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關(guān)稅大棒下,,美元正在失去“避風(fēng)港”地位

Alicia Adamczyk
2025-04-21

特朗普亂揮關(guān)稅大棒動(dòng)搖市場(chǎng)信心,美元市場(chǎng)地位遭打擊,。

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圖片來(lái)源:Witthaya Prasongsin—Getty Images

特朗普發(fā)動(dòng)本輪關(guān)稅戰(zhàn)以來(lái),美國(guó)股市和債券市場(chǎng)相繼崩盤(pán),,令金融界人心惶惶,。但是受影響的還不只是美元和美債,就連美元自身的地位也岌岌可危,。有分析師警告稱,,由于特朗普政府反復(fù)無(wú)常的對(duì)外政策,很可能導(dǎo)致全球出現(xiàn)“去美元化”現(xiàn)象,。

德意志銀行全球外匯研究總監(jiān)喬治?薩拉韋洛斯在上周的一份報(bào)告中寫(xiě)道:“我們正在見(jiàn)證所有美國(guó)資產(chǎn)價(jià)格的同時(shí)暴跌,,包括證券、美元(匯率)和債券市場(chǎng),。全球金融體系正在進(jìn)入一個(gè)未知的領(lǐng)域,。”

即便市場(chǎng)暴跌,,債券收益率上升,,但是美元匯率仍在上周跌至近三年的最低點(diǎn)。薩拉韋洛斯表示,,在典型的市場(chǎng)環(huán)境下,,一旦遇到這種情況,市場(chǎng)就會(huì)“囤積”美元,,作為對(duì)抗其他風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素的“避風(fēng)港”,,美元便會(huì)隨之升值。但是這次,,特朗普給全球市場(chǎng)帶來(lái)的沖擊遠(yuǎn)非尋?!,F(xiàn)在其他國(guó)家已經(jīng)失去了對(duì)美國(guó)的信心,,而且都在減持美國(guó)資產(chǎn),,這很有可能動(dòng)搖美元作為全球儲(chǔ)備貨幣的地位。

這是個(gè)值得關(guān)注的問(wèn)題,。美元的特殊性,,來(lái)自其他國(guó)家的“補(bǔ)貼”。美國(guó)每年獲得的外國(guó)投資高達(dá)2萬(wàn)億美元,,這些外國(guó)投資者既包括個(gè)人也包括外國(guó)政府,,他們持有美債總額的30%,。他們紛紛撤資離場(chǎng),是一件值得擔(dān)憂的事,。因?yàn)楫?dāng)下美國(guó)國(guó)債規(guī)模還在水漲船高,,外國(guó)拋售的行為很可能會(huì)導(dǎo)致美國(guó)的借貸成本進(jìn)一步上升。

如果這一屆美國(guó)政府仍然致力于維持美元的儲(chǔ)備貨幣地位,,那么分析師們就用不著如此擔(dān)憂近期的市場(chǎng)波動(dòng)了,。但是白宮經(jīng)濟(jì)顧問(wèn)委員會(huì)主席斯蒂芬?米蘭在上周的一次講話中表示,維持美元的主導(dǎo)地位“要付出高昂的代價(jià)”,,并且會(huì)導(dǎo)致美國(guó)的勞動(dòng)力和產(chǎn)品失去競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力,。

那么,投資者該何去何從呢,?富國(guó)銀行投資研究所的全球策略師加里?施洛斯伯格表示,,有的投資者已經(jīng)把目光投向了黃金、德國(guó)國(guó)債,、瑞士法郎和日元等資產(chǎn),。

不過(guò),施洛斯伯格也指出,,現(xiàn)在還不到對(duì)美元完全失去信心的時(shí)候,,美元市場(chǎng)崩潰并不是一件馬上就會(huì)發(fā)生的事,目前美元的頹勢(shì)是可以逆轉(zhuǎn)的,。雖然過(guò)去幾個(gè)月,,美元地位已經(jīng)遭到了相當(dāng)大的損害,但美元特殊性的支柱因素仍然存在,。相比于其他任何一個(gè)市場(chǎng),,美國(guó)市場(chǎng)仍然更有深度,更有流動(dòng)性,,也更發(fā)達(dá)和高效,。盡管有人認(rèn)為歐元有可能成為美元的替代貨幣,但是歐洲的分裂程度遠(yuǎn)甚于美國(guó),,甚至還面臨著解體的風(fēng)險(xiǎn),。

施洛斯伯格表示:“當(dāng)然,目前存在資金逃出美國(guó)的情況,?!边@反映了市場(chǎng)內(nèi)部的深層不安,但是“美元仍將是核心貨幣,,市面上也幾乎沒(méi)有能代替它的貨幣?!?/p>

全球?qū)γ绹?guó)的信心動(dòng)搖了

話雖如此,,但是包括施洛斯伯格在內(nèi)的分析師們都指出,,當(dāng)前的市場(chǎng)環(huán)境與以前的幾次市場(chǎng)動(dòng)蕩有著顯著的不同。以2011年美國(guó)國(guó)債信用評(píng)級(jí)下調(diào)為例,。當(dāng)時(shí),,投資者并未過(guò)度在意此事,依然將美元視為穩(wěn)定的“避風(fēng)港“,,從而避免了市場(chǎng)的失控,。在2008年金融危機(jī)期間,各國(guó)政府也能攜手共克時(shí)艱,。

但特朗普政府的關(guān)稅政策,,以及不顧實(shí)際硬搞所謂的“制造業(yè)回流”的做法,卻顛覆了幾十年來(lái)各國(guó)達(dá)成共識(shí),,并且威脅到了美國(guó)作為全球事實(shí)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者的地位,。其影響很可能是長(zhǎng)期的。

施洛斯伯格表示:“特朗普的做法,,基本上就是要在一定程度上讓美國(guó)自外于全球經(jīng)濟(jì),。我并不是說(shuō),二戰(zhàn)以來(lái)的貿(mào)易和支付體系已經(jīng)到了崩潰的邊緣了,,但特朗普這樣做的確會(huì)制造不確定性,。”

而特朗普政策的多變性,,又進(jìn)一步加劇了這種不確定性,。在短短幾周內(nèi),他的關(guān)稅政策朝令夕改,,一時(shí)增稅,,一時(shí)暫緩,一會(huì)兒揮大棒,,一會(huì)兒扔胡蘿卜,。目前,美國(guó)政府對(duì)大多數(shù)國(guó)家全面征收10%的關(guān)稅,,但是對(duì)中國(guó)征收了145%的關(guān)稅,。這一切都是以行政令的方式發(fā)布的,而不是由國(guó)會(huì)通過(guò)法律,,所以這些政策具有極大的隨意性,,很容易朝令夕改。這些都削弱了國(guó)際社會(huì)對(duì)美國(guó)的信任,。即便這些政策都被糾正了,,對(duì)美國(guó)信用的損害也很難消除。有分析人士認(rèn)為,,特朗普的這番折騰,,最大的贏家是歐元和日元,。

施洛斯伯格表示,投資者如果對(duì)當(dāng)前的市場(chǎng)環(huán)境感到擔(dān)憂,,不妨跟理財(cái)顧問(wèn)談?wù)勛约旱母惺?,?wèn)他們對(duì)市場(chǎng)環(huán)境變化的看法。不過(guò)至少就目前而言,,有一些基本原則是仍然適用的,。比如你可以多元化配置資產(chǎn),既投資美國(guó)資產(chǎn),,也投資國(guó)際資產(chǎn),,可以考慮將黃金作為“避風(fēng)港”,或者短期考慮增加現(xiàn)金配置,??傊袌?chǎng)環(huán)境是瞬息萬(wàn)變的,,千萬(wàn)不要為了尋找替代投資而急躁冒進(jìn),。

最后,施洛斯伯格說(shuō):“樂(lè)觀地看,,這一些都會(huì)過(guò)去的,,所有這些人為的動(dòng)蕩都會(huì)結(jié)束。明天不會(huì)是世界末日,。我的意思是,,這一切也許周一就會(huì)逆轉(zhuǎn)?!保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:樸成奎

特朗普發(fā)動(dòng)本輪關(guān)稅戰(zhàn)以來(lái),,美國(guó)股市和債券市場(chǎng)相繼崩盤(pán),令金融界人心惶惶,。但是受影響的還不只是美元和美債,,就連美元自身的地位也岌岌可危。有分析師警告稱,,由于特朗普政府反復(fù)無(wú)常的對(duì)外政策,,很可能導(dǎo)致全球出現(xiàn)“去美元化”現(xiàn)象。

德意志銀行全球外匯研究總監(jiān)喬治?薩拉韋洛斯在上周的一份報(bào)告中寫(xiě)道:“我們正在見(jiàn)證所有美國(guó)資產(chǎn)價(jià)格的同時(shí)暴跌,,包括證券,、美元(匯率)和債券市場(chǎng)。全球金融體系正在進(jìn)入一個(gè)未知的領(lǐng)域,?!?/p>

即便市場(chǎng)暴跌,債券收益率上升,,但是美元匯率仍在上周跌至近三年的最低點(diǎn),。薩拉韋洛斯表示,,在典型的市場(chǎng)環(huán)境下,,一旦遇到這種情況,,市場(chǎng)就會(huì)“囤積”美元,作為對(duì)抗其他風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素的“避風(fēng)港”,,美元便會(huì)隨之升值,。但是這次,特朗普給全球市場(chǎng)帶來(lái)的沖擊遠(yuǎn)非尋?!,,F(xiàn)在其他國(guó)家已經(jīng)失去了對(duì)美國(guó)的信心,而且都在減持美國(guó)資產(chǎn),,這很有可能動(dòng)搖美元作為全球儲(chǔ)備貨幣的地位,。

這是個(gè)值得關(guān)注的問(wèn)題。美元的特殊性,,來(lái)自其他國(guó)家的“補(bǔ)貼”,。美國(guó)每年獲得的外國(guó)投資高達(dá)2萬(wàn)億美元,這些外國(guó)投資者既包括個(gè)人也包括外國(guó)政府,,他們持有美債總額的30%,。他們紛紛撤資離場(chǎng),是一件值得擔(dān)憂的事,。因?yàn)楫?dāng)下美國(guó)國(guó)債規(guī)模還在水漲船高,,外國(guó)拋售的行為很可能會(huì)導(dǎo)致美國(guó)的借貸成本進(jìn)一步上升。

如果這一屆美國(guó)政府仍然致力于維持美元的儲(chǔ)備貨幣地位,,那么分析師們就用不著如此擔(dān)憂近期的市場(chǎng)波動(dòng)了,。但是白宮經(jīng)濟(jì)顧問(wèn)委員會(huì)主席斯蒂芬?米蘭在上周的一次講話中表示,維持美元的主導(dǎo)地位“要付出高昂的代價(jià)”,,并且會(huì)導(dǎo)致美國(guó)的勞動(dòng)力和產(chǎn)品失去競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力,。

那么,投資者該何去何從呢,?富國(guó)銀行投資研究所的全球策略師加里?施洛斯伯格表示,,有的投資者已經(jīng)把目光投向了黃金、德國(guó)國(guó)債,、瑞士法郎和日元等資產(chǎn),。

不過(guò),施洛斯伯格也指出,,現(xiàn)在還不到對(duì)美元完全失去信心的時(shí)候,,美元市場(chǎng)崩潰并不是一件馬上就會(huì)發(fā)生的事,目前美元的頹勢(shì)是可以逆轉(zhuǎn)的,。雖然過(guò)去幾個(gè)月,,美元地位已經(jīng)遭到了相當(dāng)大的損害,,但美元特殊性的支柱因素仍然存在。相比于其他任何一個(gè)市場(chǎng),,美國(guó)市場(chǎng)仍然更有深度,,更有流動(dòng)性,也更發(fā)達(dá)和高效,。盡管有人認(rèn)為歐元有可能成為美元的替代貨幣,,但是歐洲的分裂程度遠(yuǎn)甚于美國(guó),甚至還面臨著解體的風(fēng)險(xiǎn),。

施洛斯伯格表示:“當(dāng)然,,目前存在資金逃出美國(guó)的情況?!边@反映了市場(chǎng)內(nèi)部的深層不安,,但是“美元仍將是核心貨幣,市面上也幾乎沒(méi)有能代替它的貨幣,?!?/p>

全球?qū)γ绹?guó)的信心動(dòng)搖了

話雖如此,但是包括施洛斯伯格在內(nèi)的分析師們都指出,,當(dāng)前的市場(chǎng)環(huán)境與以前的幾次市場(chǎng)動(dòng)蕩有著顯著的不同,。以2011年美國(guó)國(guó)債信用評(píng)級(jí)下調(diào)為例。當(dāng)時(shí),,投資者并未過(guò)度在意此事,,依然將美元視為穩(wěn)定的“避風(fēng)港“,從而避免了市場(chǎng)的失控,。在2008年金融危機(jī)期間,,各國(guó)政府也能攜手共克時(shí)艱。

但特朗普政府的關(guān)稅政策,,以及不顧實(shí)際硬搞所謂的“制造業(yè)回流”的做法,,卻顛覆了幾十年來(lái)各國(guó)達(dá)成共識(shí),并且威脅到了美國(guó)作為全球事實(shí)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者的地位,。其影響很可能是長(zhǎng)期的,。

施洛斯伯格表示:“特朗普的做法,基本上就是要在一定程度上讓美國(guó)自外于全球經(jīng)濟(jì),。我并不是說(shuō),,二戰(zhàn)以來(lái)的貿(mào)易和支付體系已經(jīng)到了崩潰的邊緣了,但特朗普這樣做的確會(huì)制造不確定性,?!?/p>

而特朗普政策的多變性,又進(jìn)一步加劇了這種不確定性。在短短幾周內(nèi),,他的關(guān)稅政策朝令夕改,,一時(shí)增稅,一時(shí)暫緩,,一會(huì)兒揮大棒,,一會(huì)兒扔胡蘿卜。目前,,美國(guó)政府對(duì)大多數(shù)國(guó)家全面征收10%的關(guān)稅,,但是對(duì)中國(guó)征收了145%的關(guān)稅,。這一切都是以行政令的方式發(fā)布的,,而不是由國(guó)會(huì)通過(guò)法律,所以這些政策具有極大的隨意性,,很容易朝令夕改,。這些都削弱了國(guó)際社會(huì)對(duì)美國(guó)的信任。即便這些政策都被糾正了,,對(duì)美國(guó)信用的損害也很難消除,。有分析人士認(rèn)為,特朗普的這番折騰,,最大的贏家是歐元和日元,。

施洛斯伯格表示,投資者如果對(duì)當(dāng)前的市場(chǎng)環(huán)境感到擔(dān)憂,,不妨跟理財(cái)顧問(wèn)談?wù)勛约旱母惺?,?wèn)他們對(duì)市場(chǎng)環(huán)境變化的看法。不過(guò)至少就目前而言,,有一些基本原則是仍然適用的,。比如你可以多元化配置資產(chǎn),既投資美國(guó)資產(chǎn),,也投資國(guó)際資產(chǎn),,可以考慮將黃金作為“避風(fēng)港”,或者短期考慮增加現(xiàn)金配置,??傊袌?chǎng)環(huán)境是瞬息萬(wàn)變的,,千萬(wàn)不要為了尋找替代投資而急躁冒進(jìn),。

最后,施洛斯伯格說(shuō):“樂(lè)觀地看,,這一些都會(huì)過(guò)去的,,所有這些人為的動(dòng)蕩都會(huì)結(jié)束。明天不會(huì)是世界末日。我的意思是,,這一切也許周一就會(huì)逆轉(zhuǎn),。”(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:樸成奎

A tariff-induced meltdown of U.S. equity and bond markets has been spooking financial circles. But stocks and Treasuries aren’t the only assets on the fritz—the U.S. dollar is also falling, with analysts warning of a global “de-dollarization” in response to the Trump administration’s frenetic foreign policy decisions.

“We are witnessing a simultaneous collapse in the price of all U.S. assets including equities, the dollar versus alternative reserve [foreign exchange], and the bond market,” writes George Saravelos, global head of FX research at Deutsche Bank, in a note this week. “We are entering unchart[ed] territory in the global financial system.”

Even as markets tank and bond yields rise, the dollar is down to a three-year low this week. In a more typical environment, markets would be “hoarding” dollars as a safe haven from the other noise, says Saravelos, and the dollar would be strengthening. But what Trump has unleashed on global markets is far from typical. Now, other countries are losing faith in the U.S. and actively selling down U.S. assets, possibly upending the dollar’s global reserve status.

This is a problem, as the U.S. dollar’s exceptionalism is subsidized by other countries: Foreigners invest nearly $2 trillion in the U.S. every year. Foreign investors, both individuals and governments, own 30% of U.S. debt. Seeing them heading for the exits is cause for major concern, not least because it could lead to increased borrowing costs for the U.S. at a time when the national debt is ballooning.

Analysts would be less worried about the recent volatility if the U.S. government was committed to maintaining the dollar’s reserve status. But Stephen Miran, chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, gave a speech this week in which he said the primacy of USD is “costly,” alleging it makes U.S. labor and products uncompetitive.

So where does that leave investors? Some are looking for reassurance in assets like gold, German bunds, Swiss francs, and the Japanese yen, says Gary Schlossberg, global strategist at Wells Fargo Investment Institute.

But it isn’t time to give up all faith in the USD, he says—market collapse isn’t imminent. The current erosion in its strength can still be reversed. Because although considerable damage has been done over the past few months, the pillars of U.S. exceptionalism are still in place: The U.S. market is still deeper, more liquid, more developed, and more efficient than any other. Though some have positioned the euro as a possible alternative, Europe is far more fragmented than the U.S., and faces risks of disintegration.

“Certainly there is a withdrawal from the U.S.,” says Schlossberg, noting that it’s a reflection of the deep unease within markets. But “the dollar is going to remain the centerpiece. There are so few alternatives out there.”

Global confidence in the U.S. is shaken

That said, Schlossberg and other analysts have noted that the current market environment is substantially different from previous shocks. Take the 2011 credit downgrade of U.S. Treasury debt. At that time, investors looked through it, and still considered the dollar a stable safe haven, preventing a rollover of the market. During the 2008 financial crisis, governments came together to right the ship.

But the Trump administration’s tariff policies and intention to silo U.S. manufacturing from other countries is a different beast, upending decades of agreed-upon rules and threatening the U.S.’s role as the world’s de facto leader. The ramifications are likely to be longer-term.

“You’re talking about basically removing, by degree, the U.S. from the global economy,” Schlossberg says. “I don’t mean to suggest that we’re on the verge of a collapse in the trade and payment system that goes back to World War II, but it just creates uncertainty.”

Creating even more uncertainty is how fluid Trump’s policies have been. Within just a few weeks, he has implemented tariffs, changed them multiple times, and now frozen some of them, although the blanket 10% tariff on most countries and 145% tariff on China is currently in place. As all of this has been done by executive order—and not codified by Congress into law, though tariffs are in its purview—it can easily be rescinded or replaced, as Trump himself has already done. All of this is eroding trust in the U.S., which will be hard to undo even if all of the policies were reversed. The big winners from all of this are the euro and the yen, analysts say.

Schlossberg says jittery investors should talk through their feelings with a financial advisor, and get their read on how they view the market environment changing. But for now at least, the fundamentals remain: Diversify your holdings to include both U.S. and international exposure, consider gold as a safe haven, and consider upping your cash allocation for the time being. Don’t get “too over your skis” trying to find alternatives in a rapidly changing environment.

“Optimistically you can say, this too shall pass, the turbulence that’s been created. It’s not Armageddon tomorrow,” says Schlossberg. “I mean, this may reverse on Monday.”

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