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專欄 - 蘋果2_0

股價(jià)沉浮背后“看不見的手”露出原形

Philip Elmer-DeWitt 2013年12月19日

蘋果(Apple)公司內(nèi)部流傳著一個(gè)老笑話,那就是史蒂夫·喬布斯周圍是一片“現(xiàn)實(shí)扭曲力場(chǎng)”:你離他太近的話,就會(huì)相信他所說(shuō)的話,。蘋果的數(shù)百萬(wàn)用戶中已經(jīng)有不少成了該公司的“信徒”,而很多蘋果投資者也賺得盆滿缽滿,。不過(guò),,Elmer-DeWitt認(rèn)為,在報(bào)道蘋果公司時(shí)有點(diǎn)懷疑精神不是壞事,。聽他的應(yīng)該沒(méi)錯(cuò),。要知道,他自從1982年就開始報(bào)道蘋果,、觀察史蒂夫·喬布斯經(jīng)營(yíng)該公司,。
12月9日之前,美國(guó)股市不足100股的交易都不會(huì)向普通投資者公布,。而45%的蘋果股票交易都不足100股,,在此之前,只有高頻交易者才能掌握這些交易的具體情況,。以前,,這種信息不對(duì)等一直是某一部分股民搶占投資先機(jī)的利器。

????不少蘋果投資者認(rèn)為這也許能解釋蘋果股價(jià)自2007年以來(lái)的諸多奇怪現(xiàn)象。iPhone的上市時(shí)間和美國(guó)證交會(huì)全國(guó)市場(chǎng)體系的公布時(shí)間驚人的一致,,而高頻電腦交易者恰好可以利用該體系大發(fā)橫財(cái),。蘋果股價(jià)呈現(xiàn)冰火兩重天——要么高得嚇人,要么低得絕望——但股票成交量又遠(yuǎn)低于理論預(yù)測(cè)值,。無(wú)形的零散交易或許能解釋這種現(xiàn)象,。

????新的報(bào)告制度會(huì)對(duì)普通蘋果投資者造成怎樣的影響?

????高頻交易批評(píng)人士,,Nanex的亨賽德說(shuō):“以后會(huì)出現(xiàn)下面這些情況:首先,,那樣原本依靠信息不對(duì)稱的投資將無(wú)以為繼,。這本身是件好事,也不會(huì)讓投資者難辦,。其次,,通過(guò)了解零散交易的走向,零售應(yīng)用程序?qū)⒛軌蚋玫牡卣莆展┬璧娜置婷??!?/p>

????亨賽德總結(jié)說(shuō):“信息不對(duì)稱向來(lái)對(duì)市場(chǎng)不利,因?yàn)樗鼤?huì)導(dǎo)致一些市場(chǎng)參與者的退出,。而市場(chǎng)參與者越具有多樣性,,市場(chǎng)的彈性就越大?!保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng))

????譯者:項(xiàng)航??

????Some Apple investors believe this might explain a lot of the strange behavior they've observed in Apple since 2007 -- when the launch of the iPhone coincided with the promulgation of the SEC's Regulation NMS, which created the national electronic market system that high-frequency traders exploit. Apple's share price has moved both ways -- to extraordinary highs and confidence-shattering lows -- at volumes much lower than theory would predict. Invisible odd lot trades could explain the discrepancy.

????How will the new reporting regime affect the average Apple investor?

????"Several things will happen," says Nanex's Hunsader, a critic of high-frequency trading. "First, games that used to rely on that asymmetric information will no longer work. That in itself is good, with no effort on the part of the investor. Second, it will allow retail applications to better detect the supply/demand picture, etc. By knowing where these odd-lot trades are executing for example."

????"Asymmetric information is always bad for the market," Hunsader concludes, "because it drives away some participants from the market. The most resilient market is one with the widest diversity of participants."??

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