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????但隨著未來(lái)幾周,，對(duì)這次天災(zāi)的規(guī)模有全面的了解之后,，其對(duì)日本不穩(wěn)定的經(jīng)濟(jì)和捉襟見(jiàn)肘的財(cái)政狀況的影響（包括對(duì)市場(chǎng)的影響）將開(kāi)始增大。

????首先,，來(lái)看看實(shí)際情況,。日本有史以來(lái)最大的里氏8.9級(jí)地震已導(dǎo)致數(shù)百人喪生。一家煉油廠起火,，核反應(yīng)堆附近的居民被迫疏散,。

????據(jù)CMA Market Data公司稱(chēng)，地震發(fā)生后,，日本股市出現(xiàn)下跌，針對(duì)日本債務(wù)違約的投保成本上升6%,。由于投資者減持風(fēng)險(xiǎn)資產(chǎn),，債券價(jià)格上漲。

????與近幾周引發(fā)市場(chǎng)騷亂的高油價(jià)一樣,，上周五的地震已經(jīng)再次提醒我們,，老齡化、增長(zhǎng)緩慢,、債務(wù)纏身的經(jīng)濟(jì)體在災(zāi)難面前是多么脆弱,，即便全球經(jīng)濟(jì)正處于擴(kuò)張時(shí)期。

????來(lái)自凱投宏觀（Capital Economics）的朱利安?杰索普這樣寫(xiě)道：“日本的經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇已經(jīng)失去動(dòng)力,，而重建成本對(duì)政府龐大的債務(wù)負(fù)擔(dān)而言將更是雪上加霜,。”他寫(xiě)道,，最新一屆日本政府早就該制定計(jì)劃讓政府支出更為可持續(xù),，但是這次大地震可能會(huì)令政府感到更加困難,。

????經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家對(duì)地震消息的回應(yīng)主要集中在兩個(gè)問(wèn)題上：損害程度將有多嚴(yán)重，以及重建將給這個(gè)已經(jīng)捉襟見(jiàn)肘的國(guó)家?guī)?lái)多大的負(fù)擔(dān),。

????正如災(zāi)難發(fā)生之后的一貫情況,，媒體對(duì)災(zāi)難的報(bào)道總是不一致的，一些評(píng)論家認(rèn)為受災(zāi)地區(qū)占日本經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)值的1/6之多,，而其他評(píng)論家認(rèn)為這一數(shù)字或許應(yīng)該是1/3,。 考慮到這次災(zāi)難的規(guī)模和性質(zhì)，可想而知復(fù)蘇將會(huì)是多么艱難,。

????IHS Global Insight的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家在上周五一份報(bào)告中這樣寫(xiě)道：“盡管日本產(chǎn)業(yè)的主要中心似乎未受影響,，但基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施的破壞程度將非常嚴(yán)重。自然災(zāi)害還可能破壞這個(gè)國(guó)家新生的經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇,，同時(shí)由于應(yīng)急響應(yīng)費(fèi)用將使日本政府開(kāi)支猛增,，日本公共債務(wù)不斷膨脹的問(wèn)題會(huì)更加嚴(yán)重?！?/p>

????地震給這個(gè)業(yè)已搖搖欲墜的經(jīng)濟(jì)體還帶來(lái)另一個(gè)打擊,。 日本在經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退中起起伏伏已長(zhǎng)達(dá)二十年之久，按某種衡量標(biāo)準(zhǔn)來(lái)看,，該國(guó)的債務(wù)負(fù)擔(dān)是其年經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)值的兩倍以上,，這一比率僅次于津巴布韋。

????這正是日本被普遍視為經(jīng)濟(jì)災(zāi)難隨時(shí)會(huì)發(fā)生的國(guó)家的原因,，盡管由于高收入,、高生活標(biāo)準(zhǔn)以及貿(mào)易順差，日本在國(guó)內(nèi)就能完全滿足其融資需求,。

????與此同時(shí),，購(gòu)買(mǎi)長(zhǎng)期疲軟的日本股票已成為2011年最佳投資主題之一，依據(jù)的假設(shè)是全球經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇不均衡以及通脹不斷上升將推高股票價(jià)值,。這一觀點(diǎn)將在今后數(shù)周接受?chē)?yán)峻的考驗(yàn),。

????不管怎樣， 沒(méi)人知道財(cái)政拐點(diǎn)會(huì)出現(xiàn)在今年,、明年,，還是今后幾年（這種可能性更大）。關(guān)于建筑物并未大面積倒塌的早期報(bào)告或許能帶來(lái)一絲希望：地震并不意味著財(cái)政危機(jī)很快就會(huì)出現(xiàn),。

????日本大和住銀投信投資顧問(wèn)公司（Daiwa SBI）的首席市場(chǎng)策略師Soichiro Monji表示：“盡管受到的地面沖擊比我之前所經(jīng)歷的任何一次都要大,，但幸運(yùn)地是，我們沒(méi)有看到建筑物,、道路或橋梁倒塌,。”

????But as the scale of the tragedy comes into fuller view in coming weeks, the impact on Japan's unsteady economy and stretched fiscal position – and the implications for markets -- will start to weigh heavier.

????First, the facts. The quake, at 8.9 on the Richter scale Japan's biggest ever, has killed hundreds of people. An oil refinery caught fire and residents near a nuclear reactor were forced to evacuate.

????Japanese stock markets dropped and the cost of insuring against a default on Japanese debt rose 6%, according to CMA Market Data. Bond prices rose as investors pulled back from risky assets.

????Like the oil spike that roiled markets in recent weeks, Friday's quake offers yet another reminder of how vulnerable aging, slow-growing, debt-burdened economies are to a shock even in what is supposed to be a period of global economic expansion.

????"Japan's economic recovery has lost momentum and a large part of the reconstruction costs will add to the government's significant debt burden," writes Julian Jessop at Capital Economics. He writes that the disaster could make it even more painful for the latest Japanese government to take long overdue action to produce a plan that would put spending on a more sustainable track.

????Economists responding to the news of the quake focused mostly on two issues: how bad the damage stands to be, and how big a burden rebuilding stands to impose on an already stretched nation.

????As is always the case in the aftermath of a disaster, reports were mixed, with some commentators saying the affected region is responsible for as much as a sixth of Japanese economic output and others putting the figure at perhaps a third of that. The scale and nature of the destruction will naturally have a lot to say about how daunting recovery is.

????"Although the main concentration of industrial Japan appears unaffected, the extent of the infrastructural damage will be severe," IHS Global Insight economists wrote in a note Friday. "The natural disaster could also upset the country's nascent economic recovery while exacerbating the country's ballooning public debt issues, as spending by the Tokyo government will surge to meet emergency response costs."

????The quake strikes another blow at an economy that was already reeling. Japan has been in and out of recession for two decades, and its debt load is more than twice the size of its annual economic output, by one measure -- a ratio exceeded only by, um, Zimbabwe.

????That's why despite its high income and standard of living and a trade surplus that allows it to fund its borrowing needs almost exclusively at home, Japan is widely viewed as an economic disaster waiting to happen.

????At the same time, buying long depressed Japanese stocks has emerged as one of the top investment themes of 2011, on the assumption that an uneven global recovery and rising inflation will push up equity values. That idea will be sorely tested in coming weeks.

????In any case, no one has any idea whether the fiscal breaking point might come this year, next year or (more likely) years down the road. Early reports that building collapses weren't widespread perhaps offer some hope that the quake won't mean a near-term date with fiscal crisis.

????"Although the ground shocks were bigger than any that I have experienced before, we have fortunately not seen any collapse of buildings, roads or bridges," said Soichiro Monji, Daiwa SBI's chief market strategist.