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木頭姐:美國經(jīng)濟(jì)陷入“滾動(dòng)式衰退”

Jason Ma
2025-03-25

凱茜·伍德警告稱,,在“滾動(dòng)式衰退”的背景下,,隨著對就業(yè)安全的擔(dān)憂促使美國人傾向于儲蓄而非消費(fèi),,美國經(jīng)濟(jì)可能面臨一至兩個(gè)季度的負(fù)增長,。

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2月20日,,方舟投資創(chuàng)始人兼首席執(zhí)行官凱茜·伍德出席在邁阿密海灘召開的未來投資倡議優(yōu)先峰會(huì)。圖片來源:Joe Raedle—Getty Images

? 方舟投資(Ark Invest)的凱茜·伍德警告稱,,在“滾動(dòng)式衰退”的背景下,,隨著對就業(yè)安全的擔(dān)憂促使美國人傾向于儲蓄而非消費(fèi),美國經(jīng)濟(jì)可能面臨一至兩個(gè)季度的負(fù)增長,。但經(jīng)濟(jì)低迷將有助于美聯(lián)儲獲得降息空間,,并為特朗普政府推行減稅政策創(chuàng)造條件。

方舟投資創(chuàng)始人兼首席執(zhí)行官凱茜·伍德對經(jīng)濟(jì)短期前景持悲觀態(tài)度,,但她預(yù)計(jì)美聯(lián)儲和特朗普政府將很快采取行動(dòng),。

她在周二接受彭博電視臺采訪時(shí)透露,自己在本輪市場下行期間持續(xù)增持特斯拉股票及Coinbase,、Robinhood等加密貨幣相關(guān)資產(chǎn),。

自2月中旬以來,由于投資者擔(dān)憂唐納德·特朗普總統(tǒng)的激進(jìn)關(guān)稅政策和勞動(dòng)力市場收縮可能將經(jīng)濟(jì)拖入衰退,,美股持續(xù)下跌,。華爾街分析師不斷上調(diào)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退概率,部分機(jī)構(gòu)預(yù)測美國陷入經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的概率甚至已達(dá)50%左右,。

伍德對彭博社表示:“我們認(rèn)為美國已經(jīng)陷入了滾動(dòng)式衰退,,實(shí)際上我們將見證若干季度的負(fù)增長,這源于貨幣流通速度的崩潰,?!彼f的滾動(dòng)式衰退是指不同時(shí)期對不同經(jīng)濟(jì)領(lǐng)域造成沖擊的衰退模式。

她補(bǔ)充道,對就業(yè)安全的擔(dān)憂正推動(dòng)美國民眾增加儲蓄,,并預(yù)言將出現(xiàn)一至兩個(gè)季度的負(fù)增長,。但在她看來,這恰好為特朗普政府減稅和美聯(lián)儲降息創(chuàng)造了條件,。

在伍德接受采訪次日,,美聯(lián)儲宣布維持利率不變,但央行官員下調(diào)了全年經(jīng)濟(jì)增長預(yù)期,,并在關(guān)稅上升背景下調(diào)高通脹預(yù)期,。

不過政策制定者基本維持年內(nèi)降息兩次的預(yù)測,且美聯(lián)儲主席杰羅姆·鮑威爾在新聞發(fā)布會(huì)上的總體鴿派基調(diào),,令部分華爾街人士確信“美聯(lián)儲的‘托底政策’”仍有效力——也就是說,,如果經(jīng)濟(jì)惡化,美聯(lián)儲將啟動(dòng)降息,。

伍德預(yù)測,,隨著食品、汽油及部分租金價(jià)格已出現(xiàn)回落,,通脹進(jìn)一步降溫將促使美聯(lián)儲在今年實(shí)施兩到三次降息,,甚至可能更多。此外,,科技創(chuàng)新帶來的"良性通縮"也將助推價(jià)格下行,。

她表示:“我們認(rèn)為美聯(lián)儲在下半年將擁有遠(yuǎn)超市場預(yù)期的政策自由度。實(shí)際降息次數(shù)可能超過我剛才建議的兩到三次,?!?/p>

與此同時(shí),DoubleLine Capital首席執(zhí)行官杰弗里·岡拉克周四向CNBC表示,,聯(lián)邦政府削減預(yù)算將削弱經(jīng)濟(jì)增長,,并警告經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退概率遠(yuǎn)超大多數(shù)人的預(yù)期。

岡拉克稱:“我認(rèn)為未來幾個(gè)季度經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的概率實(shí)際高于50%,。個(gè)人判斷在50%-60%區(qū)間",。

對美國經(jīng)濟(jì)與股市前景的黯淡預(yù)期,再加上曾經(jīng)落后的市場相對優(yōu)異的表現(xiàn),,正逐漸消解所謂"美國例外主義"的市場信仰,。

岡拉克認(rèn)為當(dāng)前或是投資者分散配置、減持美國資產(chǎn)的時(shí)機(jī),,他建議關(guān)注歐洲及新興市場,。

他斷言:“我認(rèn)為這將是一個(gè)長期趨勢?!?(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:劉進(jìn)龍

審校:汪皓

? 方舟投資(Ark Invest)的凱茜·伍德警告稱,,在“滾動(dòng)式衰退”的背景下,,隨著對就業(yè)安全的擔(dān)憂促使美國人傾向于儲蓄而非消費(fèi),美國經(jīng)濟(jì)可能面臨一至兩個(gè)季度的負(fù)增長,。但經(jīng)濟(jì)低迷將有助于美聯(lián)儲獲得降息空間,并為特朗普政府推行減稅政策創(chuàng)造條件,。

方舟投資創(chuàng)始人兼首席執(zhí)行官凱茜·伍德對經(jīng)濟(jì)短期前景持悲觀態(tài)度,,但她預(yù)計(jì)美聯(lián)儲和特朗普政府將很快采取行動(dòng)。

她在周二接受彭博電視臺采訪時(shí)透露,,自己在本輪市場下行期間持續(xù)增持特斯拉股票及Coinbase,、Robinhood等加密貨幣相關(guān)資產(chǎn)。

自2月中旬以來,,由于投資者擔(dān)憂唐納德·特朗普總統(tǒng)的激進(jìn)關(guān)稅政策和勞動(dòng)力市場收縮可能將經(jīng)濟(jì)拖入衰退,,美股持續(xù)下跌。華爾街分析師不斷上調(diào)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退概率,,部分機(jī)構(gòu)預(yù)測美國陷入經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的概率甚至已達(dá)50%左右,。

伍德對彭博社表示:“我們認(rèn)為美國已經(jīng)陷入了滾動(dòng)式衰退,實(shí)際上我們將見證若干季度的負(fù)增長,,這源于貨幣流通速度的崩潰,。”她所說的滾動(dòng)式衰退是指不同時(shí)期對不同經(jīng)濟(jì)領(lǐng)域造成沖擊的衰退模式,。

她補(bǔ)充道,,對就業(yè)安全的擔(dān)憂正推動(dòng)美國民眾增加儲蓄,并預(yù)言將出現(xiàn)一至兩個(gè)季度的負(fù)增長,。但在她看來,,這恰好為特朗普政府減稅和美聯(lián)儲降息創(chuàng)造了條件。

在伍德接受采訪次日,,美聯(lián)儲宣布維持利率不變,,但央行官員下調(diào)了全年經(jīng)濟(jì)增長預(yù)期,并在關(guān)稅上升背景下調(diào)高通脹預(yù)期,。

不過政策制定者基本維持年內(nèi)降息兩次的預(yù)測,,且美聯(lián)儲主席杰羅姆·鮑威爾在新聞發(fā)布會(huì)上的總體鴿派基調(diào),令部分華爾街人士確信“美聯(lián)儲的‘托底政策’”仍有效力——也就是說,,如果經(jīng)濟(jì)惡化,,美聯(lián)儲將啟動(dòng)降息。

伍德預(yù)測,,隨著食品,、汽油及部分租金價(jià)格已出現(xiàn)回落,通脹進(jìn)一步降溫將促使美聯(lián)儲在今年實(shí)施兩到三次降息,,甚至可能更多,。此外,,科技創(chuàng)新帶來的"良性通縮"也將助推價(jià)格下行。

她表示:“我們認(rèn)為美聯(lián)儲在下半年將擁有遠(yuǎn)超市場預(yù)期的政策自由度,。實(shí)際降息次數(shù)可能超過我剛才建議的兩到三次,。”

與此同時(shí),,DoubleLine Capital首席執(zhí)行官杰弗里·岡拉克周四向CNBC表示,,聯(lián)邦政府削減預(yù)算將削弱經(jīng)濟(jì)增長,并警告經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退概率遠(yuǎn)超大多數(shù)人的預(yù)期,。

岡拉克稱:“我認(rèn)為未來幾個(gè)季度經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的概率實(shí)際高于50%,。個(gè)人判斷在50%-60%區(qū)間"。

對美國經(jīng)濟(jì)與股市前景的黯淡預(yù)期,,再加上曾經(jīng)落后的市場相對優(yōu)異的表現(xiàn),,正逐漸消解所謂"美國例外主義"的市場信仰。

岡拉克認(rèn)為當(dāng)前或是投資者分散配置,、減持美國資產(chǎn)的時(shí)機(jī),,他建議關(guān)注歐洲及新興市場。

他斷言:“我認(rèn)為這將是一個(gè)長期趨勢,?!?(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:劉進(jìn)龍

審校:汪皓

? Ark Invest’s Cathie Wood warned that the economy could be headed for one or two negative quarters amid a “rolling recession” as worries about job security spur Americans to save money rather than spend it. But the downturn will help free the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates and set up the Trump administration to lower taxes.

Ark Invest founder and CEO Cathie Wood is bearish on the economy’s short-term prospects but expects the Federal Reserve and the Trump administration to step up soon.

In an interview with Bloomberg TV on Tuesday, she also noted she has been buying Tesla stock and crypto-related assets like Coinbase and Robinhood during the market’s downturn.

Stocks have tumbled since mid-February as investors worry that President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariffs and workforce cuts will tip the economy into a recession. Wall Street forecasters have been hiking recession odds, with some putting them around 50%.

“We think we’ve been in a rolling recession and that we are actually going to see some negative quarters here and that’s because the velocity of money is collapsing,” Wood told Bloomberg, referring to economic downturns that affect different sectors at different times.

She added that worries about job security are prompting Americans to save more of their cash and predicted one or two negative quarters. But in her view, that will set up the Trump administration for tax cuts and the Fed for rate cuts.

The day after Wood spoke, the Fed kept rates steady while central bankers lowered their growth forecasts for the year and lifted their inflation expectations amid higher tariffs.

But policymakers also largely maintained views for two rate cuts this year, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s generally dovish tone during his news conference assured some on Wall Street that the “Fed put” remains in play, meaning rates will fall if the economy worsens.

For her part, Wood sees two or three rate cuts this year—or perhaps even more—as inflation cools further, with prices for food, gasoline and some rents already coming down. In addition, innovation also leads to “good deflation,” contributing to a further easing of prices.

“We think the Fed is going to have many more degrees of freedom in the second half of this year than most people think,” she said. “We could see more than the number I just suggested, two to three cuts.”

Meanwhile, DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffrey Gundlach told CNBC on Thursday that the federal government’s budget cuts will weaken economic growth and warned the chance of a recession is higher than most people believe.

“I actually think it’s higher than 50% coming in the next few quarters,” Gundlach said. “I think 50 to 60 (percent) is where I am.”

Dimmer views of the US economy and stocks, coupled with relative outperformance in once-lagging markets, have eroded the belief in so-called American exceptionalism.

Gundlach thinks it’s probably time for investors to diversify away from US assets, pointing to Europe and emerging markets.

“I think that’s going to be a long-term trend,” he said.

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