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??? 投資銀行Piper Jaffray公司的分析師吉恩?蒙斯特借鑒傳統(tǒng)媒體和網(wǎng)絡(luò)媒體所用的常規(guī)手法，把自己對(duì)蘋果公司（Apple）的看法歸納為10大要點(diǎn),。

??? 上周四,，蘋果股價(jià)收盤報(bào)565.32美元。而現(xiàn)在,，蒙斯特公開發(fā)表了自己對(duì)蘋果股價(jià)的預(yù)言——兩年內(nèi)將達(dá)到每股1,000美元,。這場好戲?qū)?huì)如何上演，請看他的如下10條觀點(diǎn)：

1. 雄心勃勃的產(chǎn)品路線圖,。蒙斯特預(yù)計(jì),，未來12個(gè)月里，蘋果將密集推出一系列新產(chǎn)品和產(chǎn)品更新,，包括新款iPhone,、筆記本電腦Mac、新iPad和蘋果電視,。

2. 大幅升級(jí)iPhone 5,。他預(yù)測，這一幕將在10月揭曉,，用他的話來說,，那將是“2012年最盛大的消費(fèi)電子產(chǎn)品發(fā)布，也是智能手機(jī)史上最大的一次產(chǎn)品升級(jí)”。

3. 2013年推出蘋果電視,。對(duì)此蒙斯特并未失去信心,。他預(yù)計(jì)，蘋果電視將于今年12月推出,，定價(jià)在1,500美元至2,000美元,，屏幕尺寸在42英寸到55英寸之間。

4. 運(yùn)營商將繼續(xù)提供補(bǔ)貼,。這種狀況至少還會(huì)持續(xù)兩三年,。盡管不斷有人議論，要降低運(yùn)營商對(duì)iPhone的補(bǔ)貼,，但運(yùn)營商喜歡賣蘋果手機(jī)所帶來的低流失率,，喜歡蘋果手機(jī)輕松大賣的本事，而且每賣出一部手機(jī)還不用向蘋果公司返利,。

5. 高達(dá)40%的毛利率,。在科技類公司中，蘋果的利潤率一直是眾人垂涎的對(duì)象,。蒙斯特預(yù)計(jì)，這種高利潤率至少還能維持三年,。

6. “心臟移植”戰(zhàn)略,。指的是蘋果公司要盡快淘汰舊產(chǎn)品，精簡產(chǎn)品線,，獲得最佳零部件采購價(jià)格（這些都將轉(zhuǎn)化為更高的利潤）,。

7. 中國的接受曲線。在美國,，iPhone 4S第二財(cái)季的銷售下降了34%,。蒙斯特認(rèn)為，這種情形在中國市場不會(huì)發(fā)生,。iPhone和iPad在中國才剛剛起步,。

8. 平板電腦的銷量將超過個(gè)人電腦。蒙斯特預(yù)測,，到2020年,，平板電腦的銷售將超過個(gè)人電腦，iPad將繼續(xù)統(tǒng)治市場,。

9. 企業(yè)銷售,。蘋果不會(huì)改變重點(diǎn)。它將繼續(xù)依靠消費(fèi)者市場推動(dòng)面向企業(yè)市場的銷售——至少iPhone和iPad這兩種產(chǎn)品將繼續(xù)維持這一策略,。Mac則不會(huì)獲得這種重視,，因?yàn)榕c微軟公司不同（Microsoft），蘋果不會(huì)一直為舊版操作系統(tǒng)提供支持，直至其面臨淘汰,。

10. 科技界規(guī)模最大的注冊用戶基礎(chǔ),。盡管蘋果的服務(wù)業(yè)務(wù)（iTunes、蘋果商店等）僅僅只做到了收支平衡,，但這些服務(wù)已使其硬件平臺(tái)規(guī)模龐大,，極富黏性。用戶一旦購買了某個(gè)蘋果產(chǎn)品,，從此就會(huì)一發(fā)而不可收,。

??? 譯者：清遠(yuǎn)

??? Borrowing one of the oldest devices in print and online journalism, Piper Jaffray's Gene Munster has boiled his thoughts about Apple (AAPL) into something like a top 10 list.

??? Munster is on record predicting that the company's share price -- which closed at $565.32 Thursday -- will hit $1,000 within two years. Here are his 10 ideas about how it gets there:

1. An aggressive product roadmap. Munster expects a rapid sequence of new products and product updates over the next 12 months, including a new iPhone, new Macs, a new iPad and a TV.

2. A huge iPhone 5 upgrade. He predicts it will happen in October and be, in his words, "the biggest consumer electronics product launch of 2012 as well as the biggest device upgrade cycle in smartphone history."

3. Apple television in 2013. Munster hasn't lost the faith. He expects it to be announced this December and priced between $1,500 and $2,000 for screen sizes ranging from 42" to 55".

4. Carrier subsidies to continue. For at least another 2-3 years. Despite the chatter about reducing the subsidies they pay for the iPhone, carriers like the low churn rates, the fact that the device sells itself and that they don't have to pay Apple a bounty for each sale.

5. 40% gross margins. Apple's profit margins are the envy of the tech sector, and Munster expects them to continue for at least three more years.

6. "Heart transplant" strategy. This is Apple's strategy of eliminating old products as quickly as possible, streamlining its product line and securing the best component prices possible (which translates to higher margins).

7. China's adoption curve. In the U.S., iPhone sales slowed down 34% in the second quarter of iPhone 4S sales. Munster doesn't think that will happen in China, where the iPhone and iPad are just taking off.

8. Tablets will be bigger than PCs. By 2020, Munster estimates, tablets will be outselling personal computers and the iPad will still dominate the market.

9. Enterprise sales. Apple won't change its spots; it will continue to rely on consumer adoption to drive adoption in the corporate market -- at least for iPhones and iPads. Macs not so much, because unlike Microsoft (MSFT), Apple doesn't support old operating systems until the end of time.

10. The largest registered user base in the tech world. Although Apple runs its services (iTunes, App Store, etc.) at just above break-even, those services make Apple's hardware platforms both very big and very sticky. Once you give Apple your credit card number, you tend to stick around.