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專欄 - 蘋果2_0

是誰(shuí)讓蘋果市值蒸發(fā)了960億美元?

Philip Elmer-DeWitt 2012年05月22日

蘋果(Apple)公司內(nèi)部流傳著一個(gè)老笑話,,那就是史蒂夫·喬布斯周圍是一片“現(xiàn)實(shí)扭曲力場(chǎng)”:你離他太近的話,,就會(huì)相信他所說的話。蘋果的數(shù)百萬用戶中已經(jīng)有不少成了該公司的“信徒”,,而很多蘋果投資者也賺得盆滿缽滿,。不過,Elmer-DeWitt認(rèn)為,,在報(bào)道蘋果公司時(shí)有點(diǎn)懷疑精神不是壞事,。聽他的應(yīng)該沒錯(cuò)。要知道,,他自從1982年就開始報(bào)道蘋果,、觀察史蒂夫·喬布斯經(jīng)營(yíng)該公司。
上周在曼哈頓舉辦了一次有很多對(duì)沖基金經(jīng)理參加的會(huì)議,,與會(huì)者的言論直接影響著蘋果股價(jià)的變化,。會(huì)上當(dāng)有人放出看空蘋果的言論時(shí),蘋果股價(jià)也相應(yīng)大跌,。之后另一位發(fā)言者對(duì)此進(jìn)行了反駁,,蘋果股價(jià)相應(yīng)地也大幅提升。

?

杰弗里?岡德拉奇,。路透社(Reuters)

??? 請(qǐng)看上圖,,5月16日下午3點(diǎn)后不久,蘋果(Apple)股價(jià)一度跌至540美元多一點(diǎn),。

??? 差不多與此同時(shí),,DoubleLine Capital的杰弗里?岡德拉奇(即上圖中的基金經(jīng)理)正在曼哈頓對(duì)著一屋子的投資經(jīng)理大談看空蘋果,“我懷疑等到iPad 87出來時(shí),,還會(huì)有多少人會(huì)圍著一個(gè)街區(qū)轉(zhuǎn)圈排隊(duì)購(gòu)買”,。

??? See on the chart at right where Apple's (AAPL) share price dropped to just over $540 shortly after 3 p.m. Wednesday?

??? That corresponds roughly to when the fund manager pictured above left, DoubleLine Capital's Jeffrey Gundlach, told a room packed with investment managers that he was shorting Apple. "I just wonder how many people will queue up around the block for an iPad 87," he said.

戴維?埃因霍恩

??? 看到收盤前的快速拉升了嗎?這發(fā)生在第二位發(fā)言人Greenlight Capital的戴維?埃因霍恩講話之后,,Greenlight Capital以持有大量空頭頭寸而知名,。埃因霍恩認(rèn)為,岡德拉奇大錯(cuò)特錯(cuò),。如果蘋果每年都能推出一款熱銷產(chǎn)品,,就不會(huì)喪失其吸引力。根據(jù)《華爾街日?qǐng)?bào)》(Wall Street Journal)對(duì)此次會(huì)議的報(bào)道,,這是“假定蘋果是一家硬件公司,。但它并不是?!彼f,,“蘋果是一家軟件公司,。它的價(jià)值來自其iOS操作系統(tǒng)、App Store,、iTunes和iCloud,。”

??? 據(jù)埃因霍恩稱,,對(duì)沖基金持股僅占蘋果9.35億股的5%,,似乎這樣的持股比例不足以造成當(dāng)日蘋果股價(jià)的突然下挫。

??? 但管理這些基金的是那些對(duì)杠桿操作略知一二的經(jīng)理們,。

??? 因此,,如果你想弄明白是誰(shuí)讓蘋果股價(jià)從4月9日的歷史高點(diǎn)644美元下跌100多美元至5月16日的541.04美元——市值蒸發(fā)960億美元,或許可以先看看5月16日是哪些人參加了在林肯中心(Lincoln Center)艾弗瑞費(fèi)舍爾大廳(Avery Fisher Hall)舉辦的艾拉索恩年度投資研究會(huì)議(Ira Sohn Conference)探討市場(chǎng)狀況,,并為兒童癌癥研究籌集資金,。

??? See where the share price popped back up just before the closing bell? That happened after the next speaker, David Einhorn of Greenlight Capital, a hedge fund famous for taking very large short positions, said Grundlach was flat wrong. Apple won't lose its appeal if it stops making a new hit product every year. That "assumes that Apple is a hardware company. It's not," he said, according to the Wall Street Journal's account of the meeting. "Apple is a software company. Its value comes from iOS, the App Store, iTunes and iCloud."

??? According to Einhorn, hedge funds own only 5% of Apple's 935 million shares, as if to suggest that weren't enough to make a dent in the stock price.

??? But those funds are managed by guys who know a thing or two about leverage.

??? So if you are wondering who could have brought Apple's share price down more than $100 from its all-time high of $644 on April 9 to its low for the day of $541.04 -- carving $96 billion out of the company's market cap in the process -- you might start with the men who gathered Wednesday in Lincoln Center's Avery Fisher Hall for the Ira Sohn Conference to talk about the market and raise money for pediatric cancer research.

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