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特朗普加征關(guān)稅后,,6大類產(chǎn)品價格將大漲

Alicia Adamczyk
2025-04-09

美國人將花更多的錢購買汽車,、食品百貨等。

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由于美國總統(tǒng)唐納德·特朗普(Donald Trump)宣布加征關(guān)稅,,美國家庭平均每年將額外承擔(dān)高達3800美元的支出。圖片來源:Allen J. Schaben / Getty

經(jīng)濟學(xué)家和分析人士稱,,唐納德·特朗普總統(tǒng)本周對數(shù)十個國家推行全面關(guān)稅政策,,這將給美國消費者帶來巨大的價格沖擊。從服裝到iPhone,,從住房到汽車,,美國民眾生活的方方面面都可能受到影響——更不必提及因股市崩盤導(dǎo)致退休賬戶縮水了。

耶魯大學(xué)預(yù)算實驗室估計,,受本周新宣布的關(guān)稅舉措以及今年早些時候出臺的關(guān)稅政策影響,,普通美國家庭每年將額外承擔(dān)3800美元的開支。這些關(guān)稅包括對所有進口商品普遍加征的10%的關(guān)稅,,以及依據(jù)特殊計算公式,,針對60個國家征收的特定附加關(guān)稅,這些國家面臨著更高的稅率,。而在此之前,,美國就已對加拿大、中國,、墨西哥加征關(guān)稅,,同時對汽車、鋼鐵和鋁等關(guān)鍵品類也征收了關(guān)稅,。美國整體經(jīng)濟每年或?qū)p失1000億至1800億美元,。

右傾的稅收基金會(Tax Foundation)稱,,此次實施的關(guān)稅政策是自20世紀80年代以來對美國消費者施加的最大規(guī)模增稅措施。高盛集團(Goldman Sachs)公共投資首席投資官阿希什·沙阿(Ashish Shah)在上周四的一場媒體活動中表示:"本質(zhì)上,,這等同于對消費者征稅,。”消費者將“承擔(dān)商品價格上漲的成本”,。

目前要確切知道這些對進口商品所加征的關(guān)稅將如何影響價格,,甚至最終稅率會是多少,還為時尚早,。特朗普并未將談判的可能性完全排除在外,。但以下是一些金融分析師和經(jīng)濟學(xué)家根據(jù)目前情況對價格上漲的預(yù)測。

1. 食品雜貨

在美國總統(tǒng)大選期間,,雞蛋價格高企成為備受矚目的突出問題,,特朗普曾表示他將在就任總統(tǒng)的第一天就降低雞蛋價格。專家表示,,隨著關(guān)稅政策的宣布,,不僅雞蛋價格不會下降,而且許多其他易腐食品雜貨的成本很可能在本月底前上漲,。據(jù)美國食品藥品監(jiān)督管理局稱,,美國整體食品供應(yīng)中,約有15%依賴進口,。

預(yù)計牛油果,、香蕉、葡萄和甜瓜等農(nóng)產(chǎn)品的價格都會上漲,,牛肉,、奶酪、巧克力,、咖啡,、橄欖油、海鮮等商品的價格也會上漲,。耶魯大學(xué)預(yù)算實驗室稱,,新鮮農(nóng)產(chǎn)品的價格漲幅或?qū)⒏鼮轱@著。

2. 汽車

即便特朗普未推行關(guān)稅政策,,汽車價格也已飆升到令眾多消費者望而卻步的高位,。根據(jù)汽車信息網(wǎng)站CarGurus的數(shù)據(jù),2025年第一季度,,新車的平均售價已然高達49500美元,。與此同時,價格低于3萬美元的新車僅占庫存的13%,而2020年第一季度這一比例為37%,。

根據(jù)CarGurus的一項分析,倘若加征關(guān)稅政策落地實施,,汽車的平均標價可能會上漲超過3300美元,,達到約52800美元。與此同時,,標價在3萬美元以下的汽車占比會進一步下降,,而標價超過5萬美元的汽車占比將增加15%。耶魯大學(xué)預(yù)算實驗室預(yù)計汽車價格的平均漲幅將更為驚人,,達到4000美元,。

特朗普上周對美國全國廣播公司新聞頻道的克里斯汀·韋爾克(Kristen Welker)說:“我不在乎它們是否漲價,因為人們會轉(zhuǎn)而購買美國本土制造的汽車,?!?/p>

即使是二手車也未能逃過關(guān)稅的影響。由于眾多汽車零部件依賴進口,,加征關(guān)稅使得車輛維修成本增加,。

3. 住房

房屋價格本就居高不下,令許多購房者望而卻步,。倘若全面推行征收關(guān)稅政策,,房價勢必會迎來大幅上漲。據(jù)2025年3月全美房屋建造協(xié)會(NAHB)/富國銀行住房市場指數(shù)顯示,,建筑商估計平均每套住房的建筑成本或?qū)⒃黾?200美元,。

究其原因,是建造房屋所需的眾多材料依賴進口,。例如,,根據(jù)全美房屋建造協(xié)會的數(shù)據(jù),,2024年美國從加拿大進口了118億板英尺的軟木木材,,而軟木木材是房屋建造的主要材料。

全美房屋建造協(xié)會還指出包括電器在內(nèi)的許多其他住宅組件的成本也將增加,?!叭婪课萁ㄔ靺f(xié)會估計,2024年用于新建住宅建設(shè)的所有商品中,,約7.3%來自國外,。”

盡管特朗普政府宣稱目標在于推動企業(yè)在美國本土加大商品的生產(chǎn)力度,,但專家表示,,實現(xiàn)這一目標并非一蹴而就,而是需要數(shù)年甚至數(shù)十年的時間。而且美國國內(nèi)存在諸多無法供應(yīng)或生產(chǎn)的商品,,比如所有從加拿大進口的木材,。

該協(xié)會表示:“考慮到建立額外國內(nèi)供應(yīng)所需的較長籌備周期以及龐大的產(chǎn)能建設(shè)需求,全美房屋建造協(xié)會已敦促總統(tǒng)重新考慮對加拿大,、墨西哥和中國商品加征關(guān)稅的指令,。”

4. 服裝

耶魯大學(xué)預(yù)算實驗室稱,,這些關(guān)稅“對服裝和紡織品的沖擊尤為顯著,,在各類關(guān)稅的綜合影響下,服裝價格預(yù)計將上漲17%”,。

據(jù)耶魯大學(xué)預(yù)算實驗室稱,,皮革制品價格整體漲幅預(yù)計達18.3%,而服裝價格整體漲幅預(yù)計為16.9%,。

5. 酒類

由于美國從歐盟,、澳大利亞和新西蘭等國進口大量葡萄酒,因此酒類價格可能會上漲,。美國還從加拿大,、墨西哥和歐洲進口啤酒。

與其他列入清單的商品情況類似,,酒類價格上漲幅度將取決于生產(chǎn)商,、商品原產(chǎn)國,以及它們將成本上漲壓力向美國消費者轉(zhuǎn)嫁的程度,。這一成本上漲趨勢還將延伸至餐飲行業(yè),,導(dǎo)致餐館和酒吧的酒水售價隨之攀升——消費者就餐時需承擔(dān)更高的消費成本。

6. iPhone及其他科技產(chǎn)品

韋德布什證券公司分析師丹·艾夫斯(Dan Ives)稱,,蘋果公司旗下絕大多數(shù)iPhone均在中國完成生產(chǎn)制造,。分析師稱,對中國征收的“對等”關(guān)稅將導(dǎo)致iPhone成本飆升多達43%,。蘋果公司的其他產(chǎn)品,,包括iPad、Apple Watch和Airpods也將面臨類似的價格上漲壓力,。

受此關(guān)稅政策沖擊的科技企業(yè)不止蘋果一家,。眾多科技公司都依賴來自中國大陸、中國臺灣和越南的產(chǎn)品供應(yīng),,而這些地區(qū)分別被征收46%,、32%和34%的關(guān)稅。

關(guān)稅對不同人群的影響并不相同

專家表示,,隨著食品和服裝等基本生活必需品價格上漲,,相較于其他社會經(jīng)濟群體,低收入家庭將承受更為沉重的成本上升壓力。

耶魯大學(xué)預(yù)算實驗室指出:“從收入占比的角度來看,,關(guān)稅給處于收入階梯底層家庭帶來的負擔(dān),,遠遠重于頂層家庭?!?/p>

據(jù)稅收基金會稱,,從歷史經(jīng)驗來看,關(guān)稅的實施致使企業(yè)與消費者面臨商品及服務(wù)價格上漲,、供應(yīng)數(shù)量減少的局面。在過往案例中,,這進而引發(fā)了收入下滑,、就業(yè)崗位減少和經(jīng)濟產(chǎn)出降低。 (財富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:中慧言-王芳

經(jīng)濟學(xué)家和分析人士稱,,唐納德·特朗普總統(tǒng)本周對數(shù)十個國家推行全面關(guān)稅政策,,這將給美國消費者帶來巨大的價格沖擊。從服裝到iPhone,,從住房到汽車,,美國民眾生活的方方面面都可能受到影響——更不必提及因股市崩盤導(dǎo)致退休賬戶縮水了。

耶魯大學(xué)預(yù)算實驗室估計,,受本周新宣布的關(guān)稅舉措以及今年早些時候出臺的關(guān)稅政策影響,,普通美國家庭每年將額外承擔(dān)3800美元的開支。這些關(guān)稅包括對所有進口商品普遍加征的10%的關(guān)稅,,以及依據(jù)特殊計算公式,,針對60個國家征收的特定附加關(guān)稅,這些國家面臨著更高的稅率,。而在此之前,,美國就已對加拿大、中國,、墨西哥加征關(guān)稅,,同時對汽車、鋼鐵和鋁等關(guān)鍵品類也征收了關(guān)稅,。美國整體經(jīng)濟每年或?qū)p失1000億至1800億美元,。

右傾的稅收基金會(Tax Foundation)稱,此次實施的關(guān)稅政策是自20世紀80年代以來對美國消費者施加的最大規(guī)模增稅措施,。高盛集團(Goldman Sachs)公共投資首席投資官阿希什·沙阿(Ashish Shah)在上周四的一場媒體活動中表示:"本質(zhì)上,,這等同于對消費者征稅?!毕M者將“承擔(dān)商品價格上漲的成本”,。

目前要確切知道這些對進口商品所加征的關(guān)稅將如何影響價格,甚至最終稅率會是多少,還為時尚早,。特朗普并未將談判的可能性完全排除在外,。但以下是一些金融分析師和經(jīng)濟學(xué)家根據(jù)目前情況對價格上漲的預(yù)測。

1. 食品雜貨

在美國總統(tǒng)大選期間,,雞蛋價格高企成為備受矚目的突出問題,,特朗普曾表示他將在就任總統(tǒng)的第一天就降低雞蛋價格。專家表示,,隨著關(guān)稅政策的宣布,,不僅雞蛋價格不會下降,而且許多其他易腐食品雜貨的成本很可能在本月底前上漲,。據(jù)美國食品藥品監(jiān)督管理局稱,,美國整體食品供應(yīng)中,約有15%依賴進口,。

預(yù)計牛油果,、香蕉、葡萄和甜瓜等農(nóng)產(chǎn)品的價格都會上漲,,牛肉,、奶酪、巧克力,、咖啡,、橄欖油、海鮮等商品的價格也會上漲,。耶魯大學(xué)預(yù)算實驗室稱,,新鮮農(nóng)產(chǎn)品的價格漲幅或?qū)⒏鼮轱@著。

2. 汽車

即便特朗普未推行關(guān)稅政策,,汽車價格也已飆升到令眾多消費者望而卻步的高位,。根據(jù)汽車信息網(wǎng)站CarGurus的數(shù)據(jù),2025年第一季度,,新車的平均售價已然高達49500美元,。與此同時,價格低于3萬美元的新車僅占庫存的13%,,而2020年第一季度這一比例為37%,。

根據(jù)CarGurus的一項分析,倘若加征關(guān)稅政策落地實施,,汽車的平均標價可能會上漲超過3300美元,,達到約52800美元。與此同時,,標價在3萬美元以下的汽車占比會進一步下降,,而標價超過5萬美元的汽車占比將增加15%,。耶魯大學(xué)預(yù)算實驗室預(yù)計汽車價格的平均漲幅將更為驚人,達到4000美元,。

特朗普上周對美國全國廣播公司新聞頻道的克里斯汀·韋爾克(Kristen Welker)說:“我不在乎它們是否漲價,,因為人們會轉(zhuǎn)而購買美國本土制造的汽車?!?/p>

即使是二手車也未能逃過關(guān)稅的影響,。由于眾多汽車零部件依賴進口,加征關(guān)稅使得車輛維修成本增加,。

3. 住房

房屋價格本就居高不下,,令許多購房者望而卻步。倘若全面推行征收關(guān)稅政策,,房價勢必會迎來大幅上漲,。據(jù)2025年3月全美房屋建造協(xié)會(NAHB)/富國銀行住房市場指數(shù)顯示,建筑商估計平均每套住房的建筑成本或?qū)⒃黾?200美元,。

究其原因,是建造房屋所需的眾多材料依賴進口,。例如,,根據(jù)全美房屋建造協(xié)會的數(shù)據(jù),2024年美國從加拿大進口了118億板英尺的軟木木材,,而軟木木材是房屋建造的主要材料,。

全美房屋建造協(xié)會還指出包括電器在內(nèi)的許多其他住宅組件的成本也將增加?!叭婪课萁ㄔ靺f(xié)會估計,,2024年用于新建住宅建設(shè)的所有商品中,約7.3%來自國外,?!?

盡管特朗普政府宣稱目標在于推動企業(yè)在美國本土加大商品的生產(chǎn)力度,但專家表示,,實現(xiàn)這一目標并非一蹴而就,,而是需要數(shù)年甚至數(shù)十年的時間。而且美國國內(nèi)存在諸多無法供應(yīng)或生產(chǎn)的商品,,比如所有從加拿大進口的木材,。

該協(xié)會表示:“考慮到建立額外國內(nèi)供應(yīng)所需的較長籌備周期以及龐大的產(chǎn)能建設(shè)需求,全美房屋建造協(xié)會已敦促總統(tǒng)重新考慮對加拿大,、墨西哥和中國商品加征關(guān)稅的指令,。”

4. 服裝

耶魯大學(xué)預(yù)算實驗室稱,,這些關(guān)稅“對服裝和紡織品的沖擊尤為顯著,,在各類關(guān)稅的綜合影響下,,服裝價格預(yù)計將上漲17%”。

據(jù)耶魯大學(xué)預(yù)算實驗室稱,,皮革制品價格整體漲幅預(yù)計達18.3%,,而服裝價格整體漲幅預(yù)計為16.9%。

5. 酒類

由于美國從歐盟,、澳大利亞和新西蘭等國進口大量葡萄酒,,因此酒類價格可能會上漲。美國還從加拿大,、墨西哥和歐洲進口啤酒,。

與其他列入清單的商品情況類似,酒類價格上漲幅度將取決于生產(chǎn)商,、商品原產(chǎn)國,,以及它們將成本上漲壓力向美國消費者轉(zhuǎn)嫁的程度。這一成本上漲趨勢還將延伸至餐飲行業(yè),,導(dǎo)致餐館和酒吧的酒水售價隨之攀升——消費者就餐時需承擔(dān)更高的消費成本,。

6. iPhone及其他科技產(chǎn)品

韋德布什證券公司分析師丹·艾夫斯(Dan Ives)稱,蘋果公司旗下絕大多數(shù)iPhone均在中國完成生產(chǎn)制造,。分析師稱,,對中國征收的“對等”關(guān)稅將導(dǎo)致iPhone成本飆升多達43%。蘋果公司的其他產(chǎn)品,,包括iPad,、Apple Watch和Airpods也將面臨類似的價格上漲壓力。

受此關(guān)稅政策沖擊的科技企業(yè)不止蘋果一家,。眾多科技公司都依賴來自中國大陸,、中國臺灣和越南的產(chǎn)品供應(yīng),而這些地區(qū)分別被征收46%,、32%和34%的關(guān)稅,。

關(guān)稅對不同人群的影響并不相同

專家表示,隨著食品和服裝等基本生活必需品價格上漲,,相較于其他社會經(jīng)濟群體,,低收入家庭將承受更為沉重的成本上升壓力。

耶魯大學(xué)預(yù)算實驗室指出:“從收入占比的角度來看,,關(guān)稅給處于收入階梯底層家庭帶來的負擔(dān),,遠遠重于頂層家庭?!?/p>

據(jù)稅收基金會稱,,從歷史經(jīng)驗來看,關(guān)稅的實施致使企業(yè)與消費者面臨商品及服務(wù)價格上漲,、供應(yīng)數(shù)量減少的局面,。在過往案例中,,這進而引發(fā)了收入下滑、就業(yè)崗位減少和經(jīng)濟產(chǎn)出降低,。 (財富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:中慧言-王芳

President Donald Trump imposed sweeping tariffs on dozens of countries this week and that will result in significant price shocks to U.S. consumers, economists and analysts say. Everything from clothes to iPhones to homes to cars could be impacted—not to mention retirement accounts as result of a meltdown in the stock market. (Scroll down to see the list).

The Yale Budget Lab estimates that the average U.S. household will pay $3,800 more annually as a result of levies announced this week and earlier in the year, which include a 10% universal tariff along with specific additional tariffs for 60 countries that face higher rates under an unusual formula. These come in addition to earlier tariffs placed on Canada, China, Mexico, automobiles, and steel and aluminum tariffs. The U.S. economy at large could lose $100 billion to $180 billion annually.

The right-leaning Tax Foundation says the tariffs are the largest tax increase on Americans consumers since the 1980s. “You can view it as a tax on consumers,” said Ashish Shah, chief investment officer of public investing at Goldman Sachs, at a media event Thursday. Consumers are “going to bear the cost of higher goods.”

It’s too soon to know exactly how the tariffs, which are taxes on goods imported from other countries, will affect prices, or even what the final rates will end up being. Trump has left the door open to negotiations. But here are some financial analysts and economists predictions for price increases as things stand now.

1. Groceries

The high price of eggs was a salient issue during the presidential election, and Trump said he would bring down prices on day one of his presidency. With the announced tariffs, not only will prices not drop, but the cost of many other perishable groceries will likely increase before the end of the month, experts say. Around 15% of the U.S.’s overall food supply is imported, according to the Food and Drug Administration.

Prices for produce like avocados, bananas, grapes, and melons are all expected to rise, as are the prices for items including beef, cheese, chocolate, coffee, olive oil, seafood, and more. Fresh produce is expected to see a higher increase, according to the Yale Budget Lab.

2. Cars

Even without Trump’s tariffs, car prices have spiraled so high as to be unaffordable for many. The average price for a new car hit $49,500 in Q1 2025, according to CarGurus. Meanwhile, new vehicles priced under $30,000 accounted for just 13% of inventory, compared to 37% in Q1 2020.

With tariffs, the average list price could increase by over $3,300 to approximately $52,800, according to a CarGurus analysis. Meanwhile, the share of listings priced under $30,000 would decline even more, while vehicles priced above $50,000 would increase by 15%. The Yale Budget Lab puts the average expected increase even higher, at $4,000.

“I couldn’t care less if they raise prices, because people are going to start buying American cars,” Trump told NBC News’ Kristen Welker last week.

Even used cars aren’t immune. The tariffs will likely increase repair costs, because many components are sourced from other countries.

3. Homes

Homes, already historically expensive and priced out of reach for many buyers, would rise dramatically under universal tariffs—builders estimate the average home cost could increase by $9,200, according to the March 2025 National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index.

That’s because many of the supplies used to build homes are imported from other countries. For example, the U.S. imported 11.8 billion board feet of softwood lumber from Canada in 2024, which is a primary component in home building, according to the NAHB.

NAHB also notes that the cost of many other components of homes, including appliances, will increase. “NAHB estimates that approximately 7.3% of all goods used in new residential construction originated from a foreign nation in 2024.”

While Trump has said the goal is for companies to produce more goods and items domestically, experts say doing so will take years—if not decades. And there are many items that the U.S. simply cannot get or produce domestically, like all of that Canadian lumber.

“NAHB has urged the president to reconsider his directive to impose tariffs on Canadian, Mexican and Chinese goods, given the long lead time and significant production capacity needed to create additional domestic supply,” the organization says.

4. Clothing

The tariffs “disproportionately affect clothing and textiles, with apparel prices rising 17% under all tariffs,” according to the Yale Budget Lab.

Leather products and apparel are expected to increase 18.3% and 16.9%, respectively, overall, according to the Yale Budget Lab.

5. Alcohol

Booze prices are likely to increase since the U.S. imports large amounts of wine from countries in the European Union, Australia and New Zealand. It also imports beer from Canada, Mexico and Europe.

As with other items in the list, the scope of the price increases will depend on the producers, what country they are being imported from, and how much of the cost increase they pass onto U.S. consumers. This includes at restaurants and bars—consumers’ nights out just got more expensive.

6. iPhones and other technology

Apple produces most iPhones in China, according to Wedbush analyst Dan Ives. The “reciprocal” tariff placed on the country will send the cost sky-rocketing by as much as 43%, according to analysts. Other Apple products—including iPads, Apple Watches, and Airpods—will face similar increases.

Apple isn’t the only tech company that will be hard hit. Most rely on products from countries like Taiwan, Vietnam, and China. Those countries have been hit with tariffs of 32%, 34%, and 46%, respectively.

Tariffs won’t affect everyone equally

Experts say low-income families will feel the cost of the increases more acutely than other socioeconomic groups, as the price of basics like food and clothing rise.

“Tariffs burden households at the bottom of the income ladder more than those at the top as a share of income,” Yale’s Budget Lab notes.

Historically, tariffs have resulted in higher prices and reduced quantities of goods and services for business and consumers, according to the Tax Foundation. That has resulted in lower income, reduced employment, and lower economic output in the past.

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