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????成為家喻戶曉的品牌的確是一種誘惑,。因此，思科（Cisco）首席執(zhí)行官約翰?錢伯斯率領(lǐng)公司進(jìn)軍消費(fèi)者市場(chǎng)的策略無可厚非,。但從根本上來說,，這種誘惑只是一種表象。思科的核心產(chǎn)品是路由器與網(wǎng)絡(luò)設(shè)備,?；蛟S這些業(yè)務(wù)并不光鮮亮麗，但它們卻是思科發(fā)展的根本所在,。而在消費(fèi)者領(lǐng)域,，思科的表現(xiàn)并不理想。

????在這種狀況下,，思科于上周宣布,，公司將停止生產(chǎn)頗受歡迎的Flip攝像機(jī),，并提升其對(duì)核心業(yè)務(wù)的投入。但思科的此次轉(zhuǎn)變將面臨很多挑戰(zhàn)：網(wǎng)絡(luò)設(shè)備市場(chǎng)正在快速變化,，產(chǎn)品價(jià)格不斷下降（進(jìn)而導(dǎo)致利潤減少），并且,，越來越多的新公司正在進(jìn)入這一市場(chǎng),，并與思科展開競(jìng)爭(zhēng)。

????盡管如此,，憑借在網(wǎng)絡(luò)設(shè)備市場(chǎng)三分之二的份額,，思科依然是業(yè)界領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者。而且,，隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)的逐步復(fù)蘇,，大客戶也終將重啟擱置已久的采購計(jì)劃（資金短缺的政府項(xiàng)目除外）。

????那么,，市場(chǎng)的不確定性有多大呢,？2010年，思科網(wǎng)絡(luò)設(shè)備部門的收入增長了約10%,，但整個(gè)行業(yè)的利潤卻激增了42%,。與此同時(shí)，該部門的市值下跌了23%,，這主要?dú)w因于思科股票的疲軟表現(xiàn),。思科股票在2010年持續(xù)下跌，而2011年的下跌幅度更大,。今年年初,，思科股票的價(jià)格約為27美元，而上周五收盤價(jià)幾乎跌破17美元,。

????投資者一直在呼吁,，思科公司應(yīng)該關(guān)閉消費(fèi)者業(yè)務(wù)，尤其是Flip業(yè)務(wù),。盡管Flip頗受歡迎,，但其利潤微薄，且前景不夠樂觀,，因?yàn)橹悄苁謾C(jī)的內(nèi)置視頻功能在不斷提高,。比如蘋果（Apple）iPhone 4具有同樣出色的視頻功能，那為什么還要購買Flip呢,？2009年,，思科以5.9億美元收購了Flip攝像機(jī)的制造商——純數(shù)字科技公司（Pure Digital）。盡管此次收購看起來物有所值,，但許多投資者認(rèn)為,，這對(duì)思科沒有太大的實(shí)際效果,。

????（既然Flip攝像機(jī)仍然有人買，思科為何不把Flip部門賣掉呢,？許多人對(duì)此存有疑問,。《福布斯》（Forbes）的一位博主認(rèn)為,，關(guān)閉該部門是一個(gè) “魯莽的,、戲劇性的結(jié)果”，采取這一手段,，只是為了平息輿論對(duì)公司消費(fèi)者業(yè)務(wù)策略的批評(píng),。另外一種可能是，思科管理層認(rèn)為,，他們無法從公開市場(chǎng)中收回收購成本,，而關(guān)閉Flip業(yè)務(wù)則是成本最低的一種選擇；或者,，思科只是希望產(chǎn)品的技術(shù)繼續(xù)掌握在自己手中,。畢竟，它依然在做視頻業(yè)務(wù),。但思科公司對(duì)此未發(fā)表任何評(píng)論,。）

????思科的核心業(yè)務(wù)擁有更大的利潤空間，但目前正被壓縮,。瞻博網(wǎng)絡(luò)（Juniper Networks）與Aruba網(wǎng)絡(luò)（Aruba Networks）等競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手不斷壓低價(jià)格,，使思科面臨很大壓力。截止到目前,，盡管思科尚能承受降價(jià)帶來的壓力,，但錢伯斯和他的公司能夠堅(jiān)持多久，前景并不明朗,。同時(shí),，其他大大小小的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手正在進(jìn)入該市場(chǎng)?；萜眨℉ewlett-Packard）便是其中之一,。它一方面與思科在服務(wù)器業(yè)務(wù)領(lǐng)域展開激烈競(jìng)爭(zhēng)，同時(shí)還在不斷加大對(duì)網(wǎng)絡(luò)設(shè)備的投入,。

????乍看來,，思科在交換業(yè)務(wù)市場(chǎng)上占有80%的市場(chǎng)份額，毛利率在75% - 80%之間,，這一表現(xiàn)似乎令人滿意,。在截止去年7月份的財(cái)年中，思科的銷售額增長了12%,。

????但這只是虛假的表象,。今年,，思科在該市場(chǎng)的銷售額增長率下降至7%，而其競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手卻在降低價(jià)格,，僅將利潤率保持在40%或50%,，甚至更低。雖然這并沒有使交換機(jī)市場(chǎng)陷入惡性競(jìng)爭(zhēng),，但趨勢(shì)已經(jīng)非常明顯,。因此，盡管截至目前,，思科在該市場(chǎng)占有三分之二的份額，但錢伯斯卻表示,，交換機(jī)業(yè)務(wù)是一個(gè)“艱難的市場(chǎng)”,。

????花旗集團(tuán)（Citigroup）分析師約翰?斯拉克在上周的一份報(bào)告中表示：“思科需要在保住市場(chǎng)份額與保持利潤率之間做出選擇。它不可能兩者兼得,?！边@雖然不是一種零和游戲，但思科無法做到永遠(yuǎn)阻止競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手并保住現(xiàn)有市場(chǎng)份額,，這一點(diǎn)毋庸置疑,。

????關(guān)閉Flip業(yè)務(wù)可以維持全公司的利潤率，但思科還需要采取更多措施,。去年Flip業(yè)務(wù)的收入僅為3.25億美元,，不足公司銷售額的1%。收購Flip業(yè)務(wù)的目的,，是為思科開拓家用視頻業(yè)務(wù),，而后者侵蝕了公司的利潤。

????錢伯斯表示,，公司將以“外科手術(shù)式的精準(zhǔn)操作”來執(zhí)行未來的戰(zhàn)略,，但他并未透露詳細(xì)的行動(dòng)計(jì)劃。在關(guān)閉Flip業(yè)務(wù)后,，思科還將在消費(fèi)者市場(chǎng)表現(xiàn)不佳的ūmi視頻會(huì)議業(yè)務(wù)與Eos媒體服務(wù)器產(chǎn)品撤出了消費(fèi)者市場(chǎng),，并將這兩項(xiàng)業(yè)務(wù)納入其企業(yè)業(yè)務(wù)組合。

????思科公司近期聘請(qǐng)加里?摩爾為首席運(yùn)營官,，他將負(fù)責(zé)思科新的核心業(yè)務(wù),。公司于上周確定了五個(gè)“優(yōu)先發(fā)展業(yè)務(wù)”：路由與交換、云計(jì)算與數(shù)據(jù)中心,、“架構(gòu)”（網(wǎng)絡(luò)設(shè)計(jì)）以及視頻業(yè)務(wù),。

????公司的Linksys家庭網(wǎng)絡(luò)產(chǎn)品可以勉強(qiáng)合并到“路由與交換”業(yè)務(wù)，其Scientific Atlanta機(jī)頂盒業(yè)務(wù)被合并到視頻業(yè)務(wù)中,。但是,，在其他消費(fèi)者業(yè)務(wù)與視頻業(yè)務(wù)被整合到思科專注于企業(yè)市場(chǎng)的業(yè)務(wù)線中后,，這兩項(xiàng)業(yè)務(wù)似乎都可以出售了，而分析家似乎普遍認(rèn)為,，接下來,，思科應(yīng)該拆分這兩種業(yè)務(wù)。

????錢伯斯在上周表示：“我們將把主要精力集中在協(xié)助企業(yè)與服務(wù)提供商客戶,，優(yōu)化和擴(kuò)展其為消費(fèi)者提供的產(chǎn)品與服務(wù),，并保證開展這些業(yè)務(wù)的網(wǎng)絡(luò)性能?！边@些含糊不清的言論幾乎沒有任何意義——他并沒有明確表示要保留或者關(guān)閉思科剩余的消費(fèi)者業(yè)務(wù),。總之,，思科極有可能在近期“甩掉”Linksys與Scientific Atlanta業(yè)務(wù)中的一項(xiàng)或者兩項(xiàng),。

??? 翻譯：劉進(jìn)龍

????There's a certain allure to being a household name, so you almost can't blame Cisco CEO John Chambers for trying to push his company into consumer markets. But that allure is ultimately superficial. Cisco's core products are routers and networking equipment. Those businesses might be dull, but that's where Cisco has thrived. On the consumer front, it has flopped.

????Last week, Cisco announced that it would stop making the popular Flip camcorder. The company announced that it would focus more on its core businesses. The challenge there is that the networking-gear business is rapidly changing, with prices (and hence, margins) falling and new competitors entering the market.

????Still, Cisco is the leader, owning as it does about two-thirds of the market for networking equipment. And with the economy recovering, big customers are finally making needed purchases they had been putting off for as long as they could. (One exception: cash-strapped governments.)

????How uncertain is the market? Consider that 2010 saw revenues in Cisco's sector grow by about 10%, while industry profits soared by 42%. At the same time, the sector's market value fell by 23%, mainly thanks to Cisco's limp stock. Cisco fell steadily throughout 2010, and has spent 2011 dropping even more sharply. It started the year at about $27. It closed Friday at just above $17.

????Investors had been clamoring for the company to exit the consumer business. The Flip, in particular, suffered from thin margins and -- though it was popular -- a highly uncertain future as the built-in video functionality of smartphones kept improving. Why buy a Flip when the Apple iPhone 4's video feature is just about as good? Cisco bought Flip-maker Pure Digital for $590 million in 2009 -- a relatively small purchase for the highly acquisitive company but, to many investors, a hugely symbolic one.

????(Many people have asked, given that the product is still selling, why Cisco didn't sell off the Flip. One Forbes blogger decided shutting down the division was "a flashy and dramatic denouement" to appease critics of the company's consumer strategy. It seems more likely that Cisco execs decided they couldn't have recouped its purchase price on the open market, and simply flipping the switch on Flip was the least costly option. Or maybe Cisco just wants to keep the product's technology for itself – it is, after all, still in the video business. The company did not respond to a request for comment.)

????Cisco's core business enjoys much better profit margins, but those margins could be narrowing. Competitors like Juniper Networks And Aruba Networks are putting pressure on prices. Cisco has thus far been able to resist lowering prices, but it's not clear how long Chambers and co. can hold out. Meanwhile, other competitors, large and small, are entering the market. Even as Cisco takes on Hewlett-Packard in the server business, HP is investing big in networking equipment.

????A snapshot view of the switching business makes things look great for Cisco. It has an 80% market share. Gross margins are in the 75-80% range. Sales grew by 12% in the fiscal year that ended last July.

????But that's deceptive. In the current year, sales growth has fallen to about 7%, and competitors are cutting prices, accepting margins of just 40 or 50%, or even less. That hardly makes switches a commodity business, but the trend is clear. That's why Chambers last week called the switch business a "tough market" even though his company, for now, controls two-thirds of it.

????In a note last week, Citigroup analyst John Slack wrote that, "Cisco needs to choose between protecting share or preserving margins. It simply can't do both." The reality might be less zero-sum than that, but it's true that Cisco won't be able to fend off competitors forever and keep its market share.

????Killing off the Flip will help shore up company-wide margins, but Cisco will likely have to do more -- the Flip represented just $325 million in revenue last year, or less than 1% of the company's sales. The purchase was part of a larger strategy to get Cisco into the home video business, which as a whole has eaten into margins.

????Chambers said future moves will be carried out with "surgical precision," but he didn't offer much in the way of specific plans. As it shut down Flip, the company also absorbed its ūmi videoconferencing business and its Eos media-server products into its business offerings, taking them off the consumer market where they had been languishing.

????Newly hired Chief Operating Officer Gary Moore will head up Cisco's new focus. The company last week identified five "priorities": routing and switching; cloud computing and data centers; "architectures" (network design); and video.

????The company's Linksys home-networking products might, at a stretch, fit into "routing and switching," and its Scientific Atlanta set-top box business fits into video. But with the folding of other consumer and video businesses into Cisco's business-focused lines, both seem ripe for a sale, and analysts generally seem to agree those businesses are the ones that should be next to go from Cisco's portfolio.

????Chambers said last week that, "our consumer efforts will focus on how we help our enterprise and service provider customers optimize and expand their offerings for consumers, and help ensure the network's ability to deliver on those offerings." That's just squishy enough to be almost meaningless -- it could provide a basis for either keeping or getting rid of Cisco's remaining consumer businesses. On balance, it seems likely that it will will cast off one or both of Linksys and Scientific Atlanta in the near future.