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專欄 - 蘋果2_0

中國電信下周預(yù)售iPhone 4S

Philip Elmer-DeWitt 2012年02月22日

蘋果(Apple)公司內(nèi)部流傳著一個(gè)老笑話,那就是史蒂夫·喬布斯周圍是一片“現(xiàn)實(shí)扭曲力場”:你離他太近的話,,就會相信他所說的話,。蘋果的數(shù)百萬用戶中已經(jīng)有不少成了該公司的“信徒”,而很多蘋果投資者也賺得盆滿缽滿,。不過,,Elmer-DeWitt認(rèn)為,,在報(bào)道蘋果公司時(shí)有點(diǎn)懷疑精神不是壞事。聽他的應(yīng)該沒錯(cuò),。要知道,,他自從1982年就開始報(bào)道蘋果、觀察史蒂夫·喬布斯經(jīng)營該公司,。
中國第三大運(yùn)營商及最大的Wi-Fi網(wǎng)絡(luò)商——中國電信即將發(fā)布iPhone 4S,。

????在上周舉辦的高盛技術(shù)大會(Goldman Sachs technology conference)上,,蘋果(Apple)首席執(zhí)行官蒂姆?庫克告訴聽眾:“我們非常,、非常關(guān)注中國市場?!?/p>

????本周一,,庫克所說的“關(guān)注”終于有了明顯的成果:中國電信(China Telecom)——中國第三大移動運(yùn)營商、最大的Wi-Fi網(wǎng)絡(luò)商以及固網(wǎng)提供商(總用戶數(shù)為2.16億)宣布,,將于3月9日正式發(fā)布iPhone 4S,,并從下周開始接受預(yù)訂。

????這樁交易究竟有多大,?為了給大家一個(gè)參照,,我們先來看看下面的數(shù)據(jù):上季度,美國電話電報(bào)公司(AT&T)售出了創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的740萬部iPhone,, Verizon和斯普林特(Sprint)的這一數(shù)字則分別是420萬和180萬,。

????"We've been very, very focused on China," Apple (AAPL) CEO Tim Cook told the audience at last week's Goldman Sachs technology conference.

????One result of that focus became clear on Monday, when China Telecom (CHA), China's No. 3 mobile carrier and No. 1 Wi-Fi and fixed-line provider (total subscribers: 216 million), announced that it will begin taking iPhone 4S preorders next week for sales starting March 9.

????How big a deal is this? To put it in perspective, AT&T (T) sold 7.4 million iPhones last quarter -- Apple's biggest ever -- Verizon (VZ) sold 4.2 million and Sprint (S) 1.8 million.

????截止今年1月,中國電信擁有3,870萬3G用戶,,其中大約1,500萬屬于高端用戶,,根據(jù)摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)最近發(fā)布的報(bào)告,這些人不但能夠輕松負(fù)擔(dān)iPhone費(fèi)用,,而且對iPhone極為熱衷,。(見上圖)

????中國第二大運(yùn)營商中國聯(lián)通(China Unicom)雖然擁有更多3G用戶(4,300萬),但其高端用戶數(shù)與中國電信大致相當(dāng),。根據(jù)摩根士丹利分析師利凱蒂?休伯蒂發(fā)布的報(bào)告,,五分之一的中國聯(lián)通用戶已經(jīng)購買了iPhone。她預(yù)計(jì)這一比例最終會長至六成以上,。

????不過,,蘋果至今未能染指中國市場最大的蛋糕。中國移動(China Mobile)是世界最大的運(yùn)營商,,擁有超過6億用戶,,與蘋果已進(jìn)行了多年的談判。數(shù)以百萬計(jì)的中國移動用戶正在其過時(shí)的2G網(wǎng)絡(luò)中使用越獄版iPhone,。不過,,蘋果目前還無法正式開展在中國移動的銷售,,除非它能為中國移動提供一款定制版的4G iPhone。

????休伯蒂預(yù)計(jì),,一旦蘋果完成定制工作——最早可能是今年第三季度,,屆時(shí)iPhone在中國市場的年銷量或?qū)⒚驮鲋?,000萬部。

????譯者:項(xiàng)航

????As of January, China Telecom had 38.7 million 3G subscribers, roughly 15 million of whom, according to a recent Morgan Stanley report, are so-called high-end users who could easily afford -- and are eager to buy -- an iPhone. (See charts.)

????China Unicom (CHU), the country's No. 2 carrier, has more 3G subscribers (43 million), but roughly the same number of high-end subscribers as China Telecom. According to Morgan Stanley's Katy Huberty, 20% of China Unicom's users have already bought iPhones, a share she expects to eventually grow to more than 60%.

????The big prize for Apple in China is still out of reach, however. China Mobile (CHL), the world's largest carrier with more than 600 million subscribers, has been in discussions with Apple for years, and millions of its customers are already using jailbroken iPhones on its older 2G network. But sales won't begin in earnest until Apple offers a 4G version of the iPhone that can run on China Mobile's broadband network.

????Huberty estimates that once that happens -- perhaps as early as this fall -- iPhone sales in China could quickly grow to 40 million a year.

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