merely using 2008 as a semi-comparable reference, we saw that China waited a full six months for confirmation of flat-to-down sequential CPI growth and a -380bps reduction in YoY CPI before cutting interest rates in early September of that year."
????Certainly though, growth doesn't slow forever and whether by monetary stimulus or organic means, the positive catalyst we will be looking for is growth accelerating, on the margin. So far though, it is too early to bet on that. |
