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美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的批評(píng)者同樣希望特朗普停止對(duì)鮑威爾施壓

Greg McKenna
2025-04-23

唐納德·特朗普推行的關(guān)稅政策表面上旨在迫使全球“購(gòu)買美國(guó)商品”,,但投資者對(duì)美國(guó)資產(chǎn)的態(tài)度卻恰恰相反,。

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唐納德·特朗普于2017年提名杰羅姆·鮑威爾出任美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)主席一職。圖片來(lái)源:Olivier Douliery—Bloomberg/Getty Images

? 相較于一籃子標(biāo)準(zhǔn)貨幣,,美元今年以來(lái)已貶值逾9%,,歐元兌美元匯率更是觸及2021年11月以來(lái)的峰值。與此同時(shí),,黃金價(jià)格突破3420美元關(guān)口,,刷新歷史紀(jì)錄,其作為避險(xiǎn)資產(chǎn)的重要地位再度引發(fā)市場(chǎng)關(guān)注,。

唐納德·特朗普推行的關(guān)稅政策表面上旨在迫使全球“購(gòu)買美國(guó)商品”,,但投資者對(duì)美國(guó)資產(chǎn)的態(tài)度卻恰恰相反。美國(guó)股市與國(guó)債市場(chǎng)遭遇拋售浪潮,,甚至連堅(jiān)挺的美元也受到?jīng)_擊,,其避險(xiǎn)貨幣的地位受到質(zhì)疑,而特朗普對(duì)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)主席杰羅姆·鮑威爾的持續(xù)施壓亦未能扭轉(zhuǎn)這一頹勢(shì),。

盡管央行獨(dú)立性的優(yōu)勢(shì)已成為經(jīng)濟(jì)領(lǐng)域的主流理念,,然而專家警示,這一理念背后缺乏堅(jiān)實(shí)的法律支撐,。周一,,市場(chǎng)首次對(duì)特朗普首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家透露的“政府正探討罷免美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)主席”這一消息做出回應(yīng)。美元跌至兩年來(lái)的低點(diǎn),,標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)跌幅超3%,。與此同時(shí),特朗普在社交媒體上再度呼吁鮑威爾及美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)實(shí)施降息舉措,,聲稱此舉將與其關(guān)稅策略形成協(xié)同效應(yīng),。

特朗普在“真相社交”(Truth Social)上寫道:“正如我所預(yù)見(jiàn)的那樣,隨著各類成本大幅回落,,美國(guó)如今幾乎不存在通脹問(wèn)題,。然而,除非那位‘行動(dòng)遲緩的落敗者’(暗指美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)主席鮑威爾)即刻下調(diào)利率,,否則經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)或?qū)⑾萑敕啪徖Ь?。?/p>

上周,,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)主席鮑威爾發(fā)出警示,,稱特朗普宣布的關(guān)稅政策或?qū)⒁l(fā)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)放緩與通脹加劇的雙重困境(這一可怕的組合被稱為“滯脹”),對(duì)此特朗普表態(tài)稱,,解雇鮑威爾“宜早不宜遲”。鮑威爾坦言,,面對(duì)這樣的復(fù)雜形勢(shì),,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的處境頗為艱難:既要通過(guò)加息遏制通脹,又需降息來(lái)刺激經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng),。

次日,,特朗普在與意大利總理焦?fàn)柤獘I·梅洛尼(Giorgia Meloni)一起接受記者采訪時(shí),,多次批評(píng)這位全球最具影響力的央行行長(zhǎng)。

特朗普說(shuō):“倘若我決意讓他下臺(tái),,相信我,,他定會(huì)迅速走人?!?/p>

鮑威爾堅(jiān)稱,,唯有基于“正當(dāng)理由”方可解除其職務(wù),他所援引的依據(jù)大概率指向《聯(lián)邦儲(chǔ)備法》第10條,。雖然該法條并未明確界定“正當(dāng)理由”,,但美國(guó)最高法院1935年在“漢弗萊遺囑執(zhí)行人訴美國(guó)案”中的裁決指出,這種保護(hù)意味著此類機(jī)構(gòu)負(fù)責(zé)人只能因“效率低下,、失職或?yàn)^職”而被免職,,而絕不能單純基于當(dāng)下的政策分歧。

特朗普已通過(guò)解雇全國(guó)勞工關(guān)系委員會(huì)(National Labor Relations Board)和功績(jī)制保護(hù)委員會(huì)(Merit Systems Protection Board)中的民主黨成員來(lái)驗(yàn)證這一先例,,這兩起案件均上訴至最高法院,。無(wú)論如何,Infrastructure Capital Advisors首席執(zhí)行官杰伊·哈特菲爾德(Jay Hatfield)認(rèn)為,,最高法院于1935年確立的判定標(biāo)準(zhǔn),,同樣適用于描述鮑威爾及美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)在2021年應(yīng)對(duì)通脹攀升時(shí)反應(yīng)遲緩的情景。

如今,,他同意特朗普的觀點(diǎn),,即央行應(yīng)采取降息舉措。盡管哈特菲爾德管理著交易所交易基金(ETF)和一系列對(duì)沖基金,,但他還是告訴《財(cái)富》雜志,,總統(tǒng)需停止施壓威脅。

他說(shuō):“當(dāng)下,,我們實(shí)在難以承受更多波動(dòng)與不確定性,。”

財(cái)政部長(zhǎng)斯科特·貝森特(Scott Bessent)似乎也持同樣的觀點(diǎn),。據(jù)《政治報(bào)》(Politico)上周報(bào)道,,貝森特已多次向白宮官員發(fā)出警示,任何解雇鮑威爾的嘗試都有可能導(dǎo)致市場(chǎng)動(dòng)蕩,。

不過(guò),,當(dāng)?shù)貢r(shí)間4月22日,特朗普改口稱,,他無(wú)意解雇美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)主席鮑威爾,,并再次重申美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)應(yīng)該降低利率。

美元會(huì)失去其避險(xiǎn)地位嗎?

美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的獨(dú)立性是美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)吸引投資者的關(guān)鍵因素,。然而,,一旦政治干預(yù)侵蝕央行貨幣政策制定的自主性,通貨膨脹往往隨之而來(lái),,這在土耳其等獨(dú)裁國(guó)家一直是個(gè)大問(wèn)題,。

值得注意的是,特朗普并非首位對(duì)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)施壓要求降息的總統(tǒng),。20世紀(jì)70年代初,,理查德·尼克松(Richard Nixon)總統(tǒng)曾要求時(shí)任美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)主席阿瑟·伯恩斯(Arthur Burns)維持低利率,此舉在后續(xù)進(jìn)一步加劇了美國(guó)歷史上最為嚴(yán)峻的滯脹危機(jī),。

直到伯恩斯的繼任者保羅·沃克(Paul Volcker)將利率提高到創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的20%,,這場(chǎng)危機(jī)方得平息。這一舉措引發(fā)了一場(chǎng)痛苦的經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退,,廣受詬病,。不過(guò),瑞銀全球財(cái)富管理(UBS Global Wealth Management)首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家保羅·唐納文(Paul Donovan)表示,,正是這種以抗擊通脹為使命的獨(dú)立央行體系興起,,為美國(guó)開(kāi)啟了被稱作“大穩(wěn)健”的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)穩(wěn)定時(shí)代。

他在周一的一份報(bào)告中寫道:“建立這種信任需要數(shù)年時(shí)間,,而失去這種信任可能只在一夜之間,。”

在許多人看來(lái),,近期的市場(chǎng)動(dòng)蕩表明人們對(duì)美國(guó)的信心急劇下降,。相較于一籃子標(biāo)準(zhǔn)貨幣,美元今年以來(lái)已貶值逾9%,,歐元兌美元匯率更是觸及2021年11月以來(lái)的峰值,。與此同時(shí),黃金價(jià)格突破3420美元關(guān)口,,刷新歷史紀(jì)錄,,其作為避險(xiǎn)資產(chǎn)的重要地位再度引發(fā)市場(chǎng)關(guān)注。

誠(chéng)然,,特朗普及其部分盟友曾主張美元貶值,,旨在增強(qiáng)美國(guó)出口商品在國(guó)際市場(chǎng)的價(jià)格競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力。在2023年的一場(chǎng)參議院聽(tīng)證會(huì)上,,現(xiàn)任副總統(tǒng)詹姆斯·戴維·萬(wàn)斯(JD Vance)曾就美元作為全球儲(chǔ)備貨幣的地位向鮑威爾提出質(zhì)詢,。

鮑威爾說(shuō):“在經(jīng)濟(jì)動(dòng)蕩期,市場(chǎng)普遍傾向于持有美元計(jì)價(jià)資產(chǎn),,這就是美元的優(yōu)勢(shì)所在,?!?/p>

不過(guò),,目前的情況并非如此,。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:中慧言-王芳

? 相較于一籃子標(biāo)準(zhǔn)貨幣,美元今年以來(lái)已貶值逾9%,,歐元兌美元匯率更是觸及2021年11月以來(lái)的峰值,。與此同時(shí),黃金價(jià)格突破3420美元關(guān)口,,刷新歷史紀(jì)錄,,其作為避險(xiǎn)資產(chǎn)的重要地位再度引發(fā)市場(chǎng)關(guān)注。

唐納德·特朗普推行的關(guān)稅政策表面上旨在迫使全球“購(gòu)買美國(guó)商品”,,但投資者對(duì)美國(guó)資產(chǎn)的態(tài)度卻恰恰相反,。美國(guó)股市與國(guó)債市場(chǎng)遭遇拋售浪潮,甚至連堅(jiān)挺的美元也受到?jīng)_擊,,其避險(xiǎn)貨幣的地位受到質(zhì)疑,,而特朗普對(duì)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)主席杰羅姆·鮑威爾的持續(xù)施壓亦未能扭轉(zhuǎn)這一頹勢(shì)。

盡管央行獨(dú)立性的優(yōu)勢(shì)已成為經(jīng)濟(jì)領(lǐng)域的主流理念,,然而專家警示,,這一理念背后缺乏堅(jiān)實(shí)的法律支撐。周一,,市場(chǎng)首次對(duì)特朗普首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家透露的“政府正探討罷免美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)主席”這一消息做出回應(yīng),。美元跌至兩年來(lái)的低點(diǎn),標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)跌幅超3%,。與此同時(shí),,特朗普在社交媒體上再度呼吁鮑威爾及美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)實(shí)施降息舉措,聲稱此舉將與其關(guān)稅策略形成協(xié)同效應(yīng),。

特朗普在“真相社交”(Truth Social)上寫道:“正如我所預(yù)見(jiàn)的那樣,,隨著各類成本大幅回落,美國(guó)如今幾乎不存在通脹問(wèn)題,。然而,,除非那位‘行動(dòng)遲緩的落敗者’(暗指美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)主席鮑威爾)即刻下調(diào)利率,否則經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)或?qū)⑾萑敕啪徖Ь??!?/p>

上周,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)主席鮑威爾發(fā)出警示,,稱特朗普宣布的關(guān)稅政策或?qū)⒁l(fā)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)放緩與通脹加劇的雙重困境(這一可怕的組合被稱為“滯脹”),,對(duì)此特朗普表態(tài)稱,解雇鮑威爾“宜早不宜遲”,。鮑威爾坦言,,面對(duì)這樣的復(fù)雜形勢(shì),,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的處境頗為艱難:既要通過(guò)加息遏制通脹,又需降息來(lái)刺激經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng),。

次日,,特朗普在與意大利總理焦?fàn)柤獘I·梅洛尼(Giorgia Meloni)一起接受記者采訪時(shí),多次批評(píng)這位全球最具影響力的央行行長(zhǎng),。

特朗普說(shuō):“倘若我決意讓他下臺(tái),,相信我,他定會(huì)迅速走人,?!?/p>

鮑威爾堅(jiān)稱,唯有基于“正當(dāng)理由”方可解除其職務(wù),,他所援引的依據(jù)大概率指向《聯(lián)邦儲(chǔ)備法》第10條,。雖然該法條并未明確界定“正當(dāng)理由”,但美國(guó)最高法院1935年在“漢弗萊遺囑執(zhí)行人訴美國(guó)案”中的裁決指出,,這種保護(hù)意味著此類機(jī)構(gòu)負(fù)責(zé)人只能因“效率低下,、失職或?yàn)^職”而被免職,而絕不能單純基于當(dāng)下的政策分歧,。

特朗普已通過(guò)解雇全國(guó)勞工關(guān)系委員會(huì)(National Labor Relations Board)和功績(jī)制保護(hù)委員會(huì)(Merit Systems Protection Board)中的民主黨成員來(lái)驗(yàn)證這一先例,,這兩起案件均上訴至最高法院。無(wú)論如何,,Infrastructure Capital Advisors首席執(zhí)行官杰伊·哈特菲爾德(Jay Hatfield)認(rèn)為,,最高法院于1935年確立的判定標(biāo)準(zhǔn),同樣適用于描述鮑威爾及美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)在2021年應(yīng)對(duì)通脹攀升時(shí)反應(yīng)遲緩的情景,。

如今,,他同意特朗普的觀點(diǎn),即央行應(yīng)采取降息舉措,。盡管哈特菲爾德管理著交易所交易基金(ETF)和一系列對(duì)沖基金,,但他還是告訴《財(cái)富》雜志,總統(tǒng)需停止施壓威脅,。

他說(shuō):“當(dāng)下,,我們實(shí)在難以承受更多波動(dòng)與不確定性?!?/p>

財(cái)政部長(zhǎng)斯科特·貝森特(Scott Bessent)似乎也持同樣的觀點(diǎn),。據(jù)《政治報(bào)》(Politico)上周報(bào)道,貝森特已多次向白宮官員發(fā)出警示,,任何解雇鮑威爾的嘗試都有可能導(dǎo)致市場(chǎng)動(dòng)蕩,。

不過(guò),當(dāng)?shù)貢r(shí)間4月22日,,特朗普改口稱,,他無(wú)意解雇美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)主席鮑威爾,,并再次重申美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)應(yīng)該降低利率。

美元會(huì)失去其避險(xiǎn)地位嗎,?

美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的獨(dú)立性是美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)吸引投資者的關(guān)鍵因素,。然而,一旦政治干預(yù)侵蝕央行貨幣政策制定的自主性,,通貨膨脹往往隨之而來(lái),,這在土耳其等獨(dú)裁國(guó)家一直是個(gè)大問(wèn)題。

值得注意的是,,特朗普并非首位對(duì)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)施壓要求降息的總統(tǒng)。20世紀(jì)70年代初,,理查德·尼克松(Richard Nixon)總統(tǒng)曾要求時(shí)任美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)主席阿瑟·伯恩斯(Arthur Burns)維持低利率,,此舉在后續(xù)進(jìn)一步加劇了美國(guó)歷史上最為嚴(yán)峻的滯脹危機(jī)。

直到伯恩斯的繼任者保羅·沃克(Paul Volcker)將利率提高到創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的20%,,這場(chǎng)危機(jī)方得平息,。這一舉措引發(fā)了一場(chǎng)痛苦的經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退,廣受詬病,。不過(guò),,瑞銀全球財(cái)富管理(UBS Global Wealth Management)首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家保羅·唐納文(Paul Donovan)表示,正是這種以抗擊通脹為使命的獨(dú)立央行體系興起,,為美國(guó)開(kāi)啟了被稱作“大穩(wěn)健”的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)穩(wěn)定時(shí)代,。

他在周一的一份報(bào)告中寫道:“建立這種信任需要數(shù)年時(shí)間,而失去這種信任可能只在一夜之間,?!?/p>

在許多人看來(lái),近期的市場(chǎng)動(dòng)蕩表明人們對(duì)美國(guó)的信心急劇下降,。相較于一籃子標(biāo)準(zhǔn)貨幣,,美元今年以來(lái)已貶值逾9%,歐元兌美元匯率更是觸及2021年11月以來(lái)的峰值,。與此同時(shí),,黃金價(jià)格突破3420美元關(guān)口,刷新歷史紀(jì)錄,,其作為避險(xiǎn)資產(chǎn)的重要地位再度引發(fā)市場(chǎng)關(guān)注,。

誠(chéng)然,特朗普及其部分盟友曾主張美元貶值,,旨在增強(qiáng)美國(guó)出口商品在國(guó)際市場(chǎng)的價(jià)格競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力,。在2023年的一場(chǎng)參議院聽(tīng)證會(huì)上,現(xiàn)任副總統(tǒng)詹姆斯·戴維·萬(wàn)斯(JD Vance)曾就美元作為全球儲(chǔ)備貨幣的地位向鮑威爾提出質(zhì)詢,。

鮑威爾說(shuō):“在經(jīng)濟(jì)動(dòng)蕩期,,市場(chǎng)普遍傾向于持有美元計(jì)價(jià)資產(chǎn),,這就是美元的優(yōu)勢(shì)所在?!?/p>

不過(guò),,目前的情況并非如此。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:中慧言-王芳

The dollar is down over 9% year to date compared with a standard basket of currencies, with the euro stronger relative to U.S. currency than at any point since November 2021. The safe-haven status of gold is also in focus as the precious metal’s price hits record highs above the $3,420 mark.

? President Donald Trump’s tariffs are ostensibly aimed at forcing the world to “buy American,” but investors are doing the opposite with U.S. assets. The selloff in equities and Treasury bonds has even hit the almighty dollar, putting its safe-haven status in question, and Trump’s badgering of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell doesn’t appear to be helping.

While the virtues of central bank independence have become mainstream economic dogma, experts warn it lacks a strong legal basis. On Monday, markets got their first chance to react to Trump’s top economist saying the administration is studying its options to fire the Fed chair. The dollar slid to a two-year low, and the S&P 500 dropped over 3% as the president took to social media and once again called on Powell and the Fed to cut interest rates, which Trump claims will complement his tariff strategy.

“With these costs trending so nicely downward, just what I predicted they would do, there can almost be no inflation,” Trump wrote on Truth Social, “but there can be a SLOWING of the economy unless Mr. Too Late, a major loser, lowers interest rates, NOW.”

Last week, the president said Powell’s termination could not “come fast enough” after the Fed chair warned Trump’s announced tariffs could result in both slowing growth and higher inflation, a dreaded combination known as “stagflation.” Powell acknowledged such a scenario is difficult for central banks, which raise interest rates to fight inflation but lower them to spur economic activity.

A day later, Trump repeatedly criticized the world’s most important central banker while talking to reporters with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni.

“If I want him out, he’ll be out of there real fast, believe me,” Trump said.

Powell has maintained that he can only be fired “for cause,” presumably referring to Section 10 of the Federal Reserve Act. While not explicitly defined in the statute, the Supreme Court’s 1935 decision in Humphrey’s Executor v. United States held that protection meant the head of such an agency could only be removed for “inefficiency, neglect of duty, or malfeasance”—and not for current policy disagreements.

Trump has already tested that precedent by firing Democratic members of the National Labor Relations Board and Merit Systems Protection Board, with both cases going to the Supreme Court. Regardless, Jay Hatfield, CEO of Infrastructure Capital Advisors, thinks the court’s 1935 standard could be used to describe Powell and the Fed’s slow response to rising inflation in 2021.

Now, he agrees with Trump that the central bank should cut rates. Still, even Hatfield, who manages ETFs and a series of hedge funds, told Fortune the president needs to back off on his threats.

“We just don’t need more volatility, more uncertainty right now,” he said.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent seems to agree. Last week, Politico reported Bessent has repeatedly warned White House officials that any attempt to fire Powell risks destabilizing markets.

Will the dollar lose its safe-haven status?

The independence of the Federal Reserve is a key part of what makes the U.S. economy appealing to investors. When politics interferes with the central bank’s ability to set monetary policy, however, inflation tends to be the result, which has been a major problem in autocracies like Turkey.

Trump, notably, is far from the first president to pressure the Fed to cut interest rates. President Richard Nixon told then–Fed Chair Arthur Burns to keep rates low in the early 1970s, later contributing to America’s worst bout with stagflation.

The crisis was only cured after Burns’ successor, Paul Volcker, raised rates to a record 20%. The move induced a painful and unpopular recession. However, the rise of an independent central bank committed to fighting inflation helped usher in a period of macroeconomic stability known as the “Great Moderation,” according to Paul Donovan, chief economist at UBS Global Wealth Management.

“Building that trust takes years,” he wrote in a note Monday. “Losing that trust can happen overnight.”

To many, recent market turmoil has signaled a dramatic drop of confidence in the U.S. The dollar is down over 9% year to date compared with a standard basket of currencies, with the euro stronger relative to U.S. currency than at any point since November 2021. The safe-haven status of gold is in focus as the precious metal’s price hits record highs above the $3,420 mark.

Of course, Trump and several of his allies have called for a weaker dollar to make American exports cheaper abroad. At a Senate hearing in 2023, Powell was questioned about its status as the world’s reserve currency by now–Vice President JD Vance.

“It’s the place where people want to be in times of stress,” Powell said, “using dollar-denominated assets.”

That’s not the case right now, though.

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