我想看一级黄色片_欧美性爱无遮挡电影_色丁香视频网站中文字幕_视频一区 视频二区 国产,日本三级理论日本电影,午夜不卡免费大片,国产午夜视频在线观看,18禁无遮拦无码国产在线播放,在线视频不卡国产在线视频不卡 ,,欧美一及黄片,日韩国产另类

????

????獨(dú)立投資公司Gluskin Sheff的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家大衛(wèi)?羅森博格相信確有其事。3月份,，不光是失業(yè)觸底,，下降至8.8%。羅森博格還發(fā)現(xiàn)實(shí)際可支配收入,、家庭就業(yè),、實(shí)際商業(yè)銷(xiāo)售以及制造業(yè)產(chǎn)值均在3月份上升至最高峰。

????最近,，隨著高盛（Goldman Sachs）和美國(guó)銀行（Bank of America）紛紛調(diào)低第二季度和第三季度增長(zhǎng)預(yù)測(cè)指標(biāo),，關(guān)于美國(guó)增長(zhǎng)的疑慮也是日漸盛行。美國(guó)洛杉磯加州大學(xué)（UCLA）經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家愛(ài)德?里默認(rèn)為經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇這一輪復(fù)蘇（產(chǎn)出的增速大于常規(guī),，逐漸填補(bǔ)了危機(jī)期間兩者的差距）已于去年夏天結(jié)束,。

????但是羅森博格進(jìn)一步指出，去年出現(xiàn)的經(jīng)濟(jì)二次“疲軟”預(yù)示了世界公認(rèn)最靈活的經(jīng)濟(jì)體正步入新一輪的低迷期,。

????羅森博格周一在給客戶的信中寫(xiě)道,，“美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)最主要的四大支柱指標(biāo)在同一個(gè)月份達(dá)到峰值,，表明我們離經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的結(jié)局不遠(yuǎn)了,。”

????當(dāng)然,，羅森博格之前也有過(guò)類(lèi)似論斷,。上個(gè)月他說(shuō)美國(guó)發(fā)生衰退的概率大約為99%。他的想法自有他的道理,，然而,，業(yè)內(nèi)其他人士，例如美國(guó)銀行（BofA）的伊森?哈里斯,，仍認(rèn)為今年年中很多增長(zhǎng)態(tài)勢(shì)并沒(méi)有顯現(xiàn)出來(lái),，然而這些態(tài)勢(shì)會(huì)在第四季度的時(shí)候奇跡般地回歸。

????哈里斯將第二季度增長(zhǎng)率由原先的2%調(diào)低為1.5%,，第三季度的預(yù)測(cè)增長(zhǎng)率由2.9%調(diào)低為2.5,，唯獨(dú)將第四季度的增長(zhǎng)率由原先的3%調(diào)高至3.5%。哈里斯和其他人預(yù)計(jì)日本經(jīng)濟(jì)的反彈和能源價(jià)格的下跌將有利于刺激第四季度的經(jīng)濟(jì)活力，這種預(yù)測(cè)很有可能成為現(xiàn)實(shí),。但是在經(jīng)歷的大半年的經(jīng)濟(jì)不景氣后,，相信很難有人能真心實(shí)意地高唱復(fù)蘇凱歌。

????

????Gluskin Sheff economist David Rosenberg believes it did. It isn't just that the unemployment rate bottomed out in March at 8.8%. Rosenberg notes that real disposable income, household employment, real business sales and manufacturing output all peaked that month.

???Skepticism about U.S. growth is catching lately, what with Goldman Sachs and Bank of America both cutting their second- and third-quarter forecasts in recent days. UCLA economist Ed Leamer contends the recovery -- the process in which output rises faster than trend, closing the gap that opened up during the recession -- ended last summer.

????But Rosenberg goes a step further, taking the second economic "soft patch" in the past year as another sign that the world's most supposedly flexible economy is stumbling toward another downturn.

????"These are four critical pillars of the economy and they all peaked the same month," Rosenberg writes in a note to clients Monday. "Something tells me we are very close to a recessionary outcome here."

????Of course, Rosenberg has said this before. He said last month he viewed the odds of a U.S. recession as being about 99%. But his skepticism is worth bearing in minds as other forecasters, such as BofA's Ethan Harris, continue to assume that much of the growth that went missing in the middle of this year will magically reappear in the fourth quarter.

????Harris last week cut his second-quarter growth view to 1.5% from 2% and his third-quarter forecast to 2.5% from 2.9%, while boosting his fourth-quarter projection to 3.5% from 3%. Harris and others figure a Japanese economic bounce and lower energy prices will boost activity by then, and it is certainly possible that will happen. But it's hard to believe anyone can sing that song with much conviction after the downhill ride we've had most of this year.