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英偉達(dá)股價(jià)持續(xù)下跌,,還能抄底嗎,?

Greg McKenna
2024-09-06

即使經(jīng)過(guò)暴跌之后,英偉達(dá)股價(jià)從年初至今依舊上漲了115%,。

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英偉達(dá)CEO黃仁勛。Lachlan Cunningham—Getty Images

在芯片市場(chǎng)占據(jù)主導(dǎo)地位的英偉達(dá)(Nvidia)的崛起,,與華爾街的人工智能熱潮息息相關(guān),,但周二的市場(chǎng)拋售卻對(duì)這家芯片制造商的股票造成了最嚴(yán)重的沖擊,。英偉達(dá)市值縮水2,790億美元,,這是美國(guó)公司市值的最大單日降幅,周三英偉達(dá)股價(jià)繼續(xù)小幅下跌,。

正如沃倫·巴菲特所說(shuō)的那樣,,“在別人恐慌時(shí)貪婪,在別人貪婪時(shí)恐慌”,,可以帶來(lái)回報(bào),。今年上半年,快速增長(zhǎng)的英偉達(dá)貢獻(xiàn)了標(biāo)普500指數(shù)約30%的總回報(bào)?,F(xiàn)在,,投資者是否有一個(gè)絕佳的機(jī)會(huì),,趁股價(jià)下跌買(mǎi)入這家公司的股票?

即使經(jīng)過(guò)暴跌之后,,英偉達(dá)股價(jià)從年初至今依舊上漲了115%,。但分析師們明確表示,投資者不應(yīng)該期待英偉達(dá)股價(jià)會(huì)繼續(xù)以同樣的幅度上漲,。周三收盤(pán)時(shí),,英偉達(dá)股價(jià)從6月份創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的140.76美元,跌至略高于106美元,。還有一種普遍的觀點(diǎn)認(rèn)為,,盡管英偉達(dá)前幾個(gè)季度的營(yíng)收增長(zhǎng)速度令人震驚,但未來(lái)營(yíng)收增長(zhǎng)必定會(huì)放緩,。

為了理解為什么英偉達(dá)的增長(zhǎng)可能放緩,,可以看看其數(shù)據(jù)中心業(yè)務(wù)。該業(yè)務(wù)是英偉達(dá)的主要收入來(lái)源,。上個(gè)季度,,數(shù)據(jù)中心業(yè)務(wù)的營(yíng)收達(dá)到263億美元,創(chuàng)歷史紀(jì)錄,,同比增長(zhǎng)154%,。然而,這遠(yuǎn)低于前一個(gè)季度427%的營(yíng)收漲幅,。

在英偉達(dá)上周發(fā)布第二季度財(cái)報(bào)前,,美國(guó)財(cái)務(wù)研究與分析中心(CFRA Research)高級(jí)副總裁兼科技股分析師安吉洛·奇諾在接受《財(cái)富》雜志采訪(fǎng)時(shí)表示,英偉達(dá)正在受到“大數(shù)法則”的影響,。他呼吁客戶(hù)在英偉達(dá)召開(kāi)業(yè)績(jī)電話(huà)會(huì)議之前要小心謹(jǐn)慎,。

他說(shuō)道:“但盡管如此,我的意思是看看這家公司的估值,,它當(dāng)前的交易價(jià)格實(shí)際上遠(yuǎn)低于其歷史估值水平,。”

即使英偉達(dá)最近的業(yè)績(jī)超出預(yù)期,,由維瓦克·埃利亞領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的美國(guó)銀行(Bank of America)分析師依舊認(rèn)同這種觀點(diǎn),。埃利亞和他的團(tuán)隊(duì)將英偉達(dá)的股價(jià)目標(biāo)從150美元提高到165美元。奇諾和美國(guó)財(cái)務(wù)研究與分析中心對(duì)英偉達(dá)股票依舊給出買(mǎi)入評(píng)級(jí),,并維持了今年139美元的價(jià)格目標(biāo),。

根據(jù)標(biāo)普全球市場(chǎng)情報(bào)(S&P Global Market Intelligence)的數(shù)據(jù),截至周二收盤(pán),,英偉達(dá)的交易價(jià)格約為稀釋后每股收益的68倍,。去年9月,英偉達(dá)的市盈率為180倍。

奇諾指出,,從長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)來(lái)看,,對(duì)英偉達(dá)最大的擔(dān)憂(yōu)是它在需求開(kāi)始下滑時(shí)的表現(xiàn)。目前對(duì)英偉達(dá)產(chǎn)品的需求遠(yuǎn)高于供給,。在周三上午發(fā)布的一條推文中,,CNBC的吉姆·克萊默表示,他認(rèn)為,,摩根大通資產(chǎn)管理公司(J.P. Morgan Asset Management)市場(chǎng)與投資策略主席邁克爾·塞姆巴萊斯特的一份報(bào)告,,嚴(yán)重影響了英偉達(dá)的股價(jià)。在報(bào)告中,,塞姆巴萊斯特質(zhì)疑谷歌(Google),、亞馬遜(Amazon)、微軟(Microsoft)和Meta等科技巨頭在人工智能領(lǐng)域投入了數(shù)千億美之后,,能否獲得足夠多的回報(bào),。

奇諾認(rèn)為,從長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)來(lái)看答案是肯定的,。

奇諾表示:“因?yàn)槲覀儠?huì)看到這是永久的改變,。未來(lái)會(huì)有更多支持人工智能的設(shè)備,會(huì)有大量網(wǎng)聯(lián)設(shè)備問(wèn)世,。因此需要更多數(shù)據(jù)中心,。”

如果是這樣的話(huà),,投資者現(xiàn)在買(mǎi)入英偉達(dá)股票,,或許并不會(huì)完全錯(cuò)失良機(jī)。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:劉進(jìn)龍

審校:汪皓

在芯片市場(chǎng)占據(jù)主導(dǎo)地位的英偉達(dá)(Nvidia)的崛起,,與華爾街的人工智能熱潮息息相關(guān),,但周二的市場(chǎng)拋售卻對(duì)這家芯片制造商的股票造成了最嚴(yán)重的沖擊。英偉達(dá)市值縮水2,790億美元,,這是美國(guó)公司市值的最大單日降幅,,周三英偉達(dá)股價(jià)繼續(xù)小幅下跌。

正如沃倫·巴菲特所說(shuō)的那樣,,“在別人恐慌時(shí)貪婪,,在別人貪婪時(shí)恐慌”,可以帶來(lái)回報(bào),。今年上半年,,快速增長(zhǎng)的英偉達(dá)貢獻(xiàn)了標(biāo)普500指數(shù)約30%的總回報(bào)?,F(xiàn)在,,投資者是否有一個(gè)絕佳的機(jī)會(huì),趁股價(jià)下跌買(mǎi)入這家公司的股票?

即使經(jīng)過(guò)暴跌之后,,英偉達(dá)股價(jià)從年初至今依舊上漲了115%,。但分析師們明確表示,投資者不應(yīng)該期待英偉達(dá)股價(jià)會(huì)繼續(xù)以同樣的幅度上漲,。周三收盤(pán)時(shí),,英偉達(dá)股價(jià)從6月份創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的140.76美元,跌至略高于106美元,。還有一種普遍的觀點(diǎn)認(rèn)為,,盡管英偉達(dá)前幾個(gè)季度的營(yíng)收增長(zhǎng)速度令人震驚,但未來(lái)營(yíng)收增長(zhǎng)必定會(huì)放緩,。

為了理解為什么英偉達(dá)的增長(zhǎng)可能放緩,,可以看看其數(shù)據(jù)中心業(yè)務(wù)。該業(yè)務(wù)是英偉達(dá)的主要收入來(lái)源,。上個(gè)季度,,數(shù)據(jù)中心業(yè)務(wù)的營(yíng)收達(dá)到263億美元,創(chuàng)歷史紀(jì)錄,,同比增長(zhǎng)154%,。然而,這遠(yuǎn)低于前一個(gè)季度427%的營(yíng)收漲幅,。

在英偉達(dá)上周發(fā)布第二季度財(cái)報(bào)前,,美國(guó)財(cái)務(wù)研究與分析中心(CFRA Research)高級(jí)副總裁兼科技股分析師安吉洛·奇諾在接受《財(cái)富》雜志采訪(fǎng)時(shí)表示,英偉達(dá)正在受到“大數(shù)法則”的影響,。他呼吁客戶(hù)在英偉達(dá)召開(kāi)業(yè)績(jī)電話(huà)會(huì)議之前要小心謹(jǐn)慎,。

他說(shuō)道:“但盡管如此,我的意思是看看這家公司的估值,,它當(dāng)前的交易價(jià)格實(shí)際上遠(yuǎn)低于其歷史估值水平,。”

即使英偉達(dá)最近的業(yè)績(jī)超出預(yù)期,,由維瓦克·埃利亞領(lǐng)導(dǎo)的美國(guó)銀行(Bank of America)分析師依舊認(rèn)同這種觀點(diǎn),。埃利亞和他的團(tuán)隊(duì)將英偉達(dá)的股價(jià)目標(biāo)從150美元提高到165美元。奇諾和美國(guó)財(cái)務(wù)研究與分析中心對(duì)英偉達(dá)股票依舊給出買(mǎi)入評(píng)級(jí),,并維持了今年139美元的價(jià)格目標(biāo),。

根據(jù)標(biāo)普全球市場(chǎng)情報(bào)(S&P Global Market Intelligence)的數(shù)據(jù),截至周二收盤(pán),,英偉達(dá)的交易價(jià)格約為稀釋后每股收益的68倍,。去年9月,英偉達(dá)的市盈率為180倍,。

奇諾指出,,從長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)來(lái)看,,對(duì)英偉達(dá)最大的擔(dān)憂(yōu)是它在需求開(kāi)始下滑時(shí)的表現(xiàn)。目前對(duì)英偉達(dá)產(chǎn)品的需求遠(yuǎn)高于供給,。在周三上午發(fā)布的一條推文中,,CNBC的吉姆·克萊默表示,他認(rèn)為,,摩根大通資產(chǎn)管理公司(J.P. Morgan Asset Management)市場(chǎng)與投資策略主席邁克爾·塞姆巴萊斯特的一份報(bào)告,,嚴(yán)重影響了英偉達(dá)的股價(jià)。在報(bào)告中,,塞姆巴萊斯特質(zhì)疑谷歌(Google),、亞馬遜(Amazon)、微軟(Microsoft)和Meta等科技巨頭在人工智能領(lǐng)域投入了數(shù)千億美之后,,能否獲得足夠多的回報(bào),。

奇諾認(rèn)為,從長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)來(lái)看答案是肯定的,。

奇諾表示:“因?yàn)槲覀儠?huì)看到這是永久的改變,。未來(lái)會(huì)有更多支持人工智能的設(shè)備,會(huì)有大量網(wǎng)聯(lián)設(shè)備問(wèn)世,。因此需要更多數(shù)據(jù)中心,。”

如果是這樣的話(huà),,投資者現(xiàn)在買(mǎi)入英偉達(dá)股票,,或許并不會(huì)完全錯(cuò)失良機(jī)。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:劉進(jìn)龍

審校:汪皓

The rise of Nvidia has been synonymous with Wall Street’s AI-boom, but Tuesday’s market sell-off hit the dominant chip maker’s stock the hardest. Nvidia shed $279 billion in market cap, the biggest ever drop for an American company in a single day, before shares fell slightly further on Wednesday.

As Warren Buffett once said, it can pay “to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful.” Do investors now have a rare opportunity to buy the dip for shares of a fast-growing company that accounted for roughly 30% of the S&P 500’s total returns during the first half of the year?

Even after the plunge, Nvidia’s stock is still up 115% year-to-date. Analysts, though, have made clear investors should not expect shares—which closed just above the $106 mark Wednesday, down from an all-time high of $140.76 in June—to continue appreciating at the same pace. It is also common wisdom that revenue growth will inevitably decelerate given the eye-popping growth of previous quarters.

To get an idea of why Nvidia's growth is poised to slow, consider its data center business, which has been the company’s main revenue driver. Revenue from those operations hit a record $26.3 billion this past quarter, up 154% from a year ago. Nonetheless, it was a far cry from the unit’s 427% revenue bump last quarter.

The company is running into the law of large numbers, Angelo Zino, a senior vice president and tech equity analyst at CFRA Research, said in an interview with Fortune before last week’s Q2 earnings release. He urged caution to his clients heading into the call.

“But that said, listen, I mean, when you look at the valuation of this company, it's trading at a big discount to where it actually historically trades at,” he said.

That message was echoed by Bank of America analysts, a group led by Vivek Arya, even after Nvidia beat expectations in its latest earnings. Arya and his team raised their price target on the stock from $150 to $165. Zino and CFRA maintained its buy rating on the stock, standing pat with a price target of $139 for the year.

As of Tuesday close, Nvidia was trading around 68 times its diluted EPS, per S&P Global Market Intelligence. That’s down from a P/E ratio of 180 last September.

The biggest long-term concern for Nvidia, Zino noted, is what happens when demand, which currently far outstrips supply, begins to dry up. In a tweet Wednesday morning, CNBC’s Jim Cramer said he believed Nvidia’s stock was significantly hurt by a note from Michael Cembalest, the chairman of market and investment strategy at J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Cembalest raised doubts about whether tech giants like Google, Amazon, Microsoft and Meta will earn adequate returns after spending hundreds of billions of dollars on AI-investment.

In the long haul, Zino believes the answer is yes.

“Because that's the kind of shift, the permanent shift we're going to see,” Zino said. “There are just going to be a lot more AI-enabled devices out there, a lot more connected devices out there. And because of that, you're going to need a lot more data centers in the future.”

If so, investors who buy Nvidia now might not completely miss the boat.

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