????如果你經(jīng)常關(guān)注市場(chǎng)評(píng)論，就知道這些評(píng)論說(shuō)什么的都有,。有的充當(dāng)拉拉隊(duì),，比如First Albany的休?約翰遜過(guò)去就是這樣。有的則是知識(shí)分子型,，像《格蘭特利率觀察家》（Grant's Interest Rate Observer）的詹姆斯?格蘭特,。格蘭特錯(cuò)的時(shí)候和對(duì)的時(shí)候一樣多，但不管怎樣他的觀點(diǎn)都值得一讀,。
????還有的是開(kāi)出猛藥的拯救者(格蘭特當(dāng)然也屬于此列),。我最喜歡的當(dāng)屬里昂證券(CLSA)《貪婪與恐懼》(Greed & Fear)簡(jiǎn)報(bào)的撰稿人克里斯托弗?伍德，這位前記者以華爾街罕見(jiàn)的敘述筆法寫(xiě)作,。不僅將新聞置入相應(yīng)的背景之中,，還會(huì)在必要時(shí)加入引人入勝的情節(jié)。他的最新著作是什么——在多米尼克?斯特勞斯-卡恩沸沸揚(yáng)揚(yáng)的辭職后,，國(guó)際貨幣基金組織(International Monetary Fund)的新任總裁不應(yīng)來(lái)自西方發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家,，而應(yīng)來(lái)自那些將很快成為成為發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家債主的國(guó)家,。
????伍德的原話如下：“《貪婪與恐懼》必須承認(rèn),，卡恩在重塑?chē)?guó)際貨幣基金組織方面是非常成功的，他利用近期西方的金融危機(jī),，對(duì)早已失去存在理由的國(guó)際貨幣基金組織進(jìn)行重新定位,。不過(guò)，近期事件令《貪婪與恐懼》不能忽視同樣突出的利益沖突,，即在國(guó)際貨幣基金組織積極參與協(xié)商歐洲地區(qū)頗為敏感的救助計(jì)劃之時(shí),，由下屆法國(guó)總統(tǒng)熱門(mén)候選人掌舵國(guó)際貨幣基金組織可能存在的利益沖突。現(xiàn)實(shí)是在可預(yù)見(jiàn)的未來(lái),，國(guó)際貨幣基金組織的救助對(duì)象可能主要是債臺(tái)高筑的西方,。僅憑這個(gè)原因，讓來(lái)自新興市場(chǎng)的代表出任該機(jī)構(gòu)總裁就意義重大,?！?/p>
????瞧,，我不是富有自我批判精神的美國(guó)人。我只是幾年前才向星條旗宣誓效忠,，因?yàn)楹蛺?ài)人結(jié)婚變成了一名美國(guó)人,。但伍德是對(duì)的——不管美國(guó)，還是其歐洲盟友,，眼下都沒(méi)有資格教導(dǎo)世界其他地區(qū)如何管理財(cái)政問(wèn)題,。
????據(jù)報(bào)道，法國(guó)財(cái)長(zhǎng)克里斯汀?拉嘉德是取代卡恩的熱門(mén)人選,。我想這是因?yàn)榉▏?guó)長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)的經(jīng)濟(jì)強(qiáng)國(guó)地位,。戈登?布朗也表示希望一試。當(dāng)然,，這是基于當(dāng)前英國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)碰巧表現(xiàn)強(qiáng)勁,。
????德國(guó)總理默克爾認(rèn)為，下一任國(guó)際貨幣基金組織總裁應(yīng)是歐洲人(其他很多歐洲人也這么想,。多出人意料?。? 這當(dāng)然是因?yàn)闅W洲已用事實(shí)展現(xiàn)出他們知道如何管好自己的事務(wù),，包括歐元以及希臘,、葡萄牙和愛(ài)爾蘭等賴賬人。嗨——?jiǎng)e誤解我的意思,。我可以理解非理性繁榮的后果,，但肯定不會(huì)支持提名那些“敗家子”出任國(guó)際貨幣基金組織總裁一職。20世紀(jì)50年代以來(lái)?yè)?dān)任國(guó)際貨幣基金組織總裁的有一位比利時(shí)人,，一位荷蘭人,，幾位瑞典人，數(shù)位法國(guó)人,，一位德國(guó)人,，一位西班牙人和一些美國(guó)人。
????巴西如何,？或者是一些經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)力較強(qiáng)的非洲國(guó)家呢,？還是說(shuō)他們根本就只能匍匐于我們的揮霍無(wú)度？說(shuō)得更直白一點(diǎn),，中國(guó)呢,？中國(guó)人民銀行行長(zhǎng)周小川認(rèn)為，應(yīng)考慮來(lái)自新興市場(chǎng)的候選人,。你可以看到蒂姆?蓋特納和美國(guó)總統(tǒng)奧巴馬整天都在發(fā)表強(qiáng)硬的美元言論,，這全是因?yàn)樗麄冋媾R被中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)趕超的悲哀境地，后者不存在房地產(chǎn)泡沫。什么是真相,？在主要經(jīng)濟(jì)體中,，中國(guó)是全球少數(shù)在2007/2008年未自食其言的國(guó)家之一。那么,，在目前這樣的時(shí)候,，向東方學(xué)習(xí)有什么不好呢？ |
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????If you make a habit of reading market commentators, you know that they come in a number of forms. First, there are the cheerleaders. Hugh Johnson of First Albany used to serve this purpose. Second, the intellectuals. James Grant of Grant's Interest Rate Observer comes to mind. He's been wrong as often as he's been right, but he's a damn good read in either case.
????Third, the deliverers of harsh medicine. (Grant is also included in this category, of course.) My favorite of all: Christopher Wood, author of the Greed & Fear newsletter for Asia-Pacific brokerage CLSA. Wood, a former journalist, writes with a narrative flair that's perennially lacking on Wall Street. Not only does he put the news in proper context, he also suggests good storylines when they're needed. His latest? That in the wake of Dominique Strauss-Kahn's scandalous resignation, the new head of the International Monetary Fund shouldn't come from one of the West's "developed" nations, but from one of the countries likely to be one of our lenders in the near future.
????I'll let Wood say it for himself: "GREED & fear has to admit that Dominique Strauss-Kahn has proved extraordinarily successful in re-inventing the IMF by using the recent financial crisis in the West to re-invent the role of the IMF, an institution which had outlived its raison d'être. Still recent events have reminded GREED & fear of the equally extraordinary conflict of interest posed by a leading French presidential candidate heading the IMF at a time when the institution has been so heavily involved in negotiating politically sensitive bailouts in the European periphery. The reality is that for the foreseeable future IMF bailouts are likely to be taking place primarily in the debt-infested West. For that reason alone it makes sense for the head of the institution to hail from the 'emerging' world."
????Look, I'm no self-hating American. I just became one a few years back after marrying the love of my life and pledging allegiance to the flag. But Wood is right -- neither the U.S. nor its European pals is in any position to lecture the rest of the world on how to manage one's finances these days.
????Christine Lagarde, the finance minister of France, is reportedly the leading candidate to take DSK's post. I assume that's because France is such a perennial economic powerhouse. Gordon Brown also says he wants a chance at that action. Based, of course, on the fact that Britain is hitting on all economic cylinders these days.
????German Chancellor Angela Merkel thinks the next president of the IMF should be European. (As do a number of other Europeans. Quelle surprise!) That is, of course, because Europe has so demonstratively shown that they know how to manage their own affairs, including the Euro and the welshers known as the Greeks, the Portugese, and the Irish. Hey – don't get me wrong, I can understand the aftermath of irrational exuberance when I see it, but I certainly don't normally run around nominating people who drained the community coffers as head of the finance committee. Since the 1950s, we've had a Belgian, a Dutchman, a few Swedes, a handful of Frenchmen, a German, a Spaniard, and some Americans.
????What about Brazil? Or some of the stronger African states? Or are they just kneeling at the feet of our wisdom of profligacy? More to the point, what about someone from China? Zhou Xiaochaun, head of the People's Bank of China, thinks that candidates from the emerging world should be considered. You can watch Tim Geithner and President Obama talk the strong talk about our currency all day long, but you know it's all because they're faced with the sad state of being outflanked by a Chinese economic engine that didn't overdose on bogus real estate assets. Truth? Among major powers, the Chinese are pretty much the only ones in the world who didn't choke on their own crap in 2007/2008. So what would be so bad about some Eastern learning at a time like this? |
