????在上周四致客戶的報(bào)告中,，針對(duì)目前蘋(píng)果（Apple）對(duì)谷歌（Google）Android手機(jī)制造商展開(kāi)的專利訴訟，獨(dú)立調(diào)查機(jī)構(gòu)伯恩斯坦（Bernstein）的托尼?薩克納西做了仔細(xì)分析,。
????總而言之,，薩克納西力挺蘋(píng)果。他提出的兩大要點(diǎn)如下（我引用自原文）：
????? 我們預(yù)計(jì)蘋(píng)果將竭盡全力,、毫不留情地推動(dòng)法律訴訟,。我們認(rèn)為蘋(píng)果的最大目標(biāo)是通過(guò)強(qiáng)迫Android在關(guān)鍵性基礎(chǔ)功能上采取替代辦法，以遏制其發(fā)展態(tài)勢(shì),。如果此法奏效,，將為蘋(píng)果帶來(lái)豐厚而積極的經(jīng)濟(jì)效益。鑒于蘋(píng)果與任何廠商對(duì)簿公堂都可能是弊大于利（因?yàn)樘O(píng)果在智能手機(jī)市場(chǎng)的出貨量要高于其它任何廠商）,，所以按常理推斷,，蘋(píng)果應(yīng)該對(duì)其挑起的訴訟大戰(zhàn)有十足獲勝把握。如果蘋(píng)果能順利迫使Android更改某些功能,，那么將導(dǎo)致市場(chǎng)份額的此消彼長(zhǎng),，也將為蘋(píng)果帶來(lái)豐厚而積極的經(jīng)濟(jì)效益,。我們預(yù)計(jì)到2013年，蘋(píng)果將從Android手中奪下10個(gè)百分點(diǎn)的智能手機(jī)市場(chǎng)份額（目前Android和蘋(píng)果分別占據(jù)智能手機(jī)市場(chǎng)份額的46%和18%）,，蘋(píng)果年?duì)I收將增加超過(guò)300億美元,，全年每股盈利將增加10美元以上。
????? 雖然看起來(lái)蘋(píng)果在與宏達(dá)電（HTC）的專利大戰(zhàn)中已占據(jù)上風(fēng),，但我們認(rèn)為目前的判決僅僅是熱身,。蘋(píng)果目前針對(duì)宏達(dá)電展開(kāi)了第二輪專利訴訟，以及針對(duì)Android手機(jī)關(guān)鍵制造商三星（Samsung）和摩托羅拉（Motorola）分別提起了專利訴訟,。這些訴訟均涉及iOS的多點(diǎn)觸摸專利,，由于這些專利可能顛覆Android，所以我們認(rèn)為這才是蘋(píng)果要不惜一切代價(jià)捍衛(wèi)的知識(shí)產(chǎn)權(quán),。雖然宏達(dá)電（明確地說(shuō),，是宏達(dá)電最近收購(gòu)的S3 Graphics公司）和蘋(píng)果最近在美國(guó)國(guó)際貿(mào)易委員會(huì)（ITC，International Trade Commission）各勝一場(chǎng),，但我們相信S3的勝利影響有限（與蘋(píng)果針對(duì)宏達(dá)電提出的訴求并不一樣）,，不會(huì)對(duì)蘋(píng)果造成實(shí)質(zhì)性威脅。更為重要的是,，蘋(píng)果最近針對(duì)關(guān)鍵的多點(diǎn)觸摸專利,，對(duì)宏達(dá)電展開(kāi)第二輪專利侵權(quán)訴訟。我們認(rèn)為這次大戰(zhàn)的意義要重要得多,，不過(guò)目前還沒(méi)有任何法庭做出判決,。蘋(píng)果針對(duì)其它關(guān)鍵Android OEM（原始設(shè)備制造）廠商（三星和摩托羅拉）提起的訴訟同樣涉及多點(diǎn)觸摸專利。與多點(diǎn)觸摸專利重要性相對(duì)應(yīng)的是,，蘋(píng)果最近與諾基亞（Nokia）達(dá)成專利訴訟和解,，其所附帶的授權(quán)協(xié)議中似乎并未包括這些專利。
????譯者：項(xiàng)航 |
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? In a note to clients issued Thursday, Bernstein's Toni Sacconaghi takes a hard look at the flurry of patent lawsuits Apple (AAPL) has launched against the manufacturers of Google (GOOG) Android phones.
? All in all, he likes Apple's chances. The two key bullet points (we quote):
? ? We anticipate that Apple will push its legal claims hard and unrelentingly and believe that the company's key goal is to upend Android's momentum by forcing a work around on key essential features which, if successful, could have huge, positive financial implications for Apple. Given that Apple appears to have more to lose in any one legal case than they might gain (since Apple ships a much higher value of smartphones than any other player), logic suggests that Apple feels confident in its odds of winning patent disputes it initiates. Should Apple prevail in forcing Android to rework some of its functionality, resulting in market share shifts, it could have huge, positive financial implications for Apple: we note that a 10 percentage point shift in smartphone market share from Android to Apple (the current run-rate smartphone market share is 46% for Android vs. 18% for Apple) in 2013 is worth an estimated $30B+ in annual revenue and $10+ in annual EPS to Apple.
? ? Apple appears to have the strong upper hand in its legal battle with HTC, but we see the current rulings as only a warm up bout. A second Apple suit against HTC – as well as separate suits against key Android vendors Samsung and Motorola – involves its iOS multi-touch patents, which we believe are the key pieces of IP that Apple ultimately seeks to reaffirm at all costs, given their potential to undermine Android. While HTC (specifically, its recent acquisition – S3 Graphics) and Apple recently won preliminary judgments against each other at the US ITC, we view S3's victory as limited in scope (unlike Apple's claims against HTC) and not posing a credible threat to Apple. More importantly, however, Apple recently launched a second case against HTC claiming infringement of its key multi-touch patents. We believe this is the much more important battle, and one which courts have yet to rule upon. Apple's legal suits against other key Android OEMs (Samsung and Motorola) also include claim violation of such patents. Consistent with the importance of this IP, Apple's recent settlement of its patent dispute and accompanying licensing agreement with Nokia does not appear to involve these patents. |
