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專欄 - 蘋果2_0

iPhone 5可能提前登陸大陸

Philip Elmer-DeWitt 2012年11月13日

蘋果(Apple)公司內(nèi)部流傳著一個(gè)老笑話,,那就是史蒂夫·喬布斯周圍是一片“現(xiàn)實(shí)扭曲力場(chǎng)”:你離他太近的話,,就會(huì)相信他所說(shuō)的話。蘋果的數(shù)百萬(wàn)用戶中已經(jīng)有不少成了該公司的“信徒”,,而很多蘋果投資者也賺得盆滿缽滿,。不過(guò),Elmer-DeWitt認(rèn)為,,在報(bào)道蘋果公司時(shí)有點(diǎn)懷疑精神不是壞事,。聽(tīng)他的應(yīng)該沒(méi)錯(cuò)。要知道,,他自從1982年就開(kāi)始報(bào)道蘋果,、觀察史蒂夫·喬布斯經(jīng)營(yíng)該公司,。
中國(guó)三大移動(dòng)運(yùn)營(yíng)商中的兩家——中國(guó)電信和中國(guó)聯(lián)通兩家公司的老總在十八大期間接受外媒采訪時(shí)稱,公司有望在11月底,、或12月初推出iPhone 5,。

????

????上周五正值中國(guó)共產(chǎn)黨第十八次全國(guó)代表大會(huì)召開(kāi),,中國(guó)兩大移動(dòng)運(yùn)營(yíng)商的董事長(zhǎng)在非正式會(huì)議期間接受采訪時(shí)都表示,,他們公司推出蘋果(Apple)iPhone 5的時(shí)間可能會(huì)比此前預(yù)計(jì)的早。

????中國(guó)電信(China Telecom)董事長(zhǎng)王曉初向《華爾街日?qǐng)?bào)》(Wall Street Journal)表示,,該公司最晚將于12月初推出iPhone 5,。

????中國(guó)聯(lián)通(China Unicom)董事長(zhǎng)常小兵則意識(shí)到目前仍有一道監(jiān)管障礙需要跨越,他對(duì)《華爾街日?qǐng)?bào)》的回答更謹(jǐn)慎:“我們希望在今年推出iPhone 5,,但我說(shuō)的不管用,。”

????蘋果公司首席執(zhí)行官蒂姆·庫(kù)克在公司10月份的電話會(huì)議上曾表示,,預(yù)計(jì)iPhone 5將在今年年底前登陸中國(guó),。如果iPhone 5真的能在11月底、或12月初登陸全球最大的手機(jī)市場(chǎng)——中國(guó),,蘋果2013年第一財(cái)季的營(yíng)收將有望獲得大幅提升,。

????與此同時(shí),加拿大皇家銀行(RBC Capital)分析師阿米特·德萊納里在一份報(bào)告中還為客戶分析了一種情況:如果蘋果最終與中國(guó)移動(dòng)市場(chǎng)的“老大”,、擁有6.99億用戶的世界第一大移動(dòng)運(yùn)營(yíng)商——中國(guó)移動(dòng)達(dá)成協(xié)議,,可能會(huì)造成怎樣的影響。德萊納里預(yù)計(jì),,蘋果與中國(guó)移動(dòng)有望于2013年最終達(dá)成協(xié)議,,甚至可能在今年的中國(guó)農(nóng)歷新年之前。他寫道:“假設(shè)iPhone在3G用戶中的市場(chǎng)滲透率為13%,,我們估算與中國(guó)移動(dòng)的合作會(huì)使蘋果的年度每股收益增加約3美元,,或者說(shuō)推動(dòng)它的股價(jià)上漲45美元?!?/p>

????譯者:項(xiàng)航

????In remarks made Friday on the sidelines of the Chinese Communist Party's 18th Party Congress in Beijing the chairmen of two of the country's leading mobile carriers indicated that they may be selling Apple's (AAPL) iPhone 5 even earlier than expected.

????China Telecom's (CHA) Wang Xiaochu told the?Wall Street Journal?that the phone should be available in early December, if not sooner.

????China Unicom's (CHU)?Chang Xiaobin, aware that there is still one more regulatory hurdle to mount, was more circumspect.?"We hope to offer it this year," he told the?Journal. "But what I say doesn't matter."

????During Apple's October conference call, CEO Tim Cook told analysts that he expected China to get the device before the end of the year. A late November or early December launch in the world's largest mobile phone market could have material effect on the company's fiscal Q1 2013 earnings.

????Meanwhile, RBC Capital's Amit?Daryanani issued a note to clients on the impact of an eventual deal with China's "800 pound gorilla": China Mobile (CHL),?with 699 million subscribers?the country's -- and the world's -- largest mobile carrier. He expects Apple and China Mobile to finally come to terms in 2013 -- perhaps even before Chinese New Year.

????"Assuming a 13% iPhone penetration rate with 3G customers," he writes, "we estimate that the addition of China Mobile would add ~$3 to Apple's annual EPS or $45 to its stock price. "

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