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????我們正在經(jīng)歷并購行業(yè)的新常態(tài),？ ????6個(gè)月前，我們聽說第一季度并購活動(dòng)低迷只是假日后遺癥,。3個(gè)月前,，我們聽說第二季度并購活動(dòng)低迷是特殊情況引發(fā)的異常現(xiàn)象——后續(xù)交易很多,，只是還沒最終完成,。但如今第三季度也即將結(jié)束，下行趨勢仍然毫無緩和跡象,。 ????湯森路透社（Thomson Reuters）發(fā)布的初步數(shù)據(jù)顯示，2012年第三季度全球并購活動(dòng)同比下降了18.3%,。今年迄今交易量已經(jīng)大降38%,，其中美國劇減近45%。 ????實(shí)際上,，差不多每個(gè)相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)組都很難看,。今年迄今，歐洲并購量已降至十年低點(diǎn),，季度環(huán)比下降約42%,。美國并購活動(dòng)也處于九年來的最低點(diǎn)，而亞洲則出現(xiàn)了2005年以來的最低水平,。 ????唯一或許稱得上亮點(diǎn)的是私募股權(quán)支持的交易,，這部分交易第三季度環(huán)比增長了16%。但即便這樣,，如果將時(shí)間段拉長,，形勢也不容樂觀，今年迄今交易量下降了10%,。 ????不錯(cuò),，2012年還剩下一個(gè)季度的時(shí)間可以扭轉(zhuǎn)局勢。并購業(yè)內(nèi)人士堅(jiān)稱,，他們和過去一樣忙碌,，隨著公開市場股價(jià)上漲,，企業(yè)更愿意進(jìn)行買賣。希望永遠(yuǎn)存在……或者即便不是永遠(yuǎn),，至少也能再撐上三個(gè)月,。 |
????Are we experiencing a new normal for mergers and acquisitions? ????Six months ago, we heard that low Q1 M&A activity was just a holiday hangover. Three months ago, we heard that low Q2 M&A activity was an anomaly -- and that the pipeline was stuffed with transactions that hadn't quite been able to cross the finish line. But as the third quarter now comes to a close, the downward trend shows no sign of abating. ????Preliminary data from Thomson Reuters shows an 18.3% decline in global M&A activity, when comparing Q3 2012 to Q3 2011. Year-to-date volume is down a whopping 38%, including nearly 45% in the U.S. ????In fact, the numbers are rough in virtually every related data set. Year-to-date European M&A is at a 10-year low, and quarter-over-quarter volume fell approximately 42%. U.S. activity is at a nine-year low, while Asia is reporting its weakest mark since 2005. ????The only potential bright-spot is for private equity-backed deals, which climbed 16% in Q3 from the prior quarter. But even there the larger picture is cloudy, with year-to-date activity down 10 percent. ????Yes, 2012 still has another quarter to turn things around. And deal pros insist that they are as busy as they've ever been, with rising public equities prices making corporations more willing to buy and sell. Hope springs eternal... Or, if not eternal, at least it springs for another three months. |
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