????幾年以前,，我認識的一位憤世嫉俗的編輯很喜歡挑戰(zhàn)記者，他讓他們把“性”,、“iPhone”和“奧巴馬”幾個當時的熱點詞拼在一起,，寫出一篇可信且可以發(fā)表的頭條新聞。不過據(jù)我所知,，沒有任何一個記者能完成這個任務(wù),。
????最近又有另外三個同樣抓人眼球的熱詞火了起來——“IPO”、“中國”和“Facebook”,。從上周五開始,，隨著人人網(wǎng)在紐交所（New York Stock Exchange）申請首次公開募股，諸如《中國的Facebook赴美申請IPO》之類的頭條新聞開始見諸于報端,。人人網(wǎng)是一家總部位于北京的社交網(wǎng)站,，擁有1.17億用戶。
????但是人人網(wǎng)是否真的當?shù)闷稹爸袊腇acebook”這個稱號,？更重要的是,，雖然許多賺錢的社交媒體初創(chuàng)公司持續(xù)增長，而且這些公司的胃口也越來越大,，但人人網(wǎng)真的是一個可行的IPO種子選手嗎,？在詳細研讀了人人網(wǎng)的招股書后，這兩個問題的答案似乎都是肯定的,。
????像Facebook一樣,，人人網(wǎng)最初也是一個鼓勵人們實名登錄的社交網(wǎng)站，后來為了外部業(yè)務(wù)而增加了社交游戲和電子商務(wù)功能,。而且它的平臺也面向第三方應(yīng)用的開發(fā)者開放,，這一點也和Facebook一樣,，而且人人網(wǎng)還提供了一個鏈接程序，允許用戶分享來自600多個合作網(wǎng)站的內(nèi)容,。
????事實上,，人人網(wǎng)在某些方面與Facebook極為類似，以至于在人人網(wǎng)招股書的風險因素部分中,，都流露出了對可能遭到專利訴訟的忐忑,。人人網(wǎng)的招股書先是指出Facebook擁有一些社交媒體專利，然后表示：“我們的技術(shù),、產(chǎn)品,、業(yè)務(wù)方法或服務(wù)的某些方面，可能涉及到了其他公司的一些已經(jīng)發(fā)布或暫未發(fā)布的專利,?！?/p>
????Facebook已經(jīng)被中國“墻”住了，只有少數(shù)網(wǎng)民通過虛擬局域網(wǎng)等手段“翻墻”建立了賬戶,，中國的Facebook賬戶約在40萬個左右,。少了Facebook這個大敵，人人網(wǎng)的增長十分迅速,。2009年人人網(wǎng)的營收翻了三倍多,，而2010年，其營收又增長了64%,，達到7650萬美元,。人人的增長應(yīng)該還會持續(xù)一段時間。ComScore公司的數(shù)據(jù)指出,，到2010年4月,，中國有38%的網(wǎng)民訪問社交網(wǎng)站，而這一比率在美國高達81%,。
????人人網(wǎng)的用戶非?；钴S。今年三月,，大概有3100萬人注冊人人網(wǎng),，當月平均每名用戶在該網(wǎng)站上待了7個小時的時間。迄今為止,，人人用戶已經(jīng)張貼了共計29億張照片,、2.49億篇網(wǎng)絡(luò)日志和208億條評論。
????人人網(wǎng)還有一個與Facebook的不同之處也十分有趣：人人的收入只有42%來自廣告,，倒是有45%的收入來自在線游戲,。從這點看來，比起Facebook,，人人網(wǎng)倒更像社交游戲公司Zynga,。不過不管怎么說，人人都是一家蒸蒸日上的社交網(wǎng)絡(luò)公司,。
????簡而言之,，好消息是人人網(wǎng)是Facebook的成功版本，未來幾年內(nèi)還會繼續(xù)增長,。下面說說壞消息,。
????也正是因為這兩個原因，人人網(wǎng)的市值會變得很高,。假設(shè)人人的IPO價格為承銷商給出的每股（確切的說是美國存托股份）9—11美元這一價格區(qū)間的中間價,，那么經(jīng)過此次IPO，人人的市值將達到40億美元,。人人網(wǎng)去年的營收入為7650萬美元,，營業(yè)利潤為770萬美元。也就是說這次IPO的股價營收比為52,，而股價與營業(yè)利潤比為519.（而相比之下,，谷歌去年大多數(shù)時候的股價營收比都在5.5至6.5之間徘徊，同時谷歌2010年的市值與營業(yè)利潤比為15.6）,。
????而且人人可能會變得更加昂貴,。人人IPO的承銷商隊伍包括摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）、德意志銀行（Deutsche Bank）和瑞信（Credit Suisse）等投行,。這些承銷商擁有一項超額發(fā)行權(quán),，如果需求很高的話，他們有權(quán)額外銷售800萬股,。此外如果需求真的很高,，人人可以略微調(diào)高IPO的美國存托股票單價，而這種情況通常發(fā)生在最受追捧的IPO身上,。無論超額銷售也好,，調(diào)高美國存托股票單價也好，一旦股份開始交易,，這兩種做法都會使人人的市值遠遠超過50億美元,。
????在其他市場上，IPO的股價與銷售額之比達到50,，一定會讓業(yè)界笑掉大牙,。但在美國市場上，人人的IPO卻很可能讓許多投資人心癢難搔,。這是因為Facebook的股票只在二級市場上交易,，因此這些無緣Facebook的投資人可能將目光轉(zhuǎn)向人人網(wǎng)。在非上市股票交易平臺SharesPost上,，F(xiàn)acebook的交易市值已經(jīng)接近800億美元,，是該公司報告的2010年營收入（20億美元）的40倍,。
????人人網(wǎng)正在利用此次IPO在美國股市上大肆散發(fā)其股份，另一方面,，華爾街卻似乎把人人的IPO看成了一個試驗氣球,。與潘朵拉（Pandora）或LinkedIn的上市相比，人人的IPO更像是為明年的市場定調(diào)的一次網(wǎng)絡(luò)公司IPO,。它甚至可以看成Facebook掛牌上市的預(yù)演,。
????如果投資人真的排隊購買人人網(wǎng)的股票，并且人人網(wǎng)的市值的確節(jié)節(jié)高升,，那么這將給極為有利可圖的Facebook IPO鋪平道路,。而且現(xiàn)在許多承銷商都緊盯著主打社交網(wǎng)絡(luò)牌的初創(chuàng)公司，人人IPO的成功也會讓承銷商堅信這些公司的確有盈利前景,。不過一次好的IPO需要的不僅是增長和贏利能力,，它還需要一個符合常理的價格。
????譯者：樸成奎 |
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????A few years ago, a cynical editor I knew was fond of challenging reporters to write a credible and printable headline combining the words "sex," "iPhone" and "Obama" - three of the sweetest pieces of linkbait at the time. As far as I know, no one ever followed through.
????Recently, we've seen another trifecta of key words that is almost as alluring: "IPO," "China" and "Facebook." As in, "The Facebook of China files for an IPO." Such headlines started appearing last Friday, when RenRen, a Beijing-based social network with 117 million users, filed for an initial public offering on the New York Stock Exchange.
????But can RenRen credibly be called the Facebook of China? And more importantly, given the growing and seemingly insatiable appetite for profitable social-media startups, is RenRen a viable IPO candidate? After a read through the company's prospectus, the initial answer to both question seems to be, Yes.
????Like Facebook, RenRen started out a social network that encouraged people to use their real identities, then added social games and e-commerce features for outside businesses. And like Facebook, its platform is open to developers creating third-party apps and it offers a Connect program letting users share content from more than 600 partner sites.
????In fact, in some ways RenRen resembles Facebook so much that it frets in the risk-factors section of its prospectus about patent litigation. After noting that Facebook has a number of social networking patents, RenRen said that "there may be patents issued or pending that are held by others that relate to certain aspects of our technologies, products, business methods or services."
????Facebook has been blocked in China, except for the 400,000 or so accounts set up through end runs like virtual private networks. So RenRen's growth has been rapid. In 2010, its revenue rose 64% to $76.5 million after more than tripling in 2009. Growth should continue for some time: According to comScore, 38% of China's internet users visited social network sites in April 2010, versus 81% in the U.S.
????RenRen's users are active. In March, some 31 million people logged in, spending an average of seven hours on the site during the month. To date, they have posted an aggregate 2.9 billion photos, 249 million blogs and 20.8 billion comments or reviews.
????Another interesting difference from Facebook, only 42% of RenRen's revenue is coming from ads. An even larger portion, 45%, come from online games, so in that sense RenRen is more Zynga than Facebook. But either way, it's a thriving social networking company.
????In short, the good news is RenRen is a successful version of Facebook, one poised for years of growth. Now for the bad news.
????For both of those reasons, RenRen is going to be expensive. The company's IPO is valuing the company at $4 billion, assuming it debuts in the middle of the $9-$11 per share (ADS to be accurate) range underwriters have given the company. RenRen had $76.5 million in revenue last year and an operating profit of $7.7 million. So the IPO will have a price-to-revenue ratio of 52 and a price-to-operating profit ratio of 519. (For comparison, Google's price-to-revenue ratio has been hovering around 5.5-6.5 for most of the last year and its market-cap-to-operating-profit-ratio using data for 2010 is 15.6.)
????And RenRen could get even pricier. Underwriters – led by Morgan Stanley, Deutsche Bank and Credit Suisse – have a greenshoe option to sell another 8 million shares if demand is high. And, if demand is really high, it can ratchet up the price per ADS of the IPO, which often happens with the most sought-after offerings. Both moves could leave RenRen's market value well north of $5 billion by the time the shares start trading.
????In a different market, a price-sales ratio of 50 would be laughed out of the IPO pipeline. But in this one, it could be so much catnip to investors who have been shut out of Facebook shares traded on private secondary markets. Facebook shares on SharesPost have been trading close to a $80 billion valuation, or 40 times its reported $2 billion revenue in 2010.
????Even as RenRen is using this IPO to float its shares into the U.S. market, Wall Street seems to be using it to float a trial balloon. More so than Pandora or LinkedIn, RenRen could be the web IPO that sets the market's tone for the next year. It could come to be seen as a kind of test run for Facebook itself.
????If investors line up for RenRen's shares, high valuations and all, it could pave the way for an obscenely lucrative Facebook offering. And it would offer evidence to underwriters of a deep hunger for any social-network-themed startup with a promise of profits. But a good IPO needs more than growth and profitability, it needs a price in sync with common sense. |
