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OpenAI要建5千兆瓦數(shù)據(jù)中心,,專家斥其癡人說(shuō)夢(mèng)

David Meyer
2024-10-13

OPENAI表示,,它下步要建的數(shù)據(jù)中心,,每一個(gè)的電力需求都達(dá)到了5千兆瓦,。

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OpenAI公司CEO山姆·奧特曼。DAVID PAUL MORRIS—BLOOMBERG/GETTY IMAGES

為了研發(fā)能達(dá)到真人水平的新一代人工智能系統(tǒng),,OpenAI希望美國(guó)政府能夠幫助它開展大型數(shù)據(jù)中心的建設(shè),,但這種數(shù)據(jù)中心的耗電量是極其驚人的,甚至不亞于一些美國(guó)大城市的全部用電量,。有專家甚至表示,,現(xiàn)階段美國(guó)不可能有人能夠滿足這種等級(jí)的能源需求。

幾個(gè)星期前,,奧特曼等AI領(lǐng)域的專家在白宮參加了一場(chǎng)關(guān)于基建問(wèn)題的會(huì)議,。拜登政府隨后宣布,政府各部門將協(xié)調(diào)一致,,加快建設(shè)新的人工智能數(shù)據(jù)中心,,“以符合經(jīng)濟(jì)、國(guó)家安全和環(huán)境目標(biāo)”,。

那么,,OpenAI到底需要美國(guó)政府提供哪些幫助?9月下旬,,彭博社和《紐約時(shí)報(bào)》陸續(xù)披露了更多細(xì)節(jié),。其中有一點(diǎn)格外引人關(guān)注——OpenAI表示,它下步要建的數(shù)據(jù)中心,,每一個(gè)的電力需求都達(dá)到了5千兆瓦,。

5千兆瓦是什么概念?這是一個(gè)極其驚人的用電量,,大概相當(dāng)于5個(gè)核反應(yīng)堆的輸出,,約等于邁阿密這樣一個(gè)大城市的用電量。這幾乎相當(dāng)于目前一個(gè)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的大型數(shù)據(jù)中心100倍的耗電量,。據(jù)《紐約時(shí)報(bào)》報(bào)道,,OpenAI在提出自己的提案后,甚至引來(lái)了一名日本官員的笑聲,。

能源公司Constellation Energy的CEO喬·多明格斯對(duì)彭博社表示,,他已經(jīng)聽說(shuō)了奧特曼想建5到7個(gè)這樣的數(shù)據(jù)中心??萍寄茉囱芯抗綝igiconomist的創(chuàng)始人亞歷克斯·德弗里斯指出,,7臺(tái)5千兆瓦機(jī)組的發(fā)電量“相當(dāng)于紐約州總用電量的2倍,。”

他還表示:“這是一個(gè)非常極端的數(shù)字,,從全球發(fā)電量的角度來(lái)看,,光是這幾個(gè)數(shù)據(jù)中心,就要消耗全球1%以上的用電量,?!?/p>

奧特曼9月下旬還發(fā)表了一篇博文,描繪了這個(gè)世界在AI的加持下,,將迎來(lái)怎樣光明的未來(lái),。所以不難看出,他為什么要這么認(rèn)真地推動(dòng)這些數(shù)據(jù)中心的建設(shè),。(我們向OpenAI提出多次置評(píng)請(qǐng)求,,但對(duì)方并未回應(yīng)。)

在生成式人工智能領(lǐng)域,,OpenAI目前是當(dāng)之無(wú)愧的領(lǐng)軍者,,但是除非這個(gè)領(lǐng)域出現(xiàn)了某些重大的技術(shù)革新,否則OpenAI要想保住自己的優(yōu)勢(shì)地位,,就要持續(xù)不斷地“堆算力”,。據(jù)《紐約時(shí)報(bào)》報(bào)道,這些新一代數(shù)據(jù)中心每個(gè)將耗資約1000億美元,,它包含了200萬(wàn)個(gè)AI芯片,,這也就是為什么它的耗電量會(huì)高達(dá)恐怖的5千兆瓦。

1000億美元和5千兆瓦這兩個(gè)數(shù)字都指向了一個(gè)答案——那就是微軟和OpenAI正在為下一代AI技術(shù)研發(fā)的“星際之門”超級(jí)計(jì)算集群,。無(wú)獨(dú)有偶,,谷歌母公司Alphabet也在9月19日宣布,它將斥資33億美元在南卡羅來(lái)納州建設(shè)兩個(gè)尖端數(shù)據(jù)中心,。

德弗里斯在研究AI之前,,主要研究的是虛擬貨幣的用電量問(wèn)題。他指出,,為了管理用電需求的高峰,,電力公司的電網(wǎng)一般是有備用容量的,但是數(shù)據(jù)中心卻需要持續(xù)運(yùn)行,?!艾F(xiàn)在整個(gè)邁阿密能有多少電網(wǎng)一直處于閑置狀態(tài)呢?”他問(wèn)道,。

雖然這些數(shù)據(jù)中心尚未開建,但是OpenAI的這個(gè)用電需求無(wú)疑是迄今為止所有科技公司里最大的,。但它并非唯一的用電大戶,,其他一些AI也表示,,自己需要更大、更耗電的數(shù)據(jù)中心,。今年3月份,,亞馬遜網(wǎng)絡(luò)服務(wù)(Amazon Web Services)收購(gòu)了賓夕法尼亞州的一個(gè)數(shù)據(jù)中心,這個(gè)數(shù)據(jù)中心就建在美國(guó)的薩斯奎哈納核電站,,該核電站的發(fā)電量為2.5千兆瓦,。該數(shù)據(jù)中心的賣主Talen能源公司表示,亞馬遜網(wǎng)絡(luò)服務(wù)在這里的用電量高達(dá)960兆瓦,。而就在9月下旬,,微軟剛剛與與Constellation能源公司達(dá)成協(xié)議,重啟位于美國(guó)賓州的三里島核電站,。從2028年起,,它將為微軟數(shù)據(jù)中心提供835兆瓦的核電。

Constellation能源公司CEO多明格斯當(dāng)時(shí)表示,,核電是“唯一能滿足超大規(guī)模數(shù)據(jù)中心的用電需求的無(wú)碳能源,。”

對(duì)于OpenAI提出的5千兆瓦的需求,,多明格斯對(duì)彭博社表示:“我們現(xiàn)在所談的這個(gè)問(wèn)題,,不僅以前沒有被解決過(guò),而且我本人作為一名工程師,,作為在這個(gè)行業(yè)里成長(zhǎng)起來(lái)的人,,我認(rèn)為這是不可能實(shí)現(xiàn)的。特別是在要解決國(guó)家安全問(wèn)題的這么一個(gè)時(shí)間框架下,,這肯定是不可能的,。”

在大型科技公司不遺余力地推動(dòng)大型數(shù)據(jù)中心建設(shè)的同時(shí),,美國(guó)各地乃至世界各國(guó)卻在幫著他們踩剎車,,因?yàn)樗麄儞?dān)心這會(huì)給當(dāng)?shù)氐挠秒姾陀盟斐捎绊憽@些數(shù)據(jù)中心不僅耗電量巨大,而且還需要不間斷地用風(fēng)冷或水冷技術(shù)給數(shù)據(jù)中心的設(shè)備降溫,,而水冷顯然更適合這些現(xiàn)代化的高性能設(shè)備,。

在美國(guó),弗吉尼亞州,、佐治亞州,、亞利桑那州、阿肯色州和伊利諾伊州等地近期都出臺(tái)了新的地方性法律,,或者是用增稅等政策來(lái)“勸退”那些想在當(dāng)?shù)亟〝?shù)據(jù)中心的公司,。白宮此前曾表示,那些已經(jīng)退役的火電廠可以再次“披掛上陣”,,為數(shù)據(jù)中心提供必要電力——而且重要的是,,這些火電廠本來(lái)就已經(jīng)連上了電網(wǎng),。但是從目前來(lái)看,這種可操作的空間仍然是相當(dāng)有限的,。

德弗里斯表示:“這些科技公司之所以大力推動(dòng)數(shù)據(jù)中心建設(shè),,是因?yàn)樗麄冊(cè)跀U(kuò)張上面臨著越來(lái)越多的困難?!彼赋?,歐洲斯堪的納維亞半島地區(qū)近年來(lái)的經(jīng)驗(yàn)表明,數(shù)據(jù)中心并沒有像那些科技公司聲稱的那樣,,為當(dāng)?shù)貏?chuàng)造大量的就業(yè)機(jī)會(huì),。“而且數(shù)據(jù)中心行業(yè)發(fā)現(xiàn),,它們創(chuàng)造出的價(jià)值可能還沒有它們攫取的多,。”

還有一個(gè)問(wèn)題也值得注意,,那就是奧特曼在說(shuō)數(shù)字的時(shí)候,,也是一個(gè)經(jīng)常“語(yǔ)不驚人死不休”的人,。早在今年2月份,,《華爾街日?qǐng)?bào)》就報(bào)道稱,奧特曼要融資7萬(wàn)億美元,,來(lái)采購(gòu)AI技術(shù)所需的AI芯片和電力,。《紐約時(shí)報(bào)》9月下旬的報(bào)道也表示,,據(jù)最新消息來(lái)源證實(shí),,奧特曼本人確實(shí)吹過(guò)這個(gè)數(shù)字,但是OpenAI公司則否認(rèn)了有這么一個(gè)萬(wàn)億美元級(jí)別的大項(xiàng)目,。

“7萬(wàn)億”這個(gè)數(shù)字也因此遭到了不少人的嘲笑,。《紐約時(shí)報(bào)》還報(bào)道稱,,奧特曼“已經(jīng)將他的目標(biāo)下調(diào)到了幾千億美元級(jí),。”(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:樸成奎

OpenAI公司CEO山姆·奧特曼,。DAVID PAUL MORRIS—BLOOMBERG/GETTY IMAGES

為了研發(fā)能達(dá)到真人水平的新一代人工智能系統(tǒng),,OpenAI希望美國(guó)政府能夠幫助它開展大型數(shù)據(jù)中心的建設(shè),但這種數(shù)據(jù)中心的耗電量是極其驚人的,,甚至不亞于一些美國(guó)大城市的全部用電量,。有專家甚至表示,現(xiàn)階段美國(guó)不可能有人能夠滿足這種等級(jí)的能源需求,。

幾個(gè)星期前,,奧特曼等AI領(lǐng)域的專家在白宮參加了一場(chǎng)關(guān)于基建問(wèn)題的會(huì)議,。拜登政府隨后宣布,,政府各部門將協(xié)調(diào)一致,,加快建設(shè)新的人工智能數(shù)據(jù)中心,“以符合經(jīng)濟(jì),、國(guó)家安全和環(huán)境目標(biāo)”,。

那么,OpenAI到底需要美國(guó)政府提供哪些幫助,?9月下旬,,彭博社和《紐約時(shí)報(bào)》陸續(xù)披露了更多細(xì)節(jié)。其中有一點(diǎn)格外引人關(guān)注——OpenAI表示,,它下步要建的數(shù)據(jù)中心,,每一個(gè)的電力需求都達(dá)到了5千兆瓦。

5千兆瓦是什么概念,?這是一個(gè)極其驚人的用電量,,大概相當(dāng)于5個(gè)核反應(yīng)堆的輸出,約等于邁阿密這樣一個(gè)大城市的用電量,。這幾乎相當(dāng)于目前一個(gè)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的大型數(shù)據(jù)中心100倍的耗電量,。據(jù)《紐約時(shí)報(bào)》報(bào)道,OpenAI在提出自己的提案后,,甚至引來(lái)了一名日本官員的笑聲,。

能源公司Constellation Energy的CEO喬·多明格斯對(duì)彭博社表示,他已經(jīng)聽說(shuō)了奧特曼想建5到7個(gè)這樣的數(shù)據(jù)中心,??萍寄茉囱芯抗綝igiconomist的創(chuàng)始人亞歷克斯·德弗里斯指出,7臺(tái)5千兆瓦機(jī)組的發(fā)電量“相當(dāng)于紐約州總用電量的2倍,?!?/p>

他還表示:“這是一個(gè)非常極端的數(shù)字,從全球發(fā)電量的角度來(lái)看,,光是這幾個(gè)數(shù)據(jù)中心,,就要消耗全球1%以上的用電量?!?/p>

奧特曼9月下旬還發(fā)表了一篇博文,,描繪了這個(gè)世界在AI的加持下,將迎來(lái)怎樣光明的未來(lái),。所以不難看出,,他為什么要這么認(rèn)真地推動(dòng)這些數(shù)據(jù)中心的建設(shè)。(我們向OpenAI提出多次置評(píng)請(qǐng)求,,但對(duì)方并未回應(yīng),。)

在生成式人工智能領(lǐng)域,,OpenAI目前是當(dāng)之無(wú)愧的領(lǐng)軍者,但是除非這個(gè)領(lǐng)域出現(xiàn)了某些重大的技術(shù)革新,,否則OpenAI要想保住自己的優(yōu)勢(shì)地位,,就要持續(xù)不斷地“堆算力”。據(jù)《紐約時(shí)報(bào)》報(bào)道,,這些新一代數(shù)據(jù)中心每個(gè)將耗資約1000億美元,,它包含了200萬(wàn)個(gè)AI芯片,這也就是為什么它的耗電量會(huì)高達(dá)恐怖的5千兆瓦,。

1000億美元和5千兆瓦這兩個(gè)數(shù)字都指向了一個(gè)答案——那就是微軟和OpenAI正在為下一代AI技術(shù)研發(fā)的“星際之門”超級(jí)計(jì)算集群,。無(wú)獨(dú)有偶,谷歌母公司Alphabet也在9月19日宣布,,它將斥資33億美元在南卡羅來(lái)納州建設(shè)兩個(gè)尖端數(shù)據(jù)中心,。

德弗里斯在研究AI之前,主要研究的是虛擬貨幣的用電量問(wèn)題,。他指出,,為了管理用電需求的高峰,電力公司的電網(wǎng)一般是有備用容量的,,但是數(shù)據(jù)中心卻需要持續(xù)運(yùn)行,。“現(xiàn)在整個(gè)邁阿密能有多少電網(wǎng)一直處于閑置狀態(tài)呢,?”他問(wèn)道,。

雖然這些數(shù)據(jù)中心尚未開建,但是OpenAI的這個(gè)用電需求無(wú)疑是迄今為止所有科技公司里最大的,。但它并非唯一的用電大戶,,其他一些AI也表示,自己需要更大,、更耗電的數(shù)據(jù)中心,。今年3月份,亞馬遜網(wǎng)絡(luò)服務(wù)(Amazon Web Services)收購(gòu)了賓夕法尼亞州的一個(gè)數(shù)據(jù)中心,,這個(gè)數(shù)據(jù)中心就建在美國(guó)的薩斯奎哈納核電站,,該核電站的發(fā)電量為2.5千兆瓦。該數(shù)據(jù)中心的賣主Talen能源公司表示,,亞馬遜網(wǎng)絡(luò)服務(wù)在這里的用電量高達(dá)960兆瓦,。而就在9月下旬,微軟剛剛與與Constellation能源公司達(dá)成協(xié)議,,重啟位于美國(guó)賓州的三里島核電站,。從2028年起,它將為微軟數(shù)據(jù)中心提供835兆瓦的核電。

Constellation能源公司CEO多明格斯當(dāng)時(shí)表示,,核電是“唯一能滿足超大規(guī)模數(shù)據(jù)中心的用電需求的無(wú)碳能源,。”

對(duì)于OpenAI提出的5千兆瓦的需求,,多明格斯對(duì)彭博社表示:“我們現(xiàn)在所談的這個(gè)問(wèn)題,,不僅以前沒有被解決過(guò),而且我本人作為一名工程師,,作為在這個(gè)行業(yè)里成長(zhǎng)起來(lái)的人,,我認(rèn)為這是不可能實(shí)現(xiàn)的。特別是在要解決國(guó)家安全問(wèn)題的這么一個(gè)時(shí)間框架下,,這肯定是不可能的?!?/p>

在大型科技公司不遺余力地推動(dòng)大型數(shù)據(jù)中心建設(shè)的同時(shí),,美國(guó)各地乃至世界各國(guó)卻在幫著他們踩剎車,因?yàn)樗麄儞?dān)心這會(huì)給當(dāng)?shù)氐挠秒姾陀盟斐捎绊憽@些數(shù)據(jù)中心不僅耗電量巨大,,而且還需要不間斷地用風(fēng)冷或水冷技術(shù)給數(shù)據(jù)中心的設(shè)備降溫,,而水冷顯然更適合這些現(xiàn)代化的高性能設(shè)備。

在美國(guó),,弗吉尼亞州,、佐治亞州、亞利桑那州,、阿肯色州和伊利諾伊州等地近期都出臺(tái)了新的地方性法律,,或者是用增稅等政策來(lái)“勸退”那些想在當(dāng)?shù)亟〝?shù)據(jù)中心的公司。白宮此前曾表示,,那些已經(jīng)退役的火電廠可以再次“披掛上陣”,,為數(shù)據(jù)中心提供必要電力——而且重要的是,這些火電廠本來(lái)就已經(jīng)連上了電網(wǎng),。但是從目前來(lái)看,,這種可操作的空間仍然是相當(dāng)有限的。

德弗里斯表示:“這些科技公司之所以大力推動(dòng)數(shù)據(jù)中心建設(shè),,是因?yàn)樗麄冊(cè)跀U(kuò)張上面臨著越來(lái)越多的困難,。”他指出,,歐洲斯堪的納維亞半島地區(qū)近年來(lái)的經(jīng)驗(yàn)表明,,數(shù)據(jù)中心并沒有像那些科技公司聲稱的那樣,為當(dāng)?shù)貏?chuàng)造大量的就業(yè)機(jī)會(huì),?!岸覕?shù)據(jù)中心行業(yè)發(fā)現(xiàn),它們創(chuàng)造出的價(jià)值可能還沒有它們攫取的多?!?/p>

還有一個(gè)問(wèn)題也值得注意,,那就是奧特曼在說(shuō)數(shù)字的時(shí)候,也是一個(gè)經(jīng)?!罢Z(yǔ)不驚人死不休”的人,。早在今年2月份,《華爾街日?qǐng)?bào)》就報(bào)道稱,,奧特曼要融資7萬(wàn)億美元,,來(lái)采購(gòu)AI技術(shù)所需的AI芯片和電力?!都~約時(shí)報(bào)》9月下旬的報(bào)道也表示,,據(jù)最新消息來(lái)源證實(shí),奧特曼本人確實(shí)吹過(guò)這個(gè)數(shù)字,,但是OpenAI公司則否認(rèn)了有這么一個(gè)萬(wàn)億美元級(jí)別的大項(xiàng)目,。

“7萬(wàn)億”這個(gè)數(shù)字也因此遭到了不少人的嘲笑?!都~約時(shí)報(bào)》還報(bào)道稱,,奧特曼“已經(jīng)將他的目標(biāo)下調(diào)到了幾千億美元級(jí)?!保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:樸成奎

To support its ambitions to develop AI systems that would be as intelligent as people, OpenAI wants the U.S. government to help streamline the construction of massive data centers that would suck up as much power as major American cities. But experts are skeptical that anyone is in a position to meet those kind of energy demands.

Two weeks ago, Altman and an assortment of other top AI players had a meeting about infrastructure at the White House. The Biden administration subsequently announced a coordinated push across government to speed up the build-out of new AI data centers “in line with economic, national security, and environmental goals.”

But in the past couple of days, reports from Bloomberg and the New York Times have provided more details about what OpenAI in particular is trying to get from the government: support in its quest to build data centers with power requirements of five gigawatts each.

Five gigawatts is an astonishingly large amount of power. It’s the output of around five nuclear reactors—the kind of power you need for a whole major city like Miami. It’s as much as 100 times the requirement of a standard large data center. The Times reported that OpenAI’s 5GW proposal drew laughter from a Japanese official.

Constellation Energy CEO Joe Dominguez told Bloomberg that he had heard Altman wanted five to seven such data centers. According to Alex de Vries, the founder of tech energy research company Digiconomist, seven 5GW units would have “twice the power consumption of New York State combined.”

“It’s an extreme amount and, from a global electricity perspective, at that point you’re talking about more than 1% of global electricity consumption for just those data centers alone,” he said.

It’s not hard to see why Altman—who this week published a blog post outlining a glorious AI-powered future for humanity—is making this push now. (OpenAI did not respond to multiple requests for comment on the reports.)

OpenAI is currently the leader in generative AI, but—barring some major shift in how the technology works—maintaining that position will require an ever-increasing amount of computing power. Per the Times, each of these futuristic data centers would cost around $100 billion and contain 2 million AI chips, which is where those 5GW of power become necessary.

The $100 billion and 5GW figures strongly suggest that the facilities being pitched here are intended to house the “Stargate” supercomputing clusters that Microsoft and OpenAI have reportedly been planning for OpenAI’s future models. To give some sense of the scale of capital outlay here, Alphabet on Thursday announced that it will spend $3.3 billion building two cutting-edge data centers in South Carolina.

Power companies may have spare capacity in their grids to manage peaks in demand, but data centers need to run continuously, noted de Vries, who focused on the energy demands of the cryptocurrency sector before turning his attention to AI. “How many grids have an entire Miami in spare capacity, all the time?” he asked.

Although OpenAI’s power demand is the biggest that any tech company has so far expressed, some other AI players are also anticipating the need for larger, more power-hungry data centers. In March, Amazon Web Services bought a data center in Pennsylvania that is co-located with the Susquehanna nuclear power station; the plant produces 2.5 gigawatts and the data center’s seller, Talen Energy, said AWS would use up to 960 megawatts. And a week ago, Microsoft struck a deal with Constellation that will see the restart of a Three Mile Island reactor, providing 835 megawatts of carbon-free energy for Microsoft’s data centers from 2028.

Constellation’s Dominguez said at the time that nuclear plants are “the only energy sources that can consistently deliver” on the promise of carbon-free power for the hyperscalers’ new demands.

But regarding OpenAI’s five-gigawatt proposal, he told Bloomberg this week: “Whatever we’re talking about is not only something that’s never been done, but I don’t believe it’s feasible as an engineer, as somebody who grew up in this. It’s certainly not possible under a time frame that’s going to address national security and timing.”

This push for more bigger data centers is also taking place at a time of increasing resistance from local and national governments around the world, who are worried about the impact on their power grids and water supplies—the equipment in data centers needs to be constantly cooled using either air or liquid, with the latter being better suited to cooling modern, high-performance equipment.

In the U.S., new laws and tax rises have recently been used to stymie data-center developments in Virginia, Georgia, Arizona, Arkansas, and Illinois. The White House said last week that retired coal plants would provide useful brownfield sites for data center development—crucially, they already have connections to the grid in place—but for now, space remains scarce.

“One of the reasons [tech companies are] pushing for this is they’re facing increasing difficulties in expanding,” said de Vries. The researcher pointed to recent experiences in Scandinavia that suggest data centers do not create the significant amounts of jobs that their developers claim will come, adding: “The data center industry is getting found out that it’s not delivering as much as is promised for everything that they’re taking.”

It is worth remembering that Altman isn’t shy about coming up with big numbers that end up proving unfeasible. Back in February, the Wall Street Journal reported that he was looking for as much as $7 trillion in funding for new AI chips and for the power needed to run them. This week’s Times article maintains, based on fresh sourcing, that Altman did float that figure, though OpenAI denies that multitrillion-dollar projects were ever on the table.

The $7 trillion figure was widely scoffed at, and the Times reported this week that Altman had “since scaled his ambition down to hundreds of billions of dollars.”

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