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????去年夏天,，當(dāng)蘋果（Apple）股價(jià)達(dá)到260美元時(shí),，我們基于尼古拉?米哈拉齊的分析數(shù)據(jù)發(fā)表了一篇文章,。米哈拉齊是一位羅馬尼亞裔數(shù)學(xué)家，在巴黎大學(xué)任教,。他當(dāng)時(shí)利用大量圖表和各種準(zhǔn)則來(lái)跟蹤蘋果的業(yè)績(jī),。其中既有廣為人知的P/E標(biāo)準(zhǔn)（市盈率，即股價(jià)與凈利潤(rùn)之比）,，也有非?；逎y懂的P - $EG標(biāo)準(zhǔn)（用每股價(jià)格與每股現(xiàn)金持有量的差值除以年增長(zhǎng)率。）

????鑒于蘋果的PEG（市盈率除以凈利潤(rùn)的年增長(zhǎng)率）僅為0.25,，米哈拉齊當(dāng)時(shí)得出結(jié)論稱,，蘋果260美元的股價(jià)仍有很大增長(zhǎng)空間。（一般認(rèn)為,，當(dāng)一只股票的PEG小于1時(shí),，該股票股價(jià)存在低估。）

????米哈拉齊在恰好是一年之后,，即本周二時(shí)再次關(guān)注了這個(gè)話題,。他在股市及金融研究網(wǎng)站Seeking Alpha發(fā)表文章探討蘋果目前400美元的股價(jià)是否仍被低估。

????事實(shí)上他得出結(jié)論稱,，仍然主要從PEG方面考慮,，蘋果的股價(jià)與一年前相比，低估程度甚至更大,。蘋果在過(guò)去12個(gè)月的凈利潤(rùn)年復(fù)增長(zhǎng)率高達(dá)90%,，而其股價(jià)僅上漲了50%，所以其PEG從0.25下滑至0.17,。

????基于這點(diǎn),，米哈拉齊做出了如下預(yù)測(cè)：

????“為了保險(xiǎn)起見(jiàn)，同時(shí)避免出現(xiàn)高得離奇的估值預(yù)測(cè),，我假定蘋果在2012和2013年市盈率將進(jìn)一步下降（12和10）,，同時(shí)其利潤(rùn)增長(zhǎng)率也出現(xiàn)下降（分別為80%和60%）。除非蘋果突然一蹶不振,，我預(yù)計(jì)一年之后,，蘋果股價(jià)將達(dá)到550美元甚至更高,，2012年底將達(dá)到650美元,，而2013年底至少達(dá)到850美元?！?/p>

????【蘋果股價(jià)周二以403.41美元收盤,，上漲4.91美元（1.23%），當(dāng)天股價(jià)最高達(dá)到404.50美元,?！?/p>

????米哈拉齊經(jīng)常對(duì)蘋果做出很高預(yù)測(cè),。不過(guò)在我們最近進(jìn)行的一次蘋果收益預(yù)測(cè)比賽中，米哈拉齊的表現(xiàn)遠(yuǎn)超其他分析師,。我們當(dāng)時(shí)比較了48位分析師對(duì)蘋果2011年第三財(cái)季的預(yù)測(cè)數(shù)據(jù),，其中既有專業(yè)分析師，也有業(yè)余分析師,。

????譯者：項(xiàng)航

????Last summer, when Apple (AAPL) was trading for $260 a share, we ran an item on some analytical work by Nicholae Mihalache, a Romanian mathematician who teaches at the University of Paris. He had prepared a series of charts tracking Apple's performance using various criteria, from the familiar P/E (price to earnings) ratio to the more obscure P - $EG (the difference between share price and cash holdings per share divided by annual growth rate).

????He concluded, based primarily on Apple's PEG (price over earnings divided by growth), which at the time was 0.25, that Apple at $260 had considerable room to grow. (Traditionally, any stock with a PEG less than 1.0 is considered undervalued.)

????Mihalache returned to the subject Tuesday, exactly one year later, with an article in Seeking Alpha that asks whether Apple at $400 is still undervalued.

????In fact he concludes that, based primarily on the PEG ratio, Apple's shares are even more undervalued now than they were a year ago. The company's earnings over the past 12 months have grown at the rate of 90% per year while its stock is up about 50%, moving Apple's PEG from 0.25 to 0.17.

????On that basis he makes some forecasts:

????"In order to be conservative and to avoid ridiculously high valuation predictions," he writes, "I will assume further P/E compression (12 and 10) and earnings growth cooling off in 2012 and 2013 (respectively, 80% and 60%). Barring any market meltdown, I predict that one year from now AAPL will be at $550 or more, $650 by the end of 2012, and at least $850 by the end of 2013."

????[The stock closed Tuesday at $403.41, up $4.91 (1.23%) for the day, having traded as high as $404.50.]

????Mihalache tends to set high bars for Apple. But in our most recent earnings smackdown, in which we compared the Q3 2011 estimates of 48 Apple analysts -- professional and amateur -- Mihalache's were, by a large margin, the best.