花旗：中國媒體可能削掉蘋果130億美元
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????中國媒體對美國蘋果公司（Apple）發(fā)起的“聲討運動”已經(jīng)進(jìn)入第三周。本周一,，花旗集團(tuán)（Citi）分析師格蘭?楊對蘋果公司因此而遭受的潛在損失金額進(jìn)行了估算,。他指出，蘋果公司并不是第一家在中國受到針對性負(fù)面報道的外國公司。去年12月,，央視播出了對百勝餐飲集團(tuán)【（YUM brands）肯德基品牌部分】的類似調(diào)查報道,。受此打擊，百盛今年前兩個月銷售額同比下跌了20%,。而在1999年央視報道了東芝（Toshiba）對中國消費者和美國消費者實行的差別對待后,，這家日本制造商丟掉了在中國筆記本電腦銷量第一的地位。 ????為估算當(dāng)前這場聲討運動可能給蘋果公司帶來的損失,，格蘭?楊參考了惠普公司（Hewlett-Packard）在中國遭遇的類似慘痛經(jīng)歷： ????2010年,，惠普公司遭遇了類似的打擊，導(dǎo)致它在中國個人電腦市場的份額下滑了大約50%,。2012年,，蘋果公司在中國賣出的產(chǎn)品約占其總銷售額的16%；過去兩年（2010 -2012年）中,，蘋果約24%的收入增長都來自于中國業(yè)務(wù),。如果蘋果在中國損失50%的市場份額，它的收入將縮減大約131億美元,，合每股收益減少3.62美元,。此前，我們對蘋果公司在市場份額方面的霸主地位已經(jīng)心存種種擔(dān)憂,，它在中國受到的職責(zé)更加讓我們擔(dān)心,，因此我們眼下還是不推薦這只股票。 ????資深分析師理查德?加德勒此前離開花旗集團(tuán)已經(jīng)導(dǎo)致該行對蘋果公司的追蹤出現(xiàn)偏空氛圍,，格蘭?楊在該報告中的評論更加看淡,，遠(yuǎn)不止是“我們早就說過會這樣”而已。 ????他寫道：“雖然多頭們對蘋果公司的發(fā)展機(jī)遇仍然保持堅定樂觀,，但是負(fù)面報道的打擊將影響這家公司與中國移動（China Mobile）簽訂合作協(xié)議以進(jìn)一步把握中國機(jī)遇的能力,。但更重要的是，我們相信,，此事對蘋果品牌價值的損害可能會帶來更加隱性和長期的影響,。盡管其他機(jī)構(gòu)普遍對蘋果公司給出了正面評級，我們還是不推薦眼下買入該股,。我們維持2012年12月16日把它降為‘中性’的評級,。” ????蘋果公司股價周一報收于428.91美元,，下跌了13.75美元（跌幅3.11%）,，為一周內(nèi)第五個下跌的交易日。 |
????Citi's Glen Yeung on Monday tried to put a dollar figure on the potential cost to Apple (AAPL) of China's state-sponsored propaganda campaign, now entering its third week. ????Apple, he points out, is not the first foreign company to be targeted by the People's Republic. YUM brands (part of KFC) saw sales fall 20% year over year in January and February after it was hit by a similar Chinese TV investigative report last December. Toshiba lost its No. 1 spot in Chinese notebook sales after state-run media reported in 1999 that the Japanese manufacturer had different policies for Chinese and American customers. ????To calculate the damage the current campaign could do to Apple, Yeung uses Hewlett-Packard's (HPQ) experience as a template: ????Recall that a similar campaign hit HP in 2010, leading to a ~50% reduction in their PC share in China. Apple derives ~16% of its sales in China (CY12) and China accounted for ~24% of Apple's revenue growth in the past 2 years (2010-2012). If Apple were to lose as much as 50% of their China market share, this would equate to ~$13.1B/$3.62 in revenues/EPS. We add this to our list of concerns about Apple's market share dominance and still do not recommend the shares at this time. ????Continuing the bearish tone that entered Citi's Apple coverage with the departure of veteran analyst Richard Gardner, there's more than a whiff of "we told you so" in Yeung's remarks. ????"While bulls remain stubbornly optimistic about Apple's opportunities," he writes, "these attacks put a wrench into Apple's ability to strike a deal with China Mobile to open opportunities further in China. More importantly, however, we believe the undermining of Apple's brand value can have a more insipid and long-lasting impact. Despite overwhelmingly positive ratings from our peers, we do not recommend Apple shares at this time and stand by our 12/16/12 downgrade to Neutral." ????Apple turned in its fifth down day in a week, closing Monday at $428.91, off $13.75 (3.11%). |
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